研究表明美国30%代码已由AI包办，年创百亿美元价值

IT之家2025-06-22

据 The Register 报道，一篇于近期发布的预印本论文显示，美国软件开发者在使用 AI 编程助手方面领先全球。研究通过分析 2018 年至 2024 年间 GitHub 上的 8000 万条代码记录发现，在 2024 年，美国开发者提交的 Python 代码中约有 30.1% 由 AI 生成。该研究由西蒙内・达尼奥蒂（Simone Daniotti）等四位研究人员共同完成。数据显示，在美国...

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生成”的说法在规模上相符。研究团队还提供了另一种基于更高生产率提升假设的估算。他们参考了三项独立的随机对照试验，这些试验报告的生产率提升幅度分别为 16.5%、6.3% 和 26%。据此推算，当 AI 参与度达到 30% 时，其带来的年生产力价值可能在 640 亿至 960 亿美元之间。尽管如此，作者也坦言其研究存在局限性。例如，研究仅限于 GitHub 平台，可能因此遗漏了在中国等地区流行的其他代码托管平台的数据。此外，分析也未考虑 AI 导致代码供给增加，可能反过来拉低相关编程工作市场价值的因素。将 Python 的使用情况作为所有编程语言的代表，以及将开源项目的 AI 采用率推广至所有开发情境，也是研究中存在的假设。总体而言，该论文的作者对 AI 提升生产力持乐观态度，并指出 AI 的应用能激发开发者探索新的软件库，从而拓展其知识体系 —— 前提是这些软件库确实存在，而不是 AI 凭空“捏造”的。在代码编写之外，AI 带来的经济影响可能相对有限。麻省理工学院（MIT）“学院教授”达隆・阿西莫格鲁（Daron Acemoglu）去年发表的论文《AI 的简单宏观经济学（The Simple Macroeconomics of AI）》预测，AI 驱动的生产率提升仅为 0.7% 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