CPO商业化量产提速，这两大光通信巨头迎来增长拐点

Ofweek维科网2025-06-17

在经历了长达半年的市场低迷与技术焦虑后，光通信行业正迎来重大转折点。摩根大通近日发布的重磅研报指出，共封装光学（CPO）技术正在加速迈向商业化，行业龙头 Coherent 与 Lumentum 已在关键赛道上占据有利位置，或将成为下一轮成长周期的核心受益者。01转折：CPO进入爆发前夜CPO 作为将光引擎与交换芯片共同封装的架构，能够有效提升能效比，尤其契合大模型 AI 对数据中心算力与能耗...

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年步入规模化阶段。这标志着光通信技术迭代节奏明显加快，也意味着此前关于 CPO 所引发的“去中介化”、价格战等市场担忧正逐步缓解。02为AI新兴应用场景创造“增量空间”尽管 CPO 技术崛起迅速，但摩根大通明确表示，它并非传统可插拔模块的“终结者”，而是为 AI 驱动的新兴应用场景创造“增量空间”。数据显示，全球可插拔光模块市场规模预计将从 2025 年的 110 亿美元增至 2030 年的 230 亿美元，年复合增长率高达 17%。这意味着在未来几年内，CPO 与可插拔模块将形成“共存+分工”的格局，CPO 主要承载对带宽和能效要求极高的前沿算力任务，而传统模块依然稳守现有数据通信与电信市场。03技术升级之外，将成利润“新引擎”值得关注的是，CPO 不仅是技术升级，更是盈利结构的重塑。据摩根大通测算，Coherent 与 Lumentum 的 CPO 业务毛利率有望超过 50%，远高于传统模块约 30% 的水平。到 2030 年，CPO 有望贡献两家公司 19% 的收入，却将带来 27% 的毛利润，占比提升显著，显示其强劲的利润驱动潜力。这也带动资本市场对两家公司的价值重估。摩根大通将 Coherent 2025 年 12 月目标价由 86 美元上调至 100 美元，维持“增持”评级。分析师 Samik Chatterjee 表示，公司成功穿越了 CPO 转型的“焦虑期”，其广泛的产品组合和灵活的战略布局为中长期增长提供支撑。他预测 Coherent 在 2026 和 2027 财年的营收将分别实现 10% 增长，毛利率分别为 39% 和 40%，每股收益（EPS）预计分别为 4.50 美元和 5.70 美元，后者较市场共识高出约 4%。Lumentum方面，摩根大通也将其目标价从 87 美元上调至 100 美元，认为该公司正在借助电信数据中心互联（DCI）需求恢复，以及Cloudlight推动下的数据通信业务增长，实现全面提速。预计 2026 财年第四季度，Lumentum 单季营收将突破6亿美元，全年EPS分别上调至 4.20 美元（原为 3.95）与 5.90 美元（原为 5.55）。公司最新财报预告亦释放积极信号：第四财季营收区间上调至 4.65–4.75 亿美元，预期运营利润率为 14%–15%，每股收益上调至 0.78–0.85 美元；并提前一个季度预计将在 2026 财年第一季度实现 5 亿美元营收目标。受此提振，多家华尔街投行上调对 Lumentum 的评级与目标价，包括 Rosenblatt 和 Needham 将目标价分别调高至 105 美元，市场情绪由此前的“中性”明显转向“看多”。04产业链全面受益：CPO生态加速成型摩根大通还指出，CPO 商业化的推进正带动上下游产业链价值重估。包括 Broadcom（市场主导者，已推出第三代 CPO 产品）、英伟达（推出基于 CPO 的 Quantum-X800 和 Spectrum-X 平台）、台积电（通过 COUPE 平台切入关键封装技术）、Corning（光纤与连接器供应商）以及 Fabrinet（制造与封装代工）等企业均将在未来几年中受益于这一技术浪潮。05风险：仍需警惕竞争与技术不确定性尽管行业基本面回暖趋势明确，但摩根大通亦提醒投资者关注潜在风险，如技术路径不确定性、客户集中度高、竞争格局变化等问题。因此，行业同时也要给打响“警铃”。整体来看，CPO 正从过去被视为“扰乱者”的角色，转变为支撑整个光通信行业迈向新周期的催化剂。在 AI 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