卓创资讯：库存低位驱动本产季苹果价格上涨

市场资讯2025-05-29

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端　　卓创资讯苹果市场分析师杨军　　【导语】2024/25年产季库存苹果价格上涨幅度较大，东西部产区自春节结束之后，均有不同程度上涨。本产季价格上涨幅度超过多数从业者预期，其主要是受到了库存、需求、心态等多方面因素影响。本产季价格高企、利润率较高，提高从业者对新季苹果价格期望值。　　春节过后产地冷库苹果价格上涨，陕西产区...

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season","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"301299":1,"MACW.SI":0.6},"content_text":"热点栏目\n\n自选股\n数据中心\n行情中心\n资金流向\n模拟交易\n\n客户端\n\n\n　　卓创资讯苹果市场分析师杨军\n　　【导语】2024/25年产季库存苹果价格上涨幅度较大，东西部产区自春节结束之后，均有不同程度上涨。本产季价格上涨幅度超过多数从业者预期，其主要是受到了库存、需求、心态等多方面因素影响。本产季价格高企、利润率较高，提高从业者对新季苹果价格期望值。\n　　春节过后产地冷库苹果价格上涨，陕西产区涨幅最大\n　　2024年秋季苹果入库之后，市场从业者多数持悲观情绪，出货积极性比较高，春节之前产地冷库苹果价格微幅下滑，但是在春节之后，产地冷库苹果价格快速上涨，上涨幅度较大，超过多数市场从业者预期。\n　　2月初至5月下旬山东产区80#以上一二级货源加权价格从3.75元/斤上涨至4.19元/斤，累计上涨0.44元/斤，涨幅11.73%，陕西70#以上货源加权价格从3.02元/斤上涨至3.87元/斤，累计上涨0.85元/斤，累计涨幅28.15%。部分规格货源价格上涨幅度更大，如70#-75#货源价格上涨大幅度达到1.2元/斤左右。\n　　其中陕西产区多数规格货源涨幅高于其他产区，甘肃产区虽然价格同样上涨，但是较多货源在前期销售完成，实际高价位成交的货量比较少。\n\n　　价格驱动因素较多，库存偏低是关键\n　　本产季价格上涨超出较多行业从业人员预期，价格驱动因素较多，主要有以下几个方面：\n　　第一，各产区竞争优势不同，销售前期各司其职。随着产业的发展，不同产区各自的竞争优势逐渐体现。入库完成之后，不同客户根据市场需求，在不同产区采购。2.0元/斤以下的货源主要在山东非主产区采购；2.0-2.5元/斤价位货源主要在咸阳地区采购；2.5-3.0元/斤价位货源主要在庆阳地区采购；3.0元/斤以上货源集中在静宁、庄浪等地区采购。与此同时，栖霞、洛川等传统优势产区在销售前期客商数量偏少，出货偏慢。\n　　第二，冷库存储量偏低，供应整体偏紧。入库完成之后，栖霞和洛川等传统优势产区出货速度偏慢，较多从业者以两地为标杆，普遍认为市场需求较差，对后期行情持悲观态度，外加连续几年亏损，在春节之前普遍销售意愿较强，加快春节前冷库出货速度，导致前期冷库出货量较大。从全国冷库苹果剩余库容比来看，冷库库存剩余量较低，从1月份开始，冷库剩余量已经处于近五年历史同期最低值。偏低的库存与相对稳定的客商需求对价格形成支撑，促使后期价格上涨。\n\n　　第三，市场需求良好，销售渠道不断拓宽\n　　近几年市场总体购买力偏弱，苹果总体需求一般，在这样的环境之下，节日对苹果等水果带动作用提高。从监测市场苹果到货量来看，苹果市场需求量高于往年。春节、清明节、五一等节日期间，市场到货量高于去年。除了线下市场需求增强以外，电商平台、小单车等渠道销售情况良好。出口行业同样表现良好，出口量同比增加8%左右。\n\n　　库存苹果利润情况良好，可能提高从业者对新季苹果价格期望值\n　　随着库存苹果价格不断推高，库存货源利润空间较大。截止到目前不考虑转库等行为情况下，山东利润空间0.5元/斤以上，西北产区利润空间1.0元/斤以上。新季苹果价格除了受到本产季产量等因素影响，旧季库存货源尾期价格、利润率等均会对新季苹果收购价格产生影响。库存苹果利润率较高，可能提高从业者对新季苹果价格期望值。\n\n新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：李铁民","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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