瑞银调查：电动汽车销售仍有望保持增长趋势，看好宝马、比亚迪等

智通财经网05-26

瑞银于近日发布研报称，该行Evidence Lab对电动汽车消费者的第九轮调查(1.05万名参与者)显示，考虑购买纯电动车(BEV)的消费者比例下降至41%(较上年同期下降5个百分点)，考虑购买插电式混合动力车(PHEV)的消费者比例也仅为36%(较上年同期下降5个百分点)——这与多家车企(OEM)提高对PHEV的预期和投资形成反差。尽管如此，瑞银预计电动汽车的整体增长趋势仍将好于调查所显示的情况...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1297505.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>瑞银于近日发布研报称，该行Evidence Lab对电动汽车消费者的第九轮调查(1.05万名参与者)显示，考虑购买纯电动车(BEV)的消费者比例下降至41%(较上年同期下降5个百分点)，考虑购买插电式混合动力车(PHEV)的消费者比例也仅为36%(较上年同期下降5个百分点)——这与多家车企(OEM)提高对PHEV的预期和投资形成反差。尽管如此，瑞银预计电动汽车的整体增长趋势仍将好于调查所显示的情况...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1297505.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"EVS.SI","symbol_name":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility 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Lab对电动汽车消费者的第九轮调查(1.05万名参与者)显示，考虑购买纯电动车(BEV)的消费者比例下降至41%(较上年同期下降5个百分点)，考虑购买插电式混合动力车(PHEV)的消费者比例也仅为36%(较上年同期下降5个百分点)——这与多家车企(OEM)提高对PHEV的预期和投资形成反差。尽管如此，瑞银预计电动汽车的整体增长趋势仍将好于调查所显示的情况，销量仍有望增长。在瑞银的模型中，该行目前预测，2024年至2027年全球电动汽车销量年复合增长率为17%(此前预测为22%)，主要由于美国市场增长趋势趋缓。该行预测，2025年全球电动汽车渗透率为25%(此前预测为26%)，2030年将升至41%(此前预测为49%)。瑞银表示，对电动汽车整体增长趋势仍保持乐观的原因包括：1)中国汽车产业正加速迈向以BEV为核心的未来;2)欧洲市场仍受到碳排放法规的推动，且OEM刚开始进入关键的3万欧元以下细分市场;3)调查显示，价格不再是阻碍消费者购买电动汽车的最重要因素——“充电基础设施不完善”以及“续航里程有限”是消费者对BEV的主要担忧。与此同时，瑞银指出，此次调查还包括以下亮点：1)在中国，本土品牌在高端市场中的受欢迎程度持续上升，比亚迪(01211)在高位上趋于稳定;2)比亚迪是唯一一个在出口市场迅速获得吸引力的中国品牌;3)特斯拉(TSLA.US)在欧洲受挫最严重，在中国也被本土品牌抢占市场份额，越来越少的消费者认为其是技术领导者;4)宝马(BMWYY.US)巩固了其在中国以外地区全球第二大BEV品牌的地位，并仍是中国市场中最受欢迎的外国传统OEM。瑞银指出，多数OEM已针对中国以外地区BEV销售放缓的趋势做出了反应——调整了产品计划，更加注重灵活性，以应对区域性趋势和不断上升的贸易壁垒。同时，真正的全球OEM必须推进BEV创新，明智地利用中国的技术和成本优势。瑞银认为，最有竞争力的OEM需具备：1)强大的BEV产品力;2)高度的战略灵活性;3)相对有限的ICE(内燃机)投资需求(同时保持内燃机车型盈利能力)。按照这些标准，瑞银认为，宝马、比亚迪、起亚、丰田汽车(TM.US)和通用汽车(GM.US)在电动化主题下处于最佳位置，保时捷、沃尔沃汽车和蔚来(NIO.US)则处于不利地位。具体来说，瑞银认为，1)宝马——在传统OEM中对电动转型最有前瞻性，Neue Klasse平台将于2025年下半年推出，具备较强电动化产品力和盈利弹性。2)比亚迪——拥有完整垂直整合能力，是唯一在全球化扩张中取得初步成果的中国OEM，具备显著成本优势。3)丰田——尽管电动车发展节奏较慢，但战略灵活，强大的ICE盈利能力可为电动化投入提供支撑。4)起亚——凭借现代集团平台优势和产品力，表现稳定。5)通用——在北美市场战略调整较为积极，同时具备价格带布局能力。此外，瑞银认为，1)保时捷——产品组合单一，电动化转型进度滞后。2)沃尔沃汽车——品牌电动化程度高，但销量基数有限。3)蔚来——品牌认知集中在中国市场，海外扩张难度大，且面临资金和交付挑战。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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