腾讯控股：梳理46款产品进展亮点，投资带来IP、端游、出海等方面独有能力

光大海外2025-05-10

梳理46款产品进展亮点，投资带来IP、端游、出海等方面独有能力——腾讯控股（0700.HK）游戏业务更新点评分析师：付天姿（执业证书编号：S0930517040002）分析师：赵越（执业证书编号：S0930524020001）要点腾讯于SPARK 2025游戏发布会上展示46款产品最新进展，包括旗舰游戏《王者荣耀》、《三角洲行动》，重点自研新品《王者荣耀世界》、《无畏契约：源能行动》，发行新游《...

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2025游戏发布会上展示46款产品最新进展，包括旗舰游戏《王者荣耀》、《三角洲行动》，重点自研新品《王者荣耀世界》、《无畏契约：源能行动》，发行新游《胜利女神：新的希望》、《流放之路：降临》等。22-24年的腾讯游戏发布会均按照游戏主题进行分类介绍，本次首度采取“研发、发行、投资”的产品分类方式，展现腾讯扎实的研、发、投综合实力。我们认为，1、单独展示游戏投资板块，体现腾讯对外投资（特别是海外）已获较多成果，后续IP、端游方向发展思路清晰。伽马数据显示，25Q1中国自主研发游戏海外市场实际销售达48.05亿美元（yoy+17.9%），国产手游保持高增速。但24年中国移动游戏市场规模全球占比持续扩大至37.5%，份额已不低，同时海外市场固化程度高且端游市场占比高达51%，侧重手游的国内厂商出海需在端游方面实现突破。腾讯对外投资有望拓展IP储存、增强更具空间的端游出海能力，助力腾讯海外游戏业务长期保持较快增速。以25M3腾讯注资育碧子公司为例，一方面便于获取《刺客信条》等大热IP改编权，另一方面有望吸取老牌端游厂商的制作经验，提升腾讯自身端游研发能力。2、集中发布长青游戏更新与IP改编手游推进展示腾讯领先的研发能力。会中发布《使命召唤手游》、《无畏契约：源能行动》等多个热门端游IP的手游改编近况，展现腾讯在“端改手”方面成熟的技术处理和工业化生产经验，有望持续享有相关红利。《王者荣耀世界》、《洛克王国：世界》等大型内容向游戏、《异人之下手游》等3D格斗类游戏、《荒野起源》等生存建造类游戏新品的推进也展现腾讯在传统大DAU游戏强项外，向新品类的拓展。3、持续体现的发行能力、社交生态网络、大体量用户运营优势、长期稳定的合作，吸引优质研发商选择腾讯发行产品。Quest Mobile数据显示24M12腾讯游戏用户使用时长占行业66.5%，流量显著领跑。关注《胜利女神：新的希望》5月上线带来增量，《地下城与勇士：卡赞》有望拓展DNF IP价值。产品线节奏把控合理，25H1长青游戏贡献主要增长，25H2则有望依靠新产品减轻高基数压力，助推腾讯业绩。1、根据伽马数据，25M1-2腾讯长青游戏《王者荣耀》、《和平精英》等表现突出，移动游戏流水测算榜前三均为腾讯系产品。4月16日《王者荣耀》官宣与年度大热IP《哪咤》联动，有望在25Q2为游戏业务提供动力。2、24Q3腾讯财报显示《地下城与勇士：起源》等游戏为增值服务带来驱动力，这引发市场对于25Q3高基数影响下腾讯游戏增速下滑的担忧。此次年度发布会提前召开，展示的产品数量众多，同时腾讯还将《无畏契约：源能行动》、《王者荣耀世界》、《地下城与勇士：卡赞》等游戏的预约、测试与更新时间统一协调至4月21日起至5月的时间段内，我们认为，下半年有望有较为密集的新游发布以对冲增速下行压力。盈利预测、估值与评级：25年游戏发布会重点展现腾讯通过对外投资带来IP合作、端游出海方面的独有能力，公司保持强劲的研发、发行能力，丰富的产品线有望实现游戏业务中长期的持续增长。25H1长青游戏发力有望带来较快增长，丰富品类的新游集中发布更新、预约和测试，25H2热门新游有望上线减轻高基数压力，腾讯游戏业务表现预计贡献稳健业绩，我们小幅上调公司2025-26年Non-IFRS归母净利润预测分别至2,547.2/2,835.4亿元（相对上次预测分别+0.7%/+2.8%），新增27年Non-IFRS归母净利润预测3,141.0亿元，现价分别对应公司25-27年Non-IFRS PE 17/15/14倍。考虑微信生态稳健的护城河，公司在游戏、社交网络等领域仍具备龙头地位，根据SOTP估值，给予公司25年网络游戏/数字内容/营销服务分别20/15/20x PE，金融科技/企业服务分别5/5x 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