地产｜下行周期的尽头：2024年年报总评

中信证券研究2025-05-09

文｜陈聪张全国刘河维李俊波我们认为，房地产行业在收缩态势中逐渐来到了下行周期的尽头。在这个尽头，企业负债端的主体债务置换即将完成，资产端由于收储和房价止跌回稳，持续现金回款和价值止跌成为可能。行业的竞争逐渐从2022年、2024年那种有钱即胜出、拿地即得利的简单竞争，转向对开发能力、产品溢价、运营能力等投资性不动产质素的综合竞争。▍企业经营活动全方位收缩，但经营性现金流持续净流入。销售...

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李俊波我们认为，房地产行业在收缩态势中逐渐来到了下行周期的尽头。在这个尽头，企业负债端的主体债务置换即将完成，资产端由于收储和房价止跌回稳，持续现金回款和价值止跌成为可能。行业的竞争逐渐从2022年、2024年那种有钱即胜出、拿地即得利的简单竞争，转向对开发能力、产品溢价、运营能力等投资性不动产质素的综合竞争。▍企业经营活动全方位收缩，但经营性现金流持续净流入。销售...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250509100632a4777c77&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"600503","symbol_name":"华丽家族","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250509100632a4777c77&s=b","article_id":"2534114235","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250509100632a4777c77&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, 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李俊波我们认为，房地产行业在收缩态势中逐渐来到了下行周期的尽头。在这个尽头，企业负债端的主体债务置换即将完成，资产端由于收储和房价止跌回稳，持续现金回款和价值止跌成为可能。行业的竞争逐渐从2022年、2024年那种有钱即胜出、拿地即得利的简单竞争，转向对开发能力、产品溢价、运营能力等投资性不动产质素的综合竞争。▍企业经营活动全方位收缩，但经营性现金流持续净流入。销售端，企业面临市场下行挑战，企业主动加被动持续收缩经营规模，可售货值一路走低。我们认为可销售资源下降是长期的，因为房地产市场不需要如此庞大的新增供给。房地产企业不只是销售收缩，也有支出收缩。投资、建安、人员、税费等多项开支共同缩减，2024年全年14家样本企业的经营性现金仍然保持净流入，且维持了2020 年的水平；2025 年一季度，样本企业依然保持了较好的现金流表现，创下了除2023 年以外，过去 8 年最小的一季度流出（一季度有季节性因素，通常为净现金流出）。▍企业开工计划持续下行、规划中面积因待收储暂缓开发、合同负债下降，低投入可持续。根据各公司公告，2024 年，14 家样本企业合同负债同比下降17%，相较于 2021 年的高点下降了 30%。万科企业、金地集团、新城控股2024 年的合约负债规模相较于 2021 年均下降了约 70%。我们估计，2024年 14 家样本企业的刚性建安义务下降规模和货币资金下降绝对规模相当，按比例看约占当前报表货币资金的 38%，较 2023 年下降5pcts。2024年，样本企业规划中面积/在建面积比值同比提升5.6pcts至53.8%，在建面积的降幅相较于规划中面积的降幅更大。企业新开工不断压低有利于进一步节省建安开支，而规划中面积则可以留待收储解决。根据各公司公告，2024 年样本企业（可统计部分）新开工同面积比下降 32%，2025年更计划进一步下降 32%。▍企业缓慢而坚定优化资产质量。2024年企业进一步缩表。截至 2024 年底，14 家样本企业总资产规模9.2万亿元，较 2023 年下降 7%；其中，存货规模 4.1 万亿元，同比下降 14%。从库存结构来看，截至2024年，7家A股公司现房占比均有不同程度的继续提升，其开发成本总额同比下降25%，而开发产品总额同比提升21%。这一方面说明行业整体去化难度仍在，另一方面也意味着建安投入要求进一步减少，可随时变现的库存比例进一步增加。企业积极去化老货，样本企业2024年结算毛利率下降 2.7pcts 至12.8%，企业也积极补充新货，我们认为，2022 年以来拿地较多的企业在盈利能力上或率先受益于房地产市场的企稳。我们通过各公司公告统计，2025年以来针对2018年之后出让土地的收储价格仅较对应地块历史成交价格折价12%。这意味着，房企不必恶性降价去库存，大部分规划中的土地储备有望逐渐盘活。▍有息负债缓慢下降，主体纯信用负债大幅下降，主体偿债压力大幅降低，信用持续修复。2024 年，样本企业有息负债 2.3 万亿元，同比略微下降 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