招银国际：投资风险因子拟再优化险资长钱加速入市可期

智通财经2025-05-08

智通财经APP获悉，招银国际发布研报称，近日，央行、金融监管总局和证监会在国新办发布会上宣布一揽子金融政策，其中包含有关一系列保险行业的增量政策，这是监管对4月初上调保险资金权益投资上限比例后的有力补充。经测算，若将股票投资风险因子对应释放的最低资本全部用于配置沪深300股票，有望带来逾1,500亿元增量入市资金；调整后24年行业平均综合偿付能力充足率将提升至200.6%(原：199.4%)，增加...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1290695.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，招银国际发布研报称，近日，央行、金融监管总局和证监会在国新办发布会上宣布一揽子金融政策，其中包含有关一系列保险行业的增量政策，这是监管对4月初上调保险资金权益投资上限比例后的有力补充。经测算，若将股票投资风险因子对应释放的最低资本全部用于配置沪深300股票，有望带来逾1,500亿元增量入市资金；调整后24年行业平均综合偿付能力充足率将提升至200.6%(原：199.4%)，增加...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1290695.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1623119135.USD","symbol_name":"Natixis Mirova Global Sustainable Equity R-NPF/A 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market","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81299":0.6,"AAGIY":0.6,"01299":0.9,"02328":0.9},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，招银国际发布研报称，近日，央行、金融监管总局和证监会在国新办发布会上宣布一揽子金融政策，其中包含有关一系列保险行业的增量政策，这是监管对4月初上调保险资金权益投资上限比例后的有力补充。经测算，若将股票投资风险因子对应释放的最低资本全部用于配置沪深300股票，有望带来逾1,500亿元增量入市资金；调整后24年行业平均综合偿付能力充足率将提升至200.6%(原：199.4%)，增加1.3个百分点。对拟新增600亿元的试点规模，预计参与者将从头部险企向中型机构进一步拓展。招银国际主要观点如下：5月7日，央行、金融监管总局和证监会在国新办发布会上宣布一揽子金融政策，其中有关保险行业的增量政策包括1)进一步扩大保险资金长期投资试点范围，近期拟再批复600亿元，为市场注入更多增量资金；2)调整偿付能力监管规则，将股票投资风险因子进一步下调10%(继2023年9月13日《关于优化保险公司偿付能力监管标准的通知》后再度下调)；3)完善长周期考核机制，促进实现长钱长投。招银国际认为，这是监管对4月初上调保险资金权益投资上限比例(报告链接)后的有力补充。经测算，若将股票投资风险因子对应释放的最低资本全部用于配置沪深300股票，有望带来逾1,500亿元增量入市资金；调整后24年行业平均综合偿付能力充足率将提升至200.6%(原：199.4%)，增加1.3个百分点。保险资金长期投资试点规模将提升至2,220亿元保险资金长期投资改革试点自2023年启动以来，目前已有8家头部保险公司获批参与，试点规模合计1,620亿元，具体包括1)2023年10月，国寿和新华合资设立私募证券投资基金(鸿鹄基金一期)，注册资本500亿元；2)2025年1月，太保寿险(200亿元)、泰康人寿(120亿元)、阳光人寿(200亿元)获批开展试点，规模合计520亿元；3)2025年3月，人保寿险(100亿元)、国寿和新华(鸿鹄基金二期，双方各出资100亿元)、中国太平(100亿元)和平安人寿(200亿元)5家险企获批开展试点，规模合计600亿元。第二批保险资金长期投资试点规模1,120元超过年初监管拟定的1,000亿元，反映头部险企参与的积极性，预计主要投向经营资质稳健的大盘蓝筹和高息股标的。对拟新增600亿元的试点规模，预计参与者将从头部险企向中型机构进一步拓展。测算下调股票投资风险因子可释放逾1,500亿元增量资金发布会上提出将调整偿付能力监管规则，下调股票投资风险因子10%，是继2023年9月《关于优化保险公司偿付能力监管标准的通知》后监管再次提及优化权益风险因子。险企的偿付能力充足率决定其权益资产投资上限，具体约束为权益风险因子影响最低资本要求。假设投资于沪深300成分股和科创板上市普通股的风险因子均下调10%，对应新的风险因子分别为0.27(原：0.3)和0.36(原：0.4)。截至2024年底，行业保险资金运用余额为33.26万亿元，其中人身险和财产险公司期末股票投资余额2.43万亿元，占比7.3%。假设险资二级股票投资中沪深300成分股占比50%，科创板普通股占比5%，对应测算可释放最低资本(未考虑风险分散效应)413亿元，若将其全部用于配置沪深300股票，将带来增量资金1,529亿元(招银国际测算)。截至4季度末，行业综合偿付能力充足率为199.4%；考虑50%风险分散效应后，最低资本释放可提升行业综合偿付能力充足率1.3个百分点至200.6%(招银国际测算)。高股息是险企未来权益资产配置的重要方向截至2024年底，上市险企核心权益资产(含股票和权益型基金)占比9%-18%，其中OCI股票占比1%-6%。未来险资增配高息股空间充足，监管进一步下调股票投资风险因子，有助于缓解高权益持仓的资本消耗压力，结合权益投资上限打开，加速长钱入市进程。配置建议：看好上市险企中长期提升OCI股票配置的趋势维持行业“优于大市”评级，建议配置：1)财险防御性龙头，推荐买入中国财险(02328，评级“买入”，目标价:15.8港元)，公司加强主动管理有望达成全年强劲的业绩指引；2)区域险企推荐买入友邦保险(01299，评级“买入”，目标价：89港元)，多元化市场布局驱动新业务价值稳健增长；16亿美元回购计划提前完成支撑股价上行。风险提示权益市场大幅震荡；市场利率中枢显著下移；新单保费不及预期。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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招银国际：投资风险因子拟再优化 险资长钱加速入市可期

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招银国际：投资风险因子拟再优化险资长钱加速入市可期