中信证券：预计美联储年内降息次数小于或等于2次市场短期或仍将围绕特朗普关税政策交易

智通财经2025-05-08

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研究报告称，2025年5月美联储议息会议维持政策利率不变，会议声明强调“不确定性进一步加剧”。鲍威尔发言全程围绕“不确定”和“边走边看”两个词，看似几乎没有增量信息。不过，基于中信证券“transitory inflation+ weaker growth+ high uncertainty”的分析框架，当前美国经济数据和通胀预期对应降息预期有所削减。该机构依旧预计...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2533990327?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-05-08 08:43","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2533990327","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"中信证券：预计美联储年内降息次数小于或等于2次 市场短期或仍将围绕特朗普关税政策交易","media":"智通财经","content":"<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研究报告称，2025年5月美联储议息会议维持政策利率不变，会议声明强调“不确定性进一步加剧”。鲍威尔发言全程围绕“不确定”和“边走边看”两个词，看似几乎没有增量信息。不过，基于中信证券“transitory inflation+ weaker growth+ high uncertainty”的分析框架，当前美国经济数据和通胀预期对应降息预期有所削减。该机构依旧预计...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1290576.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中信证券：预计美联储年内降息次数小于或等于2次 市场短期或仍将围绕特朗普关税政策交易</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中信证券：预计美联储年内降息次数小于或等于2次 市场短期或仍将围绕特朗普关税政策交易\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-05-08 08:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1290576.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研究报告称，2025年5月美联储议息会议维持政策利率不变，会议声明强调“不确定性进一步加剧”。鲍威尔发言全程围绕“不确定”和“边走边看”两个词，看似几乎没有增量信息。不过，基于中信证券“transitory inflation+ weaker growth+ high uncertainty”的分析框架，当前美国经济数据和通胀预期对应降息预期有所削减。该机构依旧预计...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1290576.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK1147","symbol_name":"投资银行业与经纪业","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1290576.html","article_id":"2533990327","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2533990327","pubTimestamp":1746664996,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"市场方面，平淡的会议未掀起太多波澜，中信证券预计市场短期仍将围绕特朗普关税政策交易，外汇市场美元看跌情绪仍重，美股前景尚不清晰，预计短期仍将保持高波动。在美联储没有释放增量信息的情况下，预计市场短期仍将围绕特朗普关税政策交易。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"600030":"中信证券","BK1147":"投资银行业与经纪业","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","LU1794554557.SGD":"Allianz All China Equity AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1997245094.SGD":"安联神州A股基金AT Acc SGD","06030":"中信证券","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","LU1064131003.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU2495084118.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA A-SHARES \"ATH\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1997244956.HKD":"ALLIANZ CHINA A-SHARES \"AT\" (HKD) ACC A","BK0183":"MSCI概念","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK0188":"融资融券","LU0405327494.USD":"ALLSPRING CHINA A FOCUS \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK0012":"证金概念","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK1564":"中资券商股","LU2148510915.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"R\" (USD) ACC","BK0028":"国家队","BK0276":"资本市场",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","LU1655091616.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - China A-Share Opportunities A (acc) SGD","LU2289578879.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA A OPPORTUNITIES \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU1328615791.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ALL CHINA EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","OEX":"标普100","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1064130708.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK1516":"腾讯概念","LU1997245177.USD":"安联神洲A股基金","LU1720050803.USD":"安联全方位中国股票基金","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","LU0405327148.USD":"ALLSPRING CHINA A FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK0196":"行业龙头"},"translate_title":"CITIC Securities: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates less than or equal to 2 times this year. The market may still trade around Trump's tariff policy in the short term","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600030":1,"SSO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SPY":1,"OEF":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"06030":1,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研究报告称，2025年5月美联储议息会议维持政策利率不变，会议声明强调“不确定性进一步加剧”。鲍威尔发言全程围绕“不确定”和“边走边看”两个词，看似几乎没有增量信息。不过，基于中信证券“transitory inflation+ weaker growth+ high uncertainty”的分析框架，当前美国经济数据和通胀预期对应降息预期有所削减。该机构依旧预计美联储年内降息次数小于或等于2次，并且预计6月美联储议息会议将维持政策利率不变。市场方面，平淡的会议未掀起太多波澜，中信证券预计市场短期仍将围绕特朗普关税政策交易，外汇市场美元看跌情绪仍重，美股前景尚不清晰，预计短期仍将保持高波动。中信证券主要观点如下：2025年5月美联储议息会议声明要点：1)利率工具方面，委员会决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在4.25-4.5%不变，符合市场预期，此次利率决议得到FOMC成员一致同意。2)资产负债表方面，委员会维持缩表节奏不变，美国国债每月赎回上限为50亿美元、机构债务和MBS每月赎回上限为350亿美元。3)经济前景方面，尽管净出口波动影响了数据，但近期指标显示经济活动持续稳健扩张。近几个月失业率稳定在低位，劳动力市场状况依然稳健。通胀率仍然略高。委员会力求在长期内实现充分就业和2%的通胀率。经济前景的不确定性进一步加剧。委员会密切关注其双重使命面临的风险，并判断失业率和通胀率上升的风险已经上升。2025年5月美联储议息会议声明强调“不确定性上升”，主要变化包括：1)声明增加“尽管净出口波动影响了数据”;2)声明将“经济前景的不确定性有所增加”改为“经济前景的不确定性进一步加剧”;3)声明增加“判断失业率和通胀率上升的风险已经上升”。鲍威尔发言全程围绕“不确定”和“边走边看”两个词，几乎没有增量信息。经济形势方面，鲍威尔回顾了Q1美国GDP数据和近期非农数据，表示美国内需(PDFP, Private Domestic Final Purchases)仍有韧性，就业市场依旧总体处于平衡状态。展望方面，鲍威尔表示经济前景高度不确定(鲍威尔表示自己的直觉为“uncertainty is extremely elevated”)，依旧无法判断通胀上行和经济增长压力二者风险谁将先至。关于如何在二者之间权衡的问题，鲍威尔没有给出通胀或失业率达到何种水平利率政策会有所响应，仅粗略表示当有一者明显偏离目标时美联储利率政策会对其有所倾斜。利率政策方面，“wait and see”便是鲍威尔仅有的回应，他还表示当前不具备类似于2019年“预防式”降息的通胀环境。尽管鲍威尔发言看似没有太多增量信息，但基于中信证券“transitory inflation+ weaker growth+ high uncertainty”的分析框架，当前美国经济数据和通胀预期对应降息预期有所削减。依旧预计美联储年内降息次数小于或等于2次，并且预计6月美联储议息会议将维持利率不变。在本次议息会议并无亮点的情况下，中信证券此前在《美联储2025年3月议息会议点评——美联储“Wait for greater clarity”》(2025-3-20)中提出的框架依旧适用：“transitory inflation+ weaker growth+ high uncertainty”的组合对应3月点阵图显示的年内2次降息，三者中任何一者朝着美联储预期的反向变化理论上都会导致降息次数削减。第一，“transitory inflation”是关税后变化最明显的一项，鲍威尔对“transitory inflation”的软化对应降息预期的削减。3月议息会议上“通胀暂时论”重出江湖，但从鲍威尔在4月16日的发言中便可见“通胀暂时论”出现了变化，他彼时表示“通胀效应也可能更加持续”。本次记者会上，他对“通胀暂时论”的信心更弱，表示通胀情况将依赖于关税规模和关税对价格的传导时间等因素。(The effects on inflation could be short-lived—reflecting a one-time shift in the price level. It is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent. Avoiding that outcome will depend on the size of the tariff effects, on how long it takes for them to pass through fully into prices, and, ultimately, on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.)第二，针对“weaker growth”，鲍威尔表示更加关注hard data，而市场一直担忧soft data。如前所述，当前出现类似于2019年“预防式”降息的概率很小，soft data的走弱难以对美联储利率政策产生明显影响，市场对“weaker growth”的关注需要从soft data更多转至hard data，即使hard data发布时间滞后。中信证券在《2025年五一假期美国经济数据和市场动态点评——对关税谈判的乐观预期推升亚洲货币》(20250505)中提到：五一假期期间，美国经济数据(25Q1 GDP、4月非农、4月制造业PMI)整体稳健，市场似乎意识到3月SEP提到的“weaker growth”预期足够差，而当前的经济数据好于该预期，这也对应降息预期的削减。第三，“high uncertainty”依旧，但随着特朗普开始和其他国家进行贸易谈判，短期来看不确定性边际上有一定程度下降，也对应降息预期的削减。市场方面，平淡的会议未掀起太多波澜，预计市场短期仍将围绕特朗普关税政策交易，外汇市场美元看跌情绪仍重，美股前景尚不清晰，预计短期仍将保持高波动。鲍威尔此番发言与4月16日发言几乎无异，市场没有再次表现出4月16日的激烈反应。鲍威尔发言后，纳指涨0.27%，标普500涨0.43%，道指涨0.70%，10Y美债利率下行2.52bps，2Y美债利率下行0.41bps，美元指数上行接近100点位。在美联储没有释放增量信息的情况下，预计市场短期仍将围绕特朗普关税政策交易。外汇市场方面，尽管当前美国经济数据仍有韧性，但在关税政策冲击下，市场看跌美元情绪依然主导。美股近期虽有反弹，但前景尚不清晰，预计短期仍将保持高波动。风险因素：美国通胀超预期反弹;美国劳动力市场超预期走弱;特朗普对美联储独立性实行超预期干预;特朗普关税政策超预期。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2533990327","isCrawlerRequest":true}

中信证券：预计美联储年内降息次数小于或等于2次 市场短期或仍将围绕特朗普关税政策交易

精彩评论

中信证券：预计美联储年内降息次数小于或等于2次市场短期或仍将围绕特朗普关税政策交易