中信证券：房地产供给持续收缩，收储加力扩围

格隆汇2025-05-08

本文来自格隆汇专栏：中信证券研究作者：杨帆遥远危思安2025年前111天，我们统计各地拟利用专项债收储规模已经达到2090亿元，1-4月披露专项债收储逐月快速上升，专项债收储已经不局限于个别区域，而在普遍推开。统计数据显示，2018年和之后出让的土地当前收储价格相对于土地出让成交价仅折让12%，收储有力夯实了房企的净资产。我们认为，收储是供给收缩政策的核心内容，并和金融支持政策、需求支持政策...

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危思安2025年前111天，我们统计各地拟利用专项债收储规模已经达到2090亿元，1-4月披露专项债收储逐月快速上升，专项债收储已经不局限于个别区域，而在普遍推开。统计数据显示，2018年和之后出让的土地当前收储价格相对于土地出让成交价仅折让12%，收储有力夯实了房企的净资产。我们认为，收储是供给收缩政策的核心内容，并和金融支持政策、需求支持政策一起，构成了中国房地产市场止跌回稳的最关键政策组合。▍土地收储政策便利不断，收储进程不断提速。从2024年10月财政部支持地方使用专项债回收闲置土地，到2025年3月自然资源部和财政部发布相关工作细则，再到各地大规模持续推出拟用专项债收储土地的名单——土地收储政策推进力度较大，成果丰硕。我们根据中指数据库自下而上汇总统计，2025年2月、3月和4月，各地分别公告收储总金额为522亿元、780亿元和超过1000亿元（按可统计范围日均披露推算），2025年开年以来拟收储规模逐月快速抬升。▍收储集中在低线城市和房价下跌的地方即便剔除2018年之前案例，我们根据中指数据库数据计算，拿地时间在2018年之后的土地当前的收储对价也只比土地历史成交价折价12.2%，对绝大多数房地产公司被收储有利可图。一线城市地产项目确实不太依赖于收储，低线城市收储的需求更为迫切。根据RealData数据，截至2024年底国内50城房价指数相较2021年最高点下跌超过三成，且理论上地价跌幅往往超过房价，一些低线城市部分土地跌价超过六成以上。但收储的存在，使得地产企业不至于大幅折价促销或者计提巨额跌价准备，而可以期待土地以较高价格被收储。▍政策在加力关键阶段，预计显著减少供给，推动市场止跌回稳。我们根据中指研究院以及各政府官网披露数据统计，到2025年4月底，一些专项债落地较快的省份总计落地专项债551亿元。当前专项债用于收储已经普遍推开，不再局限于前期试点省份。我们认为，只要满足当地土地平整成本明显低于土地出让合同金额，建安成本显著低于房价这两个条件，则收储就可以在这个地方持续扩容。收储具备显著的供给收缩效应，因为收储会间接影响企业的开工行为和经营决策。我们认为，收储和金融支持、需求支持一起，是推动中国房地产市场止跌回稳最重要的三项政策。▍不止是城投平台受益。2021年之后，城投平台逐渐拿地“吃撑”，大量土地无法开工销售。情理上，地方收储中城投平台率先受益是情理之中。不过，我们认为所有市场主体其实都受益于土地收储。“换地型”的收储较之“注资型”收储更匹配市场化企业的诉求，也更不依赖专项债资金。我们当然重视专项债对于收储的作用，但这不意味着只能用专项债资金收储。而且，收储的不断加力扩围和其对供给的强收缩效应，都有利于城投平台之外的市场化房企。地产企业的经营性现金流净流入数据已经转好，说明收储有从容开展的空间。▍风险因素：专项债发行规模不及预期风险；部分企业，收储远水不解近渴的风险；部分房企资产空心化风险。▍投资策略：我们认为，专项债收储已经迎来关键加速期，地方在不断扩围收储平台，有效落地资金。收储是一项积极影响颇大的供给收缩政策，也是我国所独有的稳定房地产市场政策。我们认为，配合其他政策，房价在2025年可以止跌回稳。我们看好供给收缩的积极意义。注：本文节选自中信证券研究部已于2025年5月7日发布的《房地产与物业服务行业深度专题研究—供给持续收缩，收储加力扩围》报告，分析师：陈聪S1010510120047；张全国S1010517050001；刘河维S1010523030004；李俊波S1010524080020","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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