国泰君安国际：鲍威尔维护“独立性” 市场维持体面

智通财经2025-05-08

智通财经APP获悉，国泰君安国际发布研报称，美联储保持基准利率不变，并表达对经济与通胀路径的不确定性，导致6月降息概率由会前35%降至20%。尽管鲍威尔强调美联储政策独立性，但此前走势似乎说明金融市场更加不喜欢的是“缺乏远期策略”的不确定。叠加近期亚洲央行汇率干预及全球贸易数据分化，国泰君安国际相信美联储和鲍威尔得到的也是相对混乱的图景。国泰君安国际主要观点如下：一如市场预期，美联储保持基准利率...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2533917572?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-05-08 10:52","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2533917572","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"国泰君安国际：鲍威尔维护“独立性” 市场维持体面","media":"智通财经","content":"<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，国泰君安国际发布研报称，美联储保持基准利率不变，并表达对经济与通胀路径的不确定性，导致6月降息概率由会前35%降至20%。尽管鲍威尔强调美联储政策独立性，但此前走势似乎说明金融市场更加不喜欢的是“缺乏远期策略”的不确定。叠加近期亚洲央行汇率干预及全球贸易数据分化，国泰君安国际相信美联储和鲍威尔得到的也是相对混乱的图景。国泰君安国际主要观点如下：一如市场预期，美联储保持基准利率...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1290638.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>国泰君安国际：鲍威尔维护“独立性” 市场维持体面</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n国泰君安国际：鲍威尔维护“独立性” 市场维持体面\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-05-08 10:52 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1290638.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，国泰君安国际发布研报称，美联储保持基准利率不变，并表达对经济与通胀路径的不确定性，导致6月降息概率由会前35%降至20%。尽管鲍威尔强调美联储政策独立性，但此前走势似乎说明金融市场更加不喜欢的是“缺乏远期策略”的不确定。叠加近期亚洲央行汇率干预及全球贸易数据分化，国泰君安国际相信美联储和鲍威尔得到的也是相对混乱的图景。国泰君安国际主要观点如下：一如市场预期，美联储保持基准利率...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1290638.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"FT_SY_ES","symbol_name":"SP500指数","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1290638.html","article_id":"2533917572","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2533917572","pubTimestamp":1746672764,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"尽管鲍威尔强调美联储政策独立性，但此前走势似乎说明金融市场更加不喜欢的是“缺乏远期策略”的不确定。叠加近期亚洲央行汇率干预及全球贸易数据分化，国泰君安国际相信美联储和鲍威尔得到的也是相对混乱的图景。美联储保持自身的独立性，可能也是眼下鲍威尔能够采取的最佳策略，从市场反应来看也是如此。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","01788":"国泰君安国际","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK1147":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"translate_title":"Guotai Junan International: Powell maintains \"independence\" and the market maintains decency","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"IVV":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPY":1,"SDS":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"OEX":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"01788":1,"ESmain":0.6,"SH":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，国泰君安国际发布研报称，美联储保持基准利率不变，并表达对经济与通胀路径的不确定性，导致6月降息概率由会前35%降至20%。尽管鲍威尔强调美联储政策独立性，但此前走势似乎说明金融市场更加不喜欢的是“缺乏远期策略”的不确定。叠加近期亚洲央行汇率干预及全球贸易数据分化，国泰君安国际相信美联储和鲍威尔得到的也是相对混乱的图景。国泰君安国际主要观点如下：一如市场预期，美联储保持基准利率不变，同时表达了对于未来经济和通胀走势的不确定，因此6月是否降息也开始成为疑问。从市场交易的结果来看，6月降息的概率在FOMC前大约为35%，在议息后降至20%。市场关心的另一个问题，是鲍威尔和特朗普的关系，鲍威尔强调其未要求与特朗普见面，也重申特朗普的态度不会影响美联储的决策。美联储保持自身的独立性，可能也是眼下鲍威尔能够采取的最佳策略，从市场反应来看也是如此。此前，特朗普威胁要炒掉鲍威尔，美元资产出现崩盘走势，似乎表明金融市场更加不喜欢的是“缺乏远期策略”的不确定。从机构编制的贸易不确定指数来看，近期该指数其实有所下行，中美贸易谈判的即将举行，也给投资者带来了些许慰藉，但长端美债收益率大致保持平稳，这说明市场在目前阶段更为担忧的是通胀。近期投资者关心的另一个问题是美元的信用担忧，与此同时也开始担忧美元可能的大幅走弱。对于美元的信心存在担忧是事实，但美元距离垮塌仍有一些距离。近期在不少亚洲货币升值后，若干亚洲央行也开始进场干预。日本央行也暗示将来可能会更晚和更慢升息，这在一定程度上也表明多数经济体仍然希望保持政策的灵活度，而非轻易跟随金融市场尤其是以对冲基金为主导的杠杆交易。关于关税的问题尚不清晰，有亚洲金丝雀之称的韩国4月出口数据好于市场预期，同比增长3.7%(市场预期-2.0%)，这表明关税的影响尚未显现。在大洋彼岸的另一端，美国港口的进出口都出现大幅下滑，似乎意味着全球贸易面临的逆风仍会较强。加总这些信息，相信美联储和鲍威尔得到的也是相对混乱的图景。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2533917572","isCrawlerRequest":true}