超威半导体：2H25后数据中心或加速增长估值有吸引力

交银国际2025-05-08

1Q25 收入超预期，出口管制或影响2Q/3Q25 业绩: 1Q25 收入74.4 亿美元，超过指引上限和我们的预期（71 亿美元），Non-GAAP EPS 0.96 美元，符合我们和市场的预期。客户端业务表现亮眼，收入环比基本持平，未出现之前市场预期的季节性回调，管理层提到主要是因为ASP 提高弥补了出货量环比下降。管理层同时提到客户端业务未发现明显的需求前置现象。与英伟达相似，出口管制使得...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250508194625a476b189&s=b><strong>交银国际</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>1Q25 收入超预期，出口管制或影响2Q/3Q25 业绩: 1Q25 收入74.4 亿美元，超过指引上限和我们的预期（71 亿美元），Non-GAAP EPS 0.96 美元，符合我们和市场的预期。客户端业务表现亮眼，收入环比基本持平，未出现之前市场预期的季节性回调，管理层提到主要是因为ASP 提高弥补了出货量环比下降。管理层同时提到客户端业务未发现明显的需求前置现象。与英伟达相似，出口管制使得...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250508194625a476b189&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1880398554.USD","symbol_name":"AMUNDI FUNDS GLOBAL EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) 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收入超预期，出口管制或影响2Q/3Q25 业绩: 1Q25 收入74.4 亿美元，超过指引上限和我们的预期（71 亿美元），Non-GAAP EPS 0.96 美元，符合我们和市场的预期。客户端业务表现亮眼，收入环比基本持平，未出现之前市场预期的季节性回调，管理层提到主要是因为ASP 提高弥补了出货量环比下降。管理层同时提到客户端业务未发现明显的需求前置现象。与英伟达相似，出口管制使得数据中心业务计提8 亿美元库存减值，一次性影响2Q25 毛利率（管理层指引Non-GAAP 毛利率为43%，若不计及减值则为54%）。减值一共影响收入15 亿美元，其中7 亿美元收入本应产生在2Q25，剩余主要应产生在3Q25。即便如此，公司指引2Q25 收入74 亿美元，符合我们在出口管制之前的预期。我们认为客户端和传统数据中心CPU 业务或继续扩张市场份额。MI350 和MI400 上市或驱动数据中心2H25 之后高速增长：我们认为，部分受到出口管制影响，数据中心业务1H25 总体收入略低于2H24。但新产品MI350 在2025 年中上市之后，或使数据中心业务收入在2H25 快速上升。管理层指引2H25 数据中心业务或实现高双位数增长。我们认为，现有的MI325 或可被视为过渡产品，而采用CDNA 4 新架构的MI350 对于客户的吸引力更大。同时，我们更加看好公司数据中心业务在MI400 产品2026年上市之后的表现，主要因为合并ZT 系统之后AMD 或可以提供机架级的解决方案。我们预测数据中心业务在2025/2026 年分别增长25%/34%。估值具有吸引力：综合考虑到出口管制和客户端业务表现强劲，我们略微下调2025/2026 年收入预测到313/376 亿美元（前值314/384 亿美元），预测Non-GAAP EPS 为3.88/5.31 美元（前值4.55/6.07 美元）。我们观察到，公司股价表现从1H24 之后一直落后同行。我们认为这或许与之前投资者对于公司期望过高，而在2H24 之后又更青睐体量更大的对手有关。我们认为AMD 无论是在产品路线图还是在执行上都表现出色。而出口管制利空落地或有利公司股价之后表现。我们上调公司目标价到142 美元（前值141 美元），对应31 倍2025/26 年平均市盈率（前值为31 倍2025 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超威半导体：2H25后数据中心或加速增长 估值有吸引力

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超威半导体：2H25后数据中心或加速增长估值有吸引力