科技巨头资本支出强劲，台积电被摩根士丹利列为”首选股”

华尔街见闻2025-05-02

摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）周四将台积电列为首选股票，称大型科技公司在人工智能领域的强劲资本支出，印证了该公司的光明前景。摩根士丹利虽然下调了台积电的目标价，但对台积电股票评级为增持，台积电美股周四一度上涨4.6%，收涨3.6%。大摩分析师Charlie Chan指出，Meta和微软两家公司的资本支出显示出对AI产品的需求依旧旺盛。鉴于Meta和微软发布的强劲AI资本支出指引，我们将...

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Stanley","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/302e6f14821cf29e2e61d45612dccd02","symbols_score_info":{"TSM":1,"03145":0.6,"XMAG":1},"content_text":"摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）周四将台积电列为首选股票，称大型科技公司在人工智能领域的强劲资本支出，印证了该公司的光明前景。摩根士丹利虽然下调了台积电的目标价，但对台积电股票评级为增持，台积电美股周四一度上涨4.6%，收涨3.6%。大摩分析师Charlie Chan指出，Meta和微软两家公司的资本支出显示出对AI产品的需求依旧旺盛。鉴于Meta和微软发布的强劲AI资本支出指引，我们将台积电重新纳入首选名单。“两家公司强劲的AI资本支出应能打消市场对台积电CoWoS（晶圆上芯片再植入基板）订单削减的担忧。”媒体报道，此前摩根士丹利之所以迟迟未能将台积电列为首选股票，主要受制于三大悬念：AI需求可持续性、台积电与英特尔合资的可能性，以及美国半导体关税。在AI需求方面，摩根士丹利表示，投资者近期对台积电先进CoWoS封装技术订单削减的担忧似乎被夸大了。分析师写道：“我们最新的供应链调查显示，台积电的CoWoS-L需求保持不变。”Meta将其2025年全年资本支出计划上调约70亿美元，微软则暗示把资本支出中的一部分……转向周期更短的服务器设备，以填充那些数据中心。”关于是否与英特尔合资这一悬念，摩根士丹利报告称，情况看起来也不那么令人担心，预计台积电在未来CPU生产中所扮演的角色有限。“台积电的2纳米制程将用于生产CPU与GPU两种芯片模块，但会与Intel 18A节点共享产能。台积电管理层已排除了合资的可能性。”至于半导体关税，摩根士丹利表示，在5月7日的决定出台之前仍存不确定性，但未提及新的风险变化。摩根士丹利强调：“一旦这些悬念解除，我们预期股价将迅速反弹。”摩根士丹利将台积电的目标价从2,454.00新台币下调至2,330.00新台币。尽管目标价被下调，大摩仍维持对该股的“增持”(Overweight)评级。“与同业相比，台积电是更具吸引力的增持(OW)标的，按2025年预估市盈率仅15.5倍。”“增持”(Overweight)评级意味着摩根士丹利分析师预计，未来12至18个月台积电股票的总回报将超过其所覆盖股票的平均水平。将台积电列为“首选”表明，分析师认为其相较同行具有显著的潜在上行空间。此外，还有多家金融机构对台积电股价做出预期。Bernstein维持对台积电的“跑赢大市”(Outperform)评级，强调其在封装技术方面的进展是未来增长的战略资产。Stifel则调整了对台积电的预期，预计资本支出与扩产计划将放缓，因而下调目标价，此举反映出对终端需求和台积电激进扩张可能放缓的担忧。摩根大通同样下调了目标价，但维持“增持”评级，理由是预计2025年营收指引将作出调整。公司第二季度营收预计增长5-8%，但关税影响及全球经济放缓导致全年营收预期更趋谨慎。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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