光大证券微软(MSFT.US)FY25Q3业绩点评：Azure收入指引强劲资本开支环比下降 AI云负载供不应求

智通财经2025-05-02

智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研究报告称，美国东部时间4月30日盘后，微软(MSFT.US)发布FY25Q3业绩公告。FY25Q3微软营收、净利润超预期，FY25Q4营收指引高于预期。微软智能云收入指引大幅超预期，AI驱动Azure收入重回加速增长且指引强劲。此外，FY25Q3微软资本开支环比下降，云业务毛利率承压。光大证券主要观点如下：事件：美国东部时间4月30日盘后，微软发布FY25Q3业绩...

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is in short supply","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"601788":1,"06178":1,"MSFT":1},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研究报告称，美国东部时间4月30日盘后，微软(MSFT.US)发布FY25Q3业绩公告。FY25Q3微软营收、净利润超预期，FY25Q4营收指引高于预期。微软智能云收入指引大幅超预期，AI驱动Azure收入重回加速增长且指引强劲。此外，FY25Q3微软资本开支环比下降，云业务毛利率承压。光大证券主要观点如下：事件：美国东部时间4月30日盘后，微软发布FY25Q3业绩公告。截至北京时间5月1日8:00，微软盘后股价上涨6.69%。FY25Q3营收、净利润超预期，FY25Q4营收指引高于预期。FY25Q3微软实现营业收入700.7亿美元(vs Refinitiv一致预期+2.41%，下文简称一致预期)，同比增长13.3%;公司指引FY25Q4营业收入731-742亿美元，中位数737亿美元，高于一致预期5.5%。FY25Q3微软实现营业利润320亿美元，同比增长16%;净利润258.2亿美元(vs一致预期+7.76%)，同比增长17.7%。智能云收入指引大幅超预期，AI驱动Azure收入重回加速增长且指引强劲。FY25Q3微软智能云部门收入267.5亿美元，同比增长20.8%，FY25Q4智能云收入指引287.5-290.5亿美元，中位数超一致预期10.4%。FY25Q3 Azure收入同比增长33%(前值31%)，Azure AI贡献16pcts的增速，公司指引FY25Q4 Azure收入同比增长34%-35%，维持加速增长的趋势。生产力和企业流程收入增速放缓，更多个人计算部门稳健增长。FY25Q3微软生产力和企业流程部门收入299.4亿美元，同比增长10.4%(前值13.9%)。FY25Q3微软更多个人计算部门收入133.7亿美元，同比增长6.1%，游戏内容和服务收入强劲增长抵消了硬件收入的下降，毛利率同比提升2pcts。资本开支环比下降，云业务毛利率承压。FY25Q3微软资本开支214亿美元，同比增长52.9%，环比下降5.3%，反映数据中心租赁交付时间的波动，其中购买PP&E现金支出为167亿美元;公司维持FY25H2的资本支出指引不变。由于持续投资AI基础设施，FY25Q3微软云业务毛利率69%，同比下滑。AI下游需求强劲，Copilot用户数快速增长。根据公司业绩电话会，FY25Q3 Azure AI负载供不应求，Agent开发平台 Foundry处理的tokens同比增长5倍，Copilot用户数同比增长了3倍，GitHub Copilot用户数同比增长了4倍。Security Copilot Agent已拥有140万名客户，同比增长21%盈利预测、估值与评级：Azure收入指引维持加速增长趋势，持续投资数据中心建设支持Azure AI强劲需求，考虑到宏观经济不确定性可能影响企业IT支出，下调25-27财年营收预测至2774/3135/3565亿美元(相比上次预测-0.8%/-1.8%/-3.1%)，考虑到公司资本开支环比下降，持续优化运营效率，调整25-27净利润预测至1025/1115/1235亿美元(相比上次预测+2.0%/+0.3%/-6.0%)，现价对应PE 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光大证券微软(MSFT.US)FY25Q3业绩点评：Azure收入指引强劲 资本开支环比下降 AI云负载供不应求

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光大证券微软(MSFT.US)FY25Q3业绩点评：Azure收入指引强劲资本开支环比下降 AI云负载供不应求