【华创金融徐康团队】中国人寿2025Q1：业绩增速领先同业，产品转型成效明显

小康金融2025-04-30

华创证券金融业研究主管首席分析师徐康xukang@hcyjs.com联系人：陈海椰 chenhaiye@hcyjs.com摘要事项：2025Q1公司实现归母净利润288亿元，同比+39.5%；NBV同比+4.8%；净/总投资收益率分别为2.6%/2.75%，分别同比-0.22pct/-0.48pct。评论：以价驱动，NBV正增。2025Q1，公司实现NBV可比口径下同比+4.8%。从量价...

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chenhaiye@hcyjs.com摘要事项：2025Q1公司实现归母净利润288亿元，同比+39.5%；NBV同比+4.8%；净/总投资收益率分别为2.6%/2.75%，分别同比-0.22pct/-0.48pct。评论：以价驱动，NBV正增。2025Q1，公司实现NBV可比口径下同比+4.8%。从量价角度看，驱动主要来自新业务价值率改善，25Q1公司实现新单1074亿元，同比-4.5%。续期保费持续发挥压舱石作用，25Q1同比+9.7%；总保费达到3544亿元，同比+5%，跑赢行业。产品转型成效明显，预计“报行合一”短期内影响个险人力规模。2025Q1，公司浮动收益型产品在首年期交保费中占比52%，同比大幅提升。我们认为，产品结构从传统险向浮动收益型产品转化，将有助于公司降低“刚兑”成本压力，减缓利率中枢下行带来的“利差损”隐患。个险转型亦持续深化，截至2025Q1末，公司个险销售人力为59.6万人，较上年末-1.9万人，或受个险“报行合一”影响。激励分配机制调整，预计部分低绩效人力收入下降，导致规模有所减少。Q1投资下行，预计主要受FVTPL债券浮亏影响，Q2或有望改善。截至2025Q1末，公司投资资产达到6.82万亿，较上年末+3.1%。2025Q1，虽然Q1利率波动上行，但公司净投资收益率同比-0.22pct至2.6%，或受存量高收益固收产品到期影响，再投资收益仍面临下行压力；总投资收益率同比-0.48pct至2.75%，预计主要受FVTPL即交易盘债券浮亏影响，权益投资收益或部分抵消负向影响。但Q2至今利率再度下行至1.65%附近，债券浮亏影响或有所收敛。投资建议：2025Q1公司归母净利润增速远超人身险同业，主要来自保险服务费用比例大幅下降。据业绩会介绍，保险服务费用变动来自医疗健康险赔付下降和VFA模型下即期利率变动带来的阶段性影响。前者或于全年有持续性，后者预计Q2利率再度下行将有所收敛。我们维持公司2025-2027年EPS预测值为3.09/3.19/3.25元，给予2025 年 PEV 目标值为 0.9x，对应 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【华创金融 徐康团队】中国人寿2025Q1：业绩增速领先同业，产品转型成效明显

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【华创金融徐康团队】中国人寿2025Q1：业绩增速领先同业，产品转型成效明显