招商银行2025年一季报点评：重定价压力集中释放，业绩逐季改善可期

倪军金融与流动...2025-05-01

欢迎关注、标星，以便更快获得我们研究推送广发证券银行分析师倪军、王宇核心观点招商银行发布2025年一季报，我们点评如下：25Q1营收、PPOP、归母净利润同比增速分别为-3.1%、-4.0%、-2.1%，增速环比24A分别变动-2.60pct、-4.63pct、-3.30pct，同比24Q1分别变动+1.57pct、+2.08pct、-0.12pct。从25Q1业绩驱动来看，规模扩张、拨备计提减轻...

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quarter","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600036":1,"03968":0.9},"content_text":"欢迎关注、标星，以便更快获得我们研究推送广发证券银行分析师倪军、王宇核心观点招商银行发布2025年一季报，我们点评如下：25Q1营收、PPOP、归母净利润同比增速分别为-3.1%、-4.0%、-2.1%，增速环比24A分别变动-2.60pct、-4.63pct、-3.30pct，同比24Q1分别变动+1.57pct、+2.08pct、-0.12pct。从25Q1业绩驱动来看，规模扩张、拨备计提减轻形成正贡献，息差收窄、其他收支、净手续费收入承压形成拖累。亮点：（1）信贷投放有增有压，活期存款优势巩固。资产端，25Q1末生息资产、贷款同比分别增长8.1%、4.5%，增速环比有所放缓。Q1单季贷款增量2,372亿元，同比少增698亿元。结构上，对公端持续提升优质资产组织能力，25Q1末对公贷款同比增长9.2%，新增1,860亿元，增量占比78.4%，同比少增61亿元；零售端同比增长4.5%，新增140亿元，同比少增484亿元，公司坚持稳健审慎的原则，25Q1压降信用卡及其他贷款832亿元；经营贷、消费贷单季新增49亿元、240亿元，同比环比均明显少增；按揭贷款延续24Q4趋势，余额增长浮出水面，新增2.7亿元；票据规模扩大。负债端，25Q1末计息负债、存款同比增长8.7%、10.4%，增速环比小幅放缓。25Q1单季存款增量为2,229亿元，同比少增618亿元。结构上，个人存款增长好于对公，活期存款占比51.8%；25Q1活期存款日均余额占比50.46%，较24A上升0.12pct。（2）中收降幅收窄。Q1中收降幅环比24A收窄12pct。关注：（1）Q1重定价，息差承压。25Q1净息差1.91%，环比24A下降7bp，同比24Q1下降11bp。公司按揭贷款占比高，受LPR下调及存量房贷利率调整影响大。25Q1资产收益率3.21%，较24A/24Q1分别下降29bp、44bp；负债成本率1.39%，较24A/24Q1改善25bp、 36bp。预计随着Q1重定价压力集中释放，净息差降幅有望逐季企稳。（2）前瞻指标上行。25Q1末不良贷款率0.94%，环比回落1bp；关注率、逾期率1.36%、1.38%，环比上升7bp、5bp；测算25Q1不良净生成率0.95%，同比下降5bp；25Q1末拨备覆盖率410.03%，环比下降1.95pct。（3）其他非息贡献由正转负。Q1其他非息同比下滑22%。盈利预测与投资建议：预计公司25/26年归母净利润增速分别为1.98%/3.14%，EPS分别为5.78/5.97元/股，当前股价对应25/26年PE分别为7.05X/6.83X，对应25/26年PB分别为0.86X/0.76X，综合考虑公司历史PB（LF）估值中枢和基本面情况，给予公司最新财报每股净资产1.55倍PB，对应合理价值65.50元/股，按照当前AH溢价比例，H股合理价值68.25港币/股，均维持“买入”评级。风险提示：（1）宏观经济超预期下行，资产质量大幅恶化。（2）消费复苏不及预期，存款定期化严重。（3）市场利率上行，交易账簿浮亏。倪军：SAC 执证号：S0260518020004林虎：SAC 执证号：S0260525040004报告原文：《招商银行2025年一季报点评：重定价压力集中释放，业绩逐季改善可期》对外发布日期：2025年5月1日报告正文请参阅广发研报系统（可向对口销售咨询登入方式）：https://research.gf.com.cn/","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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