花旗分析师：自动驾驶新规短期压制AD/ADAS渗透长期趋势不改

智通财经2025-04-30

智通财经APP获悉，花旗分析师发布参观上海车展后的新收获。核心结论如下：瑞声科技(02018)拓展汽车产品线，首次展示电机系统，玻璃车窗(WLG)应用推进顺利;小米 SU7 订单积压超 20 万辆，YU7 仍计划 6-7 月发布，近期撞车事件未影响上市节奏;中科创达(300496.SZ)凭借全栈 AquaDriveOS 解决方案发力智能座舱 + AI，驱动增长;四维图新(002405.SZ)向智能...

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后首次以独立品牌参展。瑞声科技(AAC)本次车展是瑞声科技首次以自有品牌展示汽车产品，包括声学(PSS+First Light Auto)、触觉反馈、光学(镜头组)、MEMS 惯性传感器及电机系统等。公司首次展出应用于转向、电子制动、踏板、雨刮和轨道等场景的电机产品，可利用内部磁材优势，仅设计无刷电机。调研显示已获国内新能源汽车客户指定项目。此外，公司展示了 ADAS 用 WLG(玻璃车窗)，并已获得北美、日本客户项目。光学镜头方面，1-3MP 产品已获全球及国内主机厂量产项目。花旗认为，瑞声科技将通过多元化产品推动汽车业务增长，但规模效应仍需时间积累。从智能手机业务向汽车领域拓展是未来估值提升的关键。小米(Xiaomi)相较去年车展，小米本次曝光度较低，主因在于未展示 YU7 车型，且近期国内媒体报道其 SU7 车型撞车事件(4 月 1 日南华早报)。但 YU7 仍计划 6-7 月发布，时间点或在撞车事故调查报告出炉后。SU7 现有订单积压超 20 万辆，标准版交付周期约 6-7 个月，PRO 版 5-6 个月，Max 版 4-5 个月，Ultra 版短于 Max 版。下一催化因素可能是 2025 年一季度财报及新智能手机 / 智能玻璃产品发布。中科创达(ThunderSoft)作为领先的 IT 解决方案服务商，中科创达在车展上重点展示了最新版 AquaDriveOS 系统。智能座舱 + AI 解决方案是另一亮点，包括基于高通 8775 的计算方案，以及支持 DeepGlint、Meta、微软、深度求索等多家大语言模型(LLM)的 AI 盒子方案。国内新能源车企倾向使用自研 LLM，传统车企可能委托选择 LLM，合资及外资品牌则由一级供应商推荐。高通 8775 是面向高性价比方案的座舱 + ADAS 域控制器。调研显示，公司 2025 年一季度智能驾驶需求回升，现有汽车解决方案中智能座舱占量产项目的 90%，ADAS 约 10%。花旗认为，中科创达将受益于 2024 年四季度及 2025 年一季度智能汽车及智能驾驶需求回暖，但竞争也在加剧 —— 更多消费电子 ODM 厂商正以系统解决方案商身份进入汽车 OEM 或一级供应商市场。四维图新(NavInfo)作为领先的高精度地图解决方案商，四维图新正定位为具备硬件系统与软件开发能力的新型一级供应商。其业务基础是数据合规、数据处理及 AI 训练工具等 AI 基础设施，在此之上可提供基础驾驶、泊车、智能座舱 + 泊车、智能座舱 + 驾驶等解决方案。2024-25 年，基础驾驶产品获 300 万辆指定项目，智能座舱 + 泊车项目获 60 万辆指定项目。公司可提供基于高通 Snapdragon Ride SA8620P(36 TOPS)的城市领航辅助(City NOA)方案，支持 7 颗摄像头、2 颗毫米波雷达及 12 颗超声波雷达;高端产品采用 SA8650P(100 TOPS)，支持 8 颗摄像头、3 颗毫米波雷达、12 颗超声波雷达及 1 颗激光雷达。高精度地图可提供更安全的支持与赋能：城市 NOA 因需基于学习的算法自动驾驶，需更高算力(如双 J6M)，而高速 NOA 基于规则算法，算力需求较低(单 J6M)。车展期间，四维图新向观众开放高速 NOA 体验。花旗认为，在竞争激烈的环境下，四维图新的转型短期内将伴随高额研发投入。最新的 MIT(注：原文可能为 MIIT，工信部)自动驾驶 / ADAS 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花旗分析师：自动驾驶新规短期压制AD/ADAS渗透 长期趋势不改

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花旗分析师：自动驾驶新规短期压制AD/ADAS渗透长期趋势不改