李宁Q1折扣低单改善，跑步及电商增长靓丽

开源证券2025-04-29

一、核心观点与投资评级李宁公司(02331。HK)在2025年第一季度的流水表现符合预期，跑步及电商增长亮眼，折扣改善显著。基于其稳健的运营表现和未来战略规划，分析师维持“买入”评级，并预计2025-2027年的归母净利润分别为24.6亿元、28.1亿元和31.6亿元。二、Q1业绩亮点2025年第一季度，李宁大货全平台流水实现低单位数增长，其中线上渠道表现尤为突出，录得双位数增长，而线下渠道则因...

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。此外，库存规模及结构保持健康，库销比为5个月，新品占比超过80%。三、门店调整与开店计划截至2025年第一季度末，李宁品牌门店总数为6088家，较2024年底净减少29家，其中直营门店减少6家，批发渠道减少23家。尽管直营门店数量有所缩减，但全年开店指引未变，预计大货直营将关闭10-20家门店，批发渠道将新开30-40家门店。童装业务方面，门店总数为1453家，全年预计净增100家。四、品牌建设与资源投入2025年，李宁再度成为中国奥委会及中国体育代表团的官方合作伙伴，并计划针对米兰冬奥会进行奥运相关营销活动，以强化品牌影响力。同时，公司将在篮球、跑步等专业运动领域加大资源投放，推出新产品和新科技，进一步提升市场渗透率。例如，跑步品类通过赞助马拉松赛事和推出飞电5Ultra等新品，获得了较高的市场认可。五、风险提示与估值分析尽管李宁整体表现稳健，但仍面临市场竞争加剧、产品升级和渠道优化不及预期的风险。根据财务预测，2025-2027年营业收入预计分别为287.42亿元、311.12亿元和334.56亿元，对应PE为14.6倍、12.8倍和11.4倍。分析师认为，公司在专业运动领域的持续布局和新兴市场的开拓将为其长期发展奠定坚实基础。六、总结与展望总体来看，李宁在2025年第一季度的表现展现了其在专业运动领域的竞争力和市场潜力。随着品牌建设的持续推进以及产品和渠道的优化，公司有望在未来几年继续保持稳健增长。然而，投资者需关注市场竞争和运营风险，合理评估投资价值。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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