国泰海通｜海外科技：台积电、英特尔推动摩尔定律演进，搜索巨头加速AI转型

国泰君安证券研究2025-04-28

报告导读：台积电、英特尔推动摩尔定律持续演进；百度Create大会证明百度依然是AI时代兼具模型能力、应用场景、流量入口优势的玩家；谷歌重申750亿美元资本支出计划，AI搜索进展可观。大盘行情上，（2025.4.20-2025.4.26）恒生指数上涨2.74%，恒生科技指数上涨1.96%，道琼斯工业指数上涨2.48%，纳斯达克指数上涨6.73%。台积电A14制程2028年量产，英特尔18A制程已获...

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2nm级工艺，同等功耗下性能可提升10-15％，同等性能下功耗可降低25-30％，逻辑晶体管密度提升最多约23％，芯片密度提升最多约20％。A14将于2028年量产（不支持背面供电），支持背面供电的A14计划于2029年推出。据工商时报，英特尔的18A制程工艺获得行业青睐，包括英伟达、博通在内的多家巨头已开始测试18A芯片样品，合作伙伴对18A的初步反馈颇为正面。英特尔自身将成为18A制程的主要用户，计划实现70%的内部制程采用率，Panther Lake中重要的计算Tile会采用Intel 18A制程，图形Tile及SoC Tile则会交给台积电代工；2026年的Nova Lake会将部分计算Tile交由台积电2nm制造，但仍有部分型号采用英特尔内部制程。英特尔CEO陈立武表示目前专注于交付Intel 18A芯片，同时也在与客户密切合作Intel 14A芯片。百度Create大会证明百度依然是AI时代兼具模型能力、应用场景、流量入口优势的玩家。模型方面，发布文心大模型4.5 Turbo和文心大模型X1 Turbo，价格大幅降低，文心4.5Turbo相比文4.5降价80%，文心X1 Turbo相比X1性能提升的同时价格再降50%，低成本模型有望推动应用爆发。AI应用方面，1）发布首个移动端的通用超级智能体App“心响”，已覆盖知识解析、旅游规划、学习办公等场景中的200个任务类型。2）百度文库、百度网盘联合推出沧舟OS（内容领域操作系统），百度网盘上线了多模态AI笔记功能。目前百度文库、百度网盘的AI月活用户达到9700万、8000万。3）发布全球首个电商交易MCP、搜索MCP等MCP server，供开发者调用，帮助开发者全面拥抱MCP，加速Agent生态构建。硬件方面，基于全自研的昆仑芯，点亮3万卡GPU集群。谷歌重申750亿美元资本支出计划，AI搜索进展可观。资本支出方面，Alphabet第一季度资本支出172亿美元，略高于预期的171亿美元，重申2025年全年资本支出将达到750亿美元，一定程度缓解市场对CSP资本支出放缓的担忧。AI应用方面，AI Overview功能月活跃用户达15亿，用户反馈积极，用户AI搜索句长能达到传统搜索的两倍左右，且AI Overview货币化速度将与非AI搜索一致。风险提示：地缘政治风险及政策监管风险；AI技术发展未及预期。文章来源本文摘自：2025年4月28日发布的台积电、英特尔推动摩尔定律演进，搜索巨头加速AI转型秦和平，资格证书编号：S0880523110003更多国泰海通研究和服务亦可联系对口销售获取重要提醒本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。法律声明本公众订阅号(微信号: GTHT RESEARCH )为国泰海通证券股份有限公司(以下简称“国泰海通证券”) 研究所依法设立、独立运营的唯一官方订阅号。其他机构或个人在微信平台上以国泰海通研究所名义注册的，或含有“国泰海通研究\"，或含有与国泰海通证券研究所品牌名称相关信息的其他订阅号均不是国泰海通证券研究所官方订阅号。本订阅号不是国泰海通证券研究报告发布平台，本订阅号所载内容均来自于国泰海通证券研究所已正式发布的研究报告，如需了解详细的证券研究信息，请具体参见国泰海通证券研究所发布的完整报告。在任何情况下，本订阅号的内容不构成对任何人的投资建议，国泰海通证券也不对任何人因使用本订阅号所载任何内容所引致的任何损失负任何责任。本订阅号所载内容版权仅为国泰海通证券所有，国泰海通证券对本订阅号保留一切法律权利。订阅人对本订阅号发布的所有内容(包括文字、影像等)进行复制、转载的，需注明出处为“国泰海通研究”， 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