星展：政策利好下地产市场情绪回升首选华润置地(01109)及绿城中国(03900)

智通财经2025-04-28

智通财经APP获悉，星展发布中国房地产行业研报称，2025年第一季度全国住宅销售表现较为平稳，新盘推出量显著下降，但市场情绪韧性较强，基本抵消了这一影响。一级市场与二级市场均价跌幅持续收窄：一线城市在两个市场均保持复苏态势。在政策预期升温下，4月实物市场或环比、同比小幅下滑：关税相关动态影响市场情绪，新盘推出量进一步下降，建议把握政策利好下的市场情绪回升机遇，首选基本面强劲的政策受益标的。星展主要...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1286132.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，星展发布中国房地产行业研报称，2025年第一季度全国住宅销售表现较为平稳，新盘推出量显著下降，但市场情绪韧性较强，基本抵消了这一影响。一级市场与二级市场均价跌幅持续收窄：一线城市在两个市场均保持复苏态势。在政策预期升温下，4月实物市场或环比、同比小幅下滑：关税相关动态影响市场情绪，新盘推出量进一步下降，建议把握政策利好下的市场情绪回升机遇，首选基本面强劲的政策受益标的。星展主要...</p>\n\n<a 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policies","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"02423":0.9,"03900":1,"01109":1},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，星展发布中国房地产行业研报称，2025年第一季度全国住宅销售表现较为平稳，新盘推出量显著下降，但市场情绪韧性较强，基本抵消了这一影响。一级市场与二级市场均价跌幅持续收窄：一线城市在两个市场均保持复苏态势。在政策预期升温下，4月实物市场或环比、同比小幅下滑：关税相关动态影响市场情绪，新盘推出量进一步下降，建议把握政策利好下的市场情绪回升机遇，首选基本面强劲的政策受益标的。星展主要观点如下：购房者情绪韧性凸显2025年第一季度全国住宅销售面积同比下降1.2%，但均价上涨0.26%，部分抵消了销量下滑的影响。销量下降主要由于新盘推出量显著减少(克而瑞数据显示，30个重点城市新供应同比下降27%)，但购房者情绪稳定(CREIS数据显示，一季度新开盘去化率为56.8%，同比提升16.3个百分点)。综合来看，2025年第一季度住宅销售基本持平，同比微降0.46%。房价预期出现更多企稳信号，3月国家统计局70个重点城市房价指数显示，一、二级市场环比跌幅进一步收窄至0.08%和0.23%(2月分别为-0.14%和-0.34%)。值得注意的是，3月一线城市一级市场价格环比反弹0.12%，连续第五个月上涨，二级市场价格也恢复上涨，环比上涨0.25%。预计4月环比小幅下降中美关税战超预期加剧，可能促使中国监管机构加大以扩大内需为核心的政策力度。消费将成为政策重点，房地产因其对消费者情绪和经济的重要影响，重要性也可能提升。尽管如此，近期政策可能不会过于激进，鉴于经济数据韧性和股市表现稳定，政策可能聚焦于供给侧调整(如闲置土地回购、库存房源收购)，下一个重要政策窗口可能是4月底的政治局会议。尽管存在政策预期，但最新的关税相关动态可能对购房者情绪产生一定影响，同时克而瑞数据显示，4月28个城市新盘推出量预计环比小幅下降4%。这可能导致4月住宅销售环比和同比小幅下降。国有企业持续表现优异2025年1-3月，该行跟踪的24家开发商加权平均预售额同比下降16%(2024年同期为569亿港元)。民营企业(PE开发商)销售额同比降幅更大，达32%。展望未来，该行认为国有企业预售表现优异的趋势有望持续，得益于其更充足的可售资源以及近期积极的土地收购，这些土地有望在2025年下半年推出。布局预售前景更佳的优质标的，把握市场情绪回升潜力鉴于关税战升级后，预计政府将针对消费和房地产领域出台更多扩大内需的政策刺激，该行建议投资者在近期市场波动期间寻找优质标的，以把握未来潜在的政策利好。该行看好在供需关系更好的城市拥有优质土地储备、预售前景更强的开发商，如华润置地(01109)和绿城中国(03900)。该行也看好贝壳控股(02423)，因其能够从市场情绪改善中受益，进而推动交易流量增加。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"policyRegulatory","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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星展：政策利好下地产市场情绪回升 首选华润置地(01109)及绿城中国(03900)

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星展：政策利好下地产市场情绪回升首选华润置地(01109)及绿城中国(03900)