白酒行业周报：批价底线扎实价值吸引已足

华创证券有限责...2025-04-21

发货节奏前置，批价短期波动，符合3-5 月价格压力测试期判断。茅台批价近期跌幅较大，价格下探至2100 元左右，同比上周/上月下跌20 元/120 元左右，主要一是供给节奏提升，公司传统渠道发货进度较快，Q1 开门红已完成，当前4 月份回款已完成，发货进度较往年有所提前，同期发货量增多；二是Q2白酒消费淡季，礼赠、商务需求环比走弱，批价下跌符合周期性规律，属于合理性波动；三是受电商扰动，拼多多部分...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025042116042994dc9ffb&s=b><strong>华创证券有限责...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>发货节奏前置，批价短期波动，符合3-5 月价格压力测试期判断。茅台批价近期跌幅较大，价格下探至2100 元左右，同比上周/上月下跌20 元/120 元左右，主要一是供给节奏提升，公司传统渠道发货进度较快，Q1 开门红已完成，当前4 月份回款已完成，发货进度较往年有所提前，同期发货量增多；二是Q2白酒消费淡季，礼赠、商务需求环比走弱，批价下跌符合周期性规律，属于合理性波动；三是受电商扰动，拼多多部分...</p>\n\n<a 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attract","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600197":0.9,"600199":0.9,"600519":0.9,"600559":0.9,"600696":0.9,"600702":0.9,"600779":0.9,"600809":0.9,"603198":0.9,"603369":0.9,"603589":0.9,"603919":0.9},"content_text":"发货节奏前置，批价短期波动，符合3-5 月价格压力测试期判断。茅台批价近期跌幅较大，价格下探至2100 元左右，同比上周/上月下跌20 元/120 元左右，主要一是供给节奏提升，公司传统渠道发货进度较快，Q1 开门红已完成，当前4 月份回款已完成，发货进度较往年有所提前，同期发货量增多；二是Q2白酒消费淡季，礼赠、商务需求环比走弱，批价下跌符合周期性规律，属于合理性波动；三是受电商扰动，拼多多部分产品价格跌破2000 元，短期引发价格下跌讨论，但对传统经销渠道价格体系冲击有限。我们认为，尽管短期承压，但2000 元底线不变，仍为市场有效支撑位。主动出击稳定价盘，批价2000 元以上支撑性仍足。针对茅台批价回落至2100元附近，公司积极开会研讨应对举措，渠道反馈当前已派驻市场调查组深入一线巡查市场，发布多项监管举措保障价格稳定性。具体来看，一是主动精确调整供给，缓解渠道压力，部分省份企业团购渠道出货有所调整，控制指导零售价飞天供给保障价格支撑性；二是公司加大对窜货等行为管控力度，各地市场管理部门已充分发挥监督管理职能，如有进一步乱价、抛货等扰乱市场行为，或进一步加大处罚，引导市场积极良性运行；三是持续稳定电商价格体系，公司将进一步强化对电商渠道的监管，重点核查2000 元以下交易，预防电商低价甩货对于市场价格的扰动。在此基础之上，各地经销商联谊会会同经销商群体，积极协同稳价，阶段性控制供给出货，体现责任担当，整体上下步调一致，积极应对淡季挑战。预计情绪平稳后，批价或可筑底回升，2000 元以上底线仍然清晰。二季度追求量价平衡，白酒股息率吸引力已具。从发货节奏看，一季度终端动销相对较好，考虑去年高基数影响，增速或有所回落，二季度经营重点在于渠道纾压，主动控制发货节奏，采取暂停团购出货、放慢回款发货进度等多种策略缓解渠道库存压力，环比改善经销商现金流，追求更稳定的价盘水位，预计渠道端抒压特征或更加明显。以当前视解来看，主要白酒企业股息率已在4%左右，股息价值凸显，对于长线资金吸引力较足，股价亦具较强支撑力。展望来看，预计五一端午白酒动销有望平稳过渡。品牌端头部集中效应延续，头部品牌茅五汾回款、动销等指标保持平稳，茅五价格短期偏弱，长尾中小品牌库存、周转、回款等问题尚待解决。具体公司的渠道反馈看：高端酒：茅台飞天短期价格偏弱但预计可保持平稳，1935 动销微增，精品价格倒挂增量减少，公斤装及生肖酒上半年投放较大，直营店暂停建档企业团购、个人客户拿酒政策；五粮液：普五回款发货同比滞后，淡季持续小幅发货，批价略下滑至925 元左右，1618 费投与去年持平，部分渠道反馈保持双位数增长；老窖：淡季持续去库存，渠道反馈公司计划提高打款价、缩减费用挺价；次高端：汾酒：青20 批价稳定、库存健康，老白汾、青26 持续在华北铺货，玻汾价格稳定动销较好；洋河：回款发货同比有所下滑，库存尚待去化，省外市场反馈海/天动销尚可，费投效果尚未明显见效；酒鬼酒：省内库存2 个月左右相对健康，周转问题尚待解决；珍酒：终端流速低双位数下滑，库存3 个月左右，但在二线酱酒中相对稳健。投资建议：底部吸筹阶段，预计下行风险有限，且行且珍惜。短期看一季报绩优标的，长期看经营稳定性大幅提升后的持续分红能力，以价值红利思维布局龙头酒企。具体来看：首选行业龙头茅台（经营底牌充足，业绩稳若泰山，加速冲刺十四五）及千元价格带龙头五粮液（经营边际改善，批价向好且高分红政策）；推荐次高端龙头汾酒（经营惯性确保较快增长，全国化品牌张力足）；持续推荐古井（团队能力强，报表仍确定），以及老窖、今世缘。风险提示：节后消费需求回落，库存消化情况不及预期，竞争加剧等。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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白酒行业周报：批价底线扎实 价值吸引已足

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白酒行业周报：批价底线扎实价值吸引已足