美对东盟光伏产品“双反”终裁落地隆基(601012.SH)等中企影响几何？

智通财经2025-04-24

智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报表示，美国近日宣布对来自马来西亚、泰国、柬埔寨和越南四个东盟国家的太阳能电池和组件作出反倾销和反补贴肯定性终裁，最终关税大幅提高，部分税率甚至高达41%至660%，这可能对中国企业的美国市场战略造成显著冲击。高盛指出，美国商务部于4月21日宣布了最终裁定，新税率较初步提案提高了11至526个百分点。该行指出，在“东盟进口电池+美国组装组件”的模式下，与初步裁定税率...

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SH) and other Chinese companies?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"601012":1},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报表示，美国近日宣布对来自马来西亚、泰国、柬埔寨和越南四个东盟国家的太阳能电池和组件作出反倾销和反补贴肯定性终裁，最终关税大幅提高，部分税率甚至高达41%至660%，这可能对中国企业的美国市场战略造成显著冲击。高盛指出，美国商务部于4月21日宣布了最终裁定，新税率较初步提案提高了11至526个百分点。该行指出，在“东盟进口电池+美国组装组件”的模式下，与初步裁定税率情景相比，中国企业面临生产成本预计平均上升50%，假设50%的关税转嫁给消费者，美国市场价格面临上涨15%的压力。受此影响，企业平均单位利润预计将下降40%，毛利率减少17个百分点至22%。该行分析师Brian Lee补充道，由于经济效益不佳和普遍的关税不确定性，美国公用事业规模太阳能项目的开发进度可能受到干扰。不过，高盛指出，拥有马来西亚产能的中国企业，如隆基绿能(601012.SH)，在此次关税调整中相对更具优势。隆基在马来西亚已建成3GW的电池和组件产能，而针对马来西亚的关税仅上调11个百分点至41%，影响较为有限。相比之下，柬埔寨和泰国的产能将受到更严重的冲击，单位利润分别下降至0.02美元/W和0.07美元/W。根据高盛对三家在马来西亚中国企业的渠道调研，一家企业因产品类型过时自2024年底起暂停了马来西亚产能，另外两家企业表示，鉴于其领先的生产成本以及美国太阳能电池短缺可能带来的关税转嫁空间，在终裁关税下仍有望盈利，将继续运营马来西亚产能供应美国市场。高盛预计，隆基3GW的马来西亚电池产能将为2025-2030年其美国1.8-2.1GW的出货量预测提供支撑。总体来说，尽管行业面临挑战，高盛对隆基绿能仍维持“买入”评级，目标价为19.8元人民币。该行认为，市场低估了隆基在上游价格下降和技术创新(如背接触电池BC技术)方面的潜力，预计其2025年下半年EBITDA将迎来拐点，同时其中期的净资产收益率(ROE)将优于同行。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"policyRegulatory","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2529627304","isCrawlerRequest":true}

美对东盟光伏产品“双反”终裁落地 隆基(601012.SH)等中企影响几何？

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美对东盟光伏产品“双反”终裁落地隆基(601012.SH)等中企影响几何？