没错！金价将达4000美元！

智通财经2025-04-24

智通财经APP获悉，近日，华尔街多家金融巨头纷纷上调对黄金价格的预期，对黄金市场前景表现出强烈的乐观态度。摩根大通预测，到2025年第四季度，黄金价格将飙升至每盎司3675美元，而到2026年第二季度，有望突破4000美元大关。瑞银同样对黄金市场持乐观立场。高盛也发布报告上调金价预期，将2025年底金价预测上调至每盎司3700美元，预计波动范围在3650-3950美元/吨。在港股市场，高盛对...

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The price of gold will reach $4,000!","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"PRU":1,"01818":1},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，近日，华尔街多家金融巨头纷纷上调对黄金价格的预期，对黄金市场前景表现出强烈的乐观态度。摩根大通预测，到2025年第四季度，黄金价格将飙升至每盎司3675美元，而到2026年第二季度，有望突破4000美元大关。瑞银同样对黄金市场持乐观立场。高盛也发布报告上调金价预期，将2025年底金价预测上调至每盎司3700美元，预计波动范围在3650-3950美元/吨。在港股市场，高盛对招金矿业(01818)维持“买入”评级，目标价从17.0港元大幅上调至27.0港元。摩根大通大宗商品团队近日发布报告，预测到2025年第四季度黄金价格将达3675美元/盎司，到2026年第二季度将达4000美元/盎司摩根大通分析师雷戈里・C・希勒指出，之所以下“金价将达4000美元”的判断，主要原因和实现路径是：一，对经济衰退的担忧和滞胀风险正有力推动金价上涨。二，数据分析显示，要使金价季度环比持平，盈亏平衡需求水平为季度需求350吨;需求每增减100吨，金价波动2%。三，即使人们认为金价会因需求刺激和库存拉动而上涨，未来数年央行仍可能持续大幅配置黄金，且央行的黄金持有量也会自然增长。四，对于投资者而言，面对2025年和2026年市场所面临的滞胀、经济衰退、货币贬值和美国政策风险等独特组合，黄金仍是最理想的对冲工具之一。无独有偶，瑞银分析师一直是黄金“大多头”，而过去的一年里，黄金价格上涨了50%瑞银的亚历克斯・林(AlexLim)前日分享了一份关于黄金的精彩报告《黄金：首选大宗商品，牛市初期?》。亚历克斯认为，现在获利套现可能为时过早。他说，黄金价格突破后，通常会在2-3年内实现价格翻倍至四倍，这意味着金价至少能达到4000美元。黄金价格通常会在实际利率转为负值和/或经济衰退期间见顶。其他指标，如黄金与标准普尔500指数的比值、房地产价格和美国国债未偿余额等，表明黄金价格可能尚未见顶。黄金仍是首选大宗商品，在澳大利亚，北方之星资源(NST)、珀尔修斯矿业(PRU)、创世纪矿业(GMD)等公司在黄金领域表现突出。那么，该如何从黄金投资中获利?相对于美国基金的资产管理规模(AUM)，黄金投资占比约为1%;在全球基金中，这一比例约为0.7%。如果假设交易所交易基金(ETF)和期货头寸仅占黄金总投资敞口(包括场外交易投资者持仓、实物持仓等)的30-40%，那么黄金投资占比仍处于2-4%的合理低位。现在仍可买入黄金股!瑞银分析师利瓦伊、拉赫及其团队对相关公司给出7个买入评级、1个中性评级和1个卖出评级。详细标的如下：在港股市场，也有自己正宗的黄金标的。高盛也紧盯这个板块，并于前日发布了招金矿业(01818)的最新研究报告高盛报告中指出，结合全球大宗商品团队的最新预测，将2025-2026年的基准金价预测上调12%。全球团队对金价仍持乐观态度，将年末金价预测上调至3700美元/吨，预计波动范围在3650-3950美元/吨，这考虑了强于预期的央行需求，以及经济衰退风险增加对预测框架内交易所交易基金资金流入的推动作用。据此，该团队预测2025年金价为3295美元/吨，2026年上半年为3892美元/吨。招金矿业公布2025年第一季度业绩基本符合高盛预期。有鉴于更高的金价预测，将2025-2027年盈利预测上调14%-43%。随着海域金矿全面投产，预计招金矿业的自产黄金产量将从2024年的16吨增加到2028年的30吨，复合年增长率为17%。基于产量的强劲增长和金价上涨，该行预计经常性净利润将从2024年的16.4亿元人民币增加到2028年的47.7亿元人民币(扩张项目全面投产后)，复合年增长率为31%。维持买入评级，目标价从17.0港元上调至27.0港元。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2529611881","isCrawlerRequest":true}