食品饮料行业2025年一季报前瞻：白酒出清筑底，大众渐次改善

华创证券研究2025-04-16

摘要:白酒仍处出清筑底期，下半年有望边际好转。结合24Q4+25Q1看，白酒仍处出清筑底期，行业风险已从表外渠道传导至多数上市公司表内，Q1多数酒企适度调减目标、放缓回款发货节奏、节后宣布停货，减轻渠道压力，行业整体回款发货进度略有放缓，但头部酒企基本完成开门红规划。展望后续，行业理性降速、二季度进一步出清后，有望迎来底部信号。分价格带看：高端：品牌礼赠边际企稳，茅台发货节奏略快于去年，预计Q1...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2527239594?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-04-16 08:00","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2527239594","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"食品饮料行业2025年一季报前瞻：白酒出清筑底，大众渐次改善","media":"华创证券研究","content":"<div>\n<p>摘要:白酒仍处出清筑底期，下半年有望边际好转。结合24Q4+25Q1看，白酒仍处出清筑底期，行业风险已从表外渠道传导至多数上市公司表内，Q1多数酒企适度调减目标、放缓回款发货节奏、节后宣布停货，减轻渠道压力，行业整体回款发货进度略有放缓，但头部酒企基本完成开门红规划。展望后续，行业理性降速、二季度进一步出清后，有望迎来底部信号。分价格带看：高端：品牌礼赠边际企稳，茅台发货节奏略快于去年，预计Q1...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250416101408a45a7563&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>食品饮料行业2025年一季报前瞻：白酒出清筑底，大众渐次改善</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n食品饮料行业2025年一季报前瞻：白酒出清筑底，大众渐次改善\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-04-16 08:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250416101408a45a7563&s=b><strong>华创证券研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要:白酒仍处出清筑底期，下半年有望边际好转。结合24Q4+25Q1看，白酒仍处出清筑底期，行业风险已从表外渠道传导至多数上市公司表内，Q1多数酒企适度调减目标、放缓回款发货节奏、节后宣布停货，减轻渠道压力，行业整体回款发货进度略有放缓，但头部酒企基本完成开门红规划。展望后续，行业理性降速、二季度进一步出清后，有望迎来底部信号。分价格带看：高端：品牌礼赠边际企稳，茅台发货节奏略快于去年，预计Q1...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250416101408a45a7563&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SG9999006597.SGD","symbol_name":"United China-India Dynamic Growth SGD","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250416101408a45a7563&s=b","article_id":"2527239594","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250416101408a45a7563&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2527239594","pubTimestamp":1744761658,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"结合24Q4+25Q1看，白酒仍处出清筑底期，行业风险已从表外渠道传导至多数上市公司表内，Q1多数酒企适度调减目标、放缓回款发货节奏、节后宣布停货，减轻渠道压力，行业整体回款发货进度略有放缓，但头部酒企基本完成开门红规划。展望后续，行业理性降速、二季度进一步出清后，有望迎来底部信号。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"159843":"食品饮料","600197":"伊力特","600199":"金种子酒","600519":"贵州茅台","600559":"老白干酒","600696":"*ST岩石","600702":"舍得酒业","600779":"水井坊","600809":"山西汾酒","603198":"迎驾贡酒","603369":"今世缘","603589":"口子窖","603919":"金徽酒","SG9999006597.SGD":"United China-India Dynamic Growth SGD","LU0417516902.SGD":"Allianz China Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU1719994722.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2097828557.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0348825331.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","LU2097828631.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC","LU0918141887.USD":"安联亚洲实际收益股票基金","BK0215":"饮品","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2177674079.SGD":"Fidelity Asia Pacific Opportunities A-ACC-SGD (hedged)","LU1934453819.USD":"AB CHINA A SHARES EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0516422440.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2097828805.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A-AZ\" (USD) ACC","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU1969619763.USD":"EASTSPRING INV CHINA A SHARES GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1064131003.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0251143458.SGD":"Fidelity Emerging Markets A-SGD","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU1146622755.USD":"安本中国A股股票基金A Acc","LU0181495838.USD":"施罗德新兴亚洲A Acc","SGXZ81163826.USD":"UNITED CHINA A-SHARES INNOVATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1993786604.SGD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV ALL CHINA \"P\" (SGD) ACC","SGXZ49509284.SGD":"United China A Shares Innovation A Acc SGD","LU0405327494.USD":"ALLSPRING CHINA A FOCUS \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0140636845.USD":"施罗德大中华区股票A Acc","LU0501845795.SGD":"瑞银大中华区股票基金P Acc SGD","LU1303224171.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0577902611.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA GROWTH & INCOME EQUITIE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1820825898.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - China A Share Equity A Acc SGD-H","SG9999000459.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard Pacific Equity SGD","LU1051768304.USD":"贝莱德新兴市场股票收益A6","SG9999014674.SGD":"Nikko AM All China Equity A SGD","SG9999002562.SGD":"LionGlobal Asia Pacific SGD","IE00BYV24P56.USD":"GUINNESS EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU1251922891.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0359202008.SGD":"Blackrock China Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1831875114.USD":"SCHRODER ISF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0456846285.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Greater China A (acc) SGD","LU0370786039.SGD":"Fidelity Greater China A-SGD","000807.SH":"食品饮料","LU0072913022.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  GREATER CHINA \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0650527681.SGD":"Fidelity China Consumer A-SGD","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","LU0326950275.SGD":"Schroder ISF China Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU1515016050.SGD":"Blackrock Emerging Markets Equity Income A6 SGD-H","LU0594300179.USD":"FIDELITY CHINA CONSUMER \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"Preview of the first quarter report of the food and beverage industry in 2025: Liquor has bottomed out, and the public is gradually improving","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"159843":1,"600197":0.9,"600199":0.9,"600519":0.9,"600559":0.9,"600696":0.9,"600702":0.9,"600779":0.9,"600809":0.9,"603198":0.9,"603369":0.9,"603589":0.9,"603919":0.9,"000807.SH":1},"content_text":"摘要:白酒仍处出清筑底期，下半年有望边际好转。结合24Q4+25Q1看，白酒仍处出清筑底期，行业风险已从表外渠道传导至多数上市公司表内，Q1多数酒企适度调减目标、放缓回款发货节奏、节后宣布停货，减轻渠道压力，行业整体回款发货进度略有放缓，但头部酒企基本完成开门红规划。展望后续，行业理性降速、二季度进一步出清后，有望迎来底部信号。分价格带看：高端：品牌礼赠边际企稳，茅台发货节奏略快于去年，预计Q1收入/利润同增9%/10%，五粮液全面推进改革，终端份额维持，预计Q1收入/利润同增4%/3%，老窖回款端具备支持，预计Q1收入/利润同增2%/1%。基地型次高端：受益于区域壁垒强、宴席等大众消费场景，营收确定性强。汾酒青花保持稳健，老白汾加速铺货，玻汾控量，费投加大下预计Q1收入/利润增速约8%/5%；洋河持续调整，预计Q1收入/利润同降10%/10%；古井省内进度符合预期，预计Q1收入/利润同增8%/10%；今世缘V系和省外表现超预期，预计Q1收入/利润同增8%/7%；口子窖Q1释放压力，强化新品布局，预计Q1营收/净利润分别同降5%/10%；金种子改革阵痛延续，预计Q1收入同比下滑50%左右，利润延续亏损。扩张型次高端：Q1预计持续分化调整，其中水井坊回款动销稳健，业绩确定性相对更强，预计Q1收入/利润同增2%/1%，舍得持续调整，预计Q1收入/利润同比下滑20%/30%。大众品：啤酒边际改善，零食魔芋单品景气突出，乳业轻装上阵待Q2反转。整体来看，25Q1外部需求依旧平淡，单季度报表更取决于库存清理情况、以及春节备货节奏。具体分子板块来看，饮料板块延续相对景气，啤酒前期去库到位、Q1多数龙头实现开门红，零食板块中魔芋品类景气突出，龙头盐津、卫龙等提振明显，乳业前期库存消化到位、液奶环比略有改善，而调味品因于备货前置，Q1增速环比有所放缓，此外餐饮链相关的速冻、连锁等延续承压。利润方面，主要原料与包材价格同比继续回落，多数企业原材料成本红利延续，仅棕榈油相关的速冻或受一定影响。啤酒：Q1轻装上阵，多数龙头实现开门红。预计Q1青啤收入/利润同比+4%/+8%，燕京同比+6%/+62%，重啤同比+2%/持平，百威内生收入/利润同比-6%/-15%。乳肉制品：乳业轻装上阵待回暖，盈利能力率先修复。预计Q1伊利收入/利润分别同比-1%/-37%，天润同比-2%/+450%，新乳业同比+0%/+18%，双汇同比-1%/-1%。休闲及功能食饮：软饮料相对景气延续，零食魔芋品类表现亮眼。预计Q1东鹏收入/利润同比+32%/+40%。零食盐津同比+18%/+12%，洽洽同比-10%/-25%，甘源同比-3%/-5%。烘焙安琪同比+5%/+10%，桃李同比-10%/-20%。保健品仙乐同比+6%/+6%，汤臣同比-10%/-16%。调味品：整体错期放缓，企业调整分化，龙头势能延续。预计Q1海天收入/利润分别同比+7%/+8%，中炬同比-12%/-18%，千禾同比+5%/+4%，榨菜同比+4%/+8%，恒顺同比+8%/+15%，天味同比-5%/-8%，宝立同比+6%/+16%。速冻：需求景气偏弱， Q1基本面承压。预计Q1安井收入/利润分别同比-1%/-7%，千味同比+0%/-10%，立高同比+10%/-5%。连锁：外部需求承压，企业延续调整。Q1绝味收入/利润同比-11%/-27%，预计紫燕同比+3%/+6%，巴比同比+9%/+2%（考虑东鹏持股）。投资建议：白酒底部配置，大众把握拐点。白酒：基本面预期筑底期，估值先行修复。板块修复的催化剂是市场风格高切低，低预期低估值低持仓下得以修复，前提是基本面预期企稳筑底：重点酒企交流传递信心，其中两大关键观察指标，一是春节后茅台批价守住2000元底线预期抬升；二是业绩节奏看，24Q4除茅台外酒企五泸汾古等重点多数单季下滑、报表卸压，25Q1报表有望迎正增长，而全年业绩预期底部或在二季度确认。优先推荐茅台、五粮液、汾酒，持续推荐动销反馈较好的古井、今世缘，以及需求一旦好转的弹性品种老窖。大众品：把握库存及经营周期拐点，重点推荐啤酒、乳业，加大关注零食，布局酵母经营向上周期。啤酒底部坚定推荐龙头青啤和华润；结合中观库存周期和微观经营周期，乳业打包配置双龙头伊利和蒙牛，推荐飞鹤经营反转周期，加大关注零食盐津和好想你；布局未来1-2年改善趋势明确的酵母龙头安琪。此外持续战略性推荐东鹏、农夫、海天等，关注仙乐。风险提示：节后消费需求回落，库存消化情况不及预期，竞争加剧等。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2527239594","isCrawlerRequest":true}