下调美国GDP预期、上调通胀预期，“乐观派”高盛也看“滞胀”了

华尔街见闻2025-03-11

随着特朗普的关税政策逐步兑现，华尔街对美国经济前景和“滞胀”风险的担忧正在加剧。近日，曾被视为“乐观派”的高盛加入了下调美国经济增长预期的阵营，将2025年美国GDP增长预期从2.4%下调至1.7%，为该行两年多来首次将GDP预测值下调至普遍预期水平下方。高盛经济团队负责人Jan Hatzius在报告中明确指出： “下调预期的原因是我们对贸易政策的假设已变得相当不利。” 同时，高盛还上调...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2518733730?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/34c23715-ff14-4dec-81e8-4e039d4c307e.jpeg","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-03-11 08:27","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2518733730","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"下调美国GDP预期、上调通胀预期，“乐观派”高盛也看“滞胀”了","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>随着特朗普的关税政策逐步兑现，华尔街对美国经济前景和“滞胀”风险的担忧正在加剧。\n近日，曾被视为“乐观派”的高盛加入了下调美国经济增长预期的阵营，将2025年美国GDP增长预期从2.4%下调至1.7%，为该行两年多来首次将GDP预测值下调至普遍预期水平下方。\n\n高盛经济团队负责人Jan Hatzius在报告中明确指出：\n\n“下调预期的原因是我们对贸易政策的假设已变得相当不利。”\n\n同时，高盛还上调...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3742763\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>下调美国GDP预期、上调通胀预期，“乐观派”高盛也看“滞胀”了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n下调美国GDP预期、上调通胀预期，“乐观派”高盛也看“滞胀”了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-03-11 08:27 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3742763><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>随着特朗普的关税政策逐步兑现，华尔街对美国经济前景和“滞胀”风险的担忧正在加剧。\n近日，曾被视为“乐观派”的高盛加入了下调美国经济增长预期的阵营，将2025年美国GDP增长预期从2.4%下调至1.7%，为该行两年多来首次将GDP预测值下调至普遍预期水平下方。\n\n高盛经济团队负责人Jan Hatzius在报告中明确指出：\n\n“下调预期的原因是我们对贸易政策的假设已变得相当不利。”\n\n同时，高盛还上调...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3742763\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0061475181.USD","symbol_name":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3742763","article_id":"2518733730","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/34c23715-ff14-4dec-81e8-4e039d4c307e.jpeg"],"rights":{"source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3742763","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2518733730","pubTimestamp":1741652858,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"出于对关税政策的担忧，高盛将2025年美国GDP增长预期从2.4%下调至1.7%，将2025年核心PCE物价指数上调至3%；上周五，大摩也将美国今年的经济增速预期从1.9%下调至1.5%，并上调核心PCE物价指数预期至2.7%。Polymarket数据显示，目前，市场预计今年年底前美国官方宣布经济衰退的概率高达40%。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1868837136.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"8\" (USD) ACC","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1868836914.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"3\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"Lowering U.S. GDP forecasts and raising inflation forecasts, the \"optimist\" Goldman Sachs also sees \"stagflation\"","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"随着特朗普的关税政策逐步兑现，华尔街对美国经济前景和“滞胀”风险的担忧正在加剧。\n近日，曾被视为“乐观派”的高盛加入了下调美国经济增长预期的阵营，将2025年美国GDP增长预期从2.4%下调至1.7%，为该行两年多来首次将GDP预测值下调至普遍预期水平下方。\n\n高盛经济团队负责人Jan Hatzius在报告中明确指出：\n\n“下调预期的原因是我们对贸易政策的假设已变得相当不利。”\n\n同时，高盛还上调了美国通胀预期，预计到今年年底，美联储首选通胀指标——核心PCE物价指数将达到3%，高于此前预测的2%中期水平。\n有观点认为，高盛的这一转变标志着市场对“滞胀”风险的担忧正在加速升温。\n关税政策力度超预期，或拖累经济前景\n高盛预计，今年美国平均关税税率将上升10个百分点，是他们之前预测的两倍，也是特朗普第一届政府期间水平的五倍。\n报告解释称，关税将主要通过三个关键渠道影响整体经济前景：一是新关税预计将推高消费者价格，从而削减消费者的实际收入；二是关税通常伴随着金融条件收紧；三是关税实施的不确定性很可能促使企业“推迟投资”。\n就货币政策路径而言，尽管面临通胀黏性，高盛仍预计美联储今年仍有空间在6月和12月降息两次。\n报告同时补充称，特朗普政策的不确定性可能会使央行在短期内保持按兵不动：\n\n“我们的近期观点是，FOMC会希望保持观望，尽量不制造新闻，直到政策前景更加明朗。”\n\n华尔街共识转向衰退和“滞胀”？\n实际上，高盛并非唯一一家下调美国经济预期的华尔街投行。\n上周五，摩根士丹利首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen在给客户的报告中也将2025年美国GDP的增长预期从1.9%下调至1.5%，同时预计核心PCE物价指数将在2025年底达到2.7%，高于此前的2.5%预期。\n\n前太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)的CEO Mohamed El-Erian向媒体表示，他现在预计美国经济今年陷入衰退的可能性为25%至30%，高于特朗普关税政策出台前的10%。\n预测市场平台Polymarket显示，截至周一，市场预计今年年底前美国官方宣布经济衰退的概率约为40%，高于2月27日的23%。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"economic","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2518733730","isCrawlerRequest":true}