巴菲特称关税是“战争行为” 美股市场动荡加剧

智通财经2025-03-04

智通财经APP获悉，“股神”巴菲特近日表示，关税是一种“战争行为”，可能会进一步加剧通胀压力。近期一系列消息冲击市场，投资者情绪恶化，美股在周一再度下跌，纳指一度跌超3%。在总统大选后，许多市场分析人士曾认为，特朗普政府的政策将主要聚焦于放松监管、推动经济增长，而非引发贸易冲突。然而，事实证明，关税正成为其政策议程的核心之一。这种转变已导致市场回吐选后涨幅，美股指数回到了去年11月初的水平。...

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Rosenberg表示：“从市场角度来看，特朗普与市场的‘蜜月期’已经结束。”他指出，目前仅有8%的标普500指数成分股创下52周新高，相比之下，去年11月初这一比例高达25%。他进一步指出：“美股主要指数在大选日之后几乎毫无进展，而这与2016年特朗普当选后的强劲涨势形成鲜明对比。美国经济不仅没有加速，反而正在放缓。”这一趋势并不令人意外。回顾2018年，特朗普首次执政期间，贸易冲突不确定性曾导致标普500指数大幅下跌。而外媒在去年12月也曾警告称，市场可能在总统就职日之后遭遇现实冲击。如今，市场正在消化这一影响，标普500指数在2月经历了显著回调。TS Lombard分析师Jon Harrison指出，特朗普政府在新一轮关税政策上一开始采取了较为温和的策略，如延迟实施、选择性征收等，这使投资者误以为最终会达成某种谈判妥协。然而，上周一系列突如其来的关税与贸易新闻打破了市场的这种“自满”情绪。白宫最近决定对中国商品加征10%额外关税，并推进对墨西哥和加拿大商品的25%关税计划，彻底粉碎了市场对贸易稳定的预期。这一决定还促使投资者重新评估特朗普政府针对欧盟可能采取的25%关税措施的严重性。随着贸易政策的不确定性持续加剧，市场正面临多重挑战。Evercore ISI策略师Julian Emanuel表示：“贸易冲突2.0的持续谈判以及其带来的不确定性，本身就是标普500指数的一个重大不利因素。”与此同时，消费者信心指数开始出现警告信号，消费者支出放缓，政府大规模裁员风险上升，这些因素都可能拖累经济增长。美国就业市场也开始显露裂痕。Emanuel指出，上周美国首次申请失业救济人数的上升，是近期“硬数据”中首次出现的经济疲软迹象。22V Research分析师Dennis DeBusschere表示，当前一系列政策调整可能引发经济的负反馈循环：“如果当前的关税威胁最终落地，美国经济增长已经放缓的情况下，消费者需求可能受到冲击，进一步加剧经济衰退的风险。”尽管市场短期内可能继续承压，投资者并不需要完全放弃美股。Evercore的Emanuel仍预计，标普500指数今年有望上涨至6,800点。DataTrek分析师Nicholas 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