但斌看空英伟达了

易简财经2025-03-04

昨天但斌的一条朋友圈掀起了轩然大波，长期看好纳斯达克的他居然开始看空英伟达了。他表示：“英伟达的周期，不是源自它‘2B’或者‘非平台’的属性，而是在于它始终是个‘资本品’/‘耐用消费品’。如果一个公司的产品是重复消费的‘快速消耗品’，需求量会相对稳定，像食品饮料、在线游戏、煤炭。但如果一个公司的产品是‘资本品’/‘耐用消费品’，因为可复用,下游需求量通常会呈现巨大波动性。所以，杰文斯悖论应用在算力...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2516619910?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-03-04 12:34","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","id":"2516619910","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"但斌看空英伟达了","media":"易简财经","content":"<div>\n<p>昨天但斌的一条朋友圈掀起了轩然大波，长期看好纳斯达克的他居然开始看空英伟达了。他表示：“英伟达的周期，不是源自它‘2B’或者‘非平台’的属性，而是在于它始终是个‘资本品’/‘耐用消费品’。如果一个公司的产品是重复消费的‘快速消耗品’，需求量会相对稳定，像食品饮料、在线游戏、煤炭。但如果一个公司的产品是‘资本品’/‘耐用消费品’，因为可复用,下游需求量通常会呈现巨大波动性。所以，杰文斯悖论应用在算力...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/2025-03-04/doc-inennkcm9900619.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"sina","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>但斌看空英伟达了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n但斌看空英伟达了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-03-04 12:34 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/2025-03-04/doc-inennkcm9900619.shtml><strong>易简财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>昨天但斌的一条朋友圈掀起了轩然大波，长期看好纳斯达克的他居然开始看空英伟达了。他表示：“英伟达的周期，不是源自它‘2B’或者‘非平台’的属性，而是在于它始终是个‘资本品’/‘耐用消费品’。如果一个公司的产品是重复消费的‘快速消耗品’，需求量会相对稳定，像食品饮料、在线游戏、煤炭。但如果一个公司的产品是‘资本品’/‘耐用消费品’，因为可复用,下游需求量通常会呈现巨大波动性。所以，杰文斯悖论应用在算力...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/2025-03-04/doc-inennkcm9900619.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE00B19Z8X17.USD","symbol_name":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/2025-03-04/doc-inennkcm9900619.shtml","article_id":"2516619910","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2516619910","pubTimestamp":1741062840,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"sina","name":"sina"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"昨天但斌的一条朋友圈掀起了轩然大波，长期看好纳斯达克的他居然开始看空英伟达了。对此，DeepSeek认为，但斌的观点属于“偷换概念式正确”，存在明显的逻辑漏洞：1. 混淆资源属性：煤炭烧完就没了，但算力芯片是固定资产，这点没错。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"sina.com.cn","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU1935042215.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (USD) INC A","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","2NVD.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2433249047.HKD":"THEMATICS META \"R/A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2458330243.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A-H1\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0823434740.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US GROWTH \"C\" (USD) INC","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","NVDD":"1倍做空NVDA ETF-Direxion","LU1983260115.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Sustainable Equity A2 SGD-H","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","NVDA":"英伟达","NVDS":"1.5倍做空NVDA ETF-Tradr","NVD2.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","3NVD.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU1496350502.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED DYNAMIC \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","NVD3.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","NVDU":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-Direxion","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","NVDS.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","SNVD.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","LU2065170008.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2505996509.AUD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU0985320562.USD":"NORDEA 1 GLOBAL STARS EQUITY \"BP\" (USD) ACC","LU0096362180.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL FOCUS \"DU\" (USD)","LU0094547139.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","SGXZ99366536.SGD":"United Global Innovation A Acc SGD-H","NVDY":"NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","LU1791710400.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD","LU0472753341.HKD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2286300806.USD":"Allianz Cyber Security AT Acc USD","LU0957791311.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","NVIW.SI":"NVDA 3xLongSG261006"},"translate_title":"Dan Bin is bearish on Nvidia","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDS.UK":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDA":1,"NVDS":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDY":0.6},"content_text":"昨天但斌的一条朋友圈掀起了轩然大波，长期看好纳斯达克的他居然开始看空英伟达了。他表示：“英伟达的周期，不是源自它‘2B’或者‘非平台’的属性，而是在于它始终是个‘资本品’/‘耐用消费品’。如果一个公司的产品是重复消费的‘快速消耗品’，需求量会相对稳定，像食品饮料、在线游戏、煤炭。但如果一个公司的产品是‘资本品’/‘耐用消费品’，因为可复用,下游需求量通常会呈现巨大波动性。所以，杰文斯悖论应用在算力上，有个错误我们之前没注意：模型成本下降，算力效率提升，AI场景确实会得到扩展，算力总需求也会因此大幅提升。但不一样的是，煤炭是一次性消耗资源，而算力是可重复使用的资源；即便每年算力需求总量大幅上升了，但产生算力的ai芯片需求量，也有可能是下降的！简单来说，因为‘可复用资本品’的属性，英伟达产品收入是AI需求的‘二阶导’，而收入增速是‘三阶导’。所以，英伟达周期波动性肯定非常大，即便在AI算力需求一直增长的情况下。”对此，DeepSeek认为，但斌的观点属于“偷换概念式正确”，存在明显的逻辑漏洞：1. 混淆资源属性：煤炭烧完就没了，但算力芯片是固定资产，这点没错。但芯片也有使用寿命（3-5年），且AI应用爆发带来的算力饥渴会迫使企业持续购置新芯片来扩容，就像LED灯省电了，但家家都装100盏灯，总耗电量反而飙升——这时候你会因为旧灯泡没坏就停止买新灯泡吗？2. 忽视技术迭代：AI模型复杂度每年翻倍（参考摩尔定律），现在够用的芯片三年后可能连基础推理都跑不动。就像10年前的显卡跑不了《原神》，效率提升抵不过需求膨胀。3. 低估场景革命：当AI客服成本从100元降到1分钱，每个小卖部都会装10个AI客服，这种指数级场景扩张根本不是现有芯片存量能覆盖的。现实是由于高端芯片获取难度大、公共算力建设不足，算力租赁市场价格暴涨，啪啪打脸“芯片需求下降论”。结论：但斌用静态思维分析动态市场，忽略了技术代差和需求爆破的双重碾压。这就好比说“汽车省油了所以加油站会倒闭”——殊不知省出来的油钱全被更疯狂的公路旅行烧光了。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-2","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.3","shortVersion":"4.42.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2516619910","isCrawlerRequest":true}