资深伯克希尔观察家：巴菲特正在等待股票出现“剧烈下跌”

金十数据2025-02-25

在上周六发布的年度股东信中，巴菲特并未向投资者亮明底牌。但据长期追踪伯克希尔哈撒韦动向的价值投资老将比尔·斯米德（Bill Smead）分析，这位“奥马哈先知”似乎正在等待股市出现重大调整，才会动用其不断膨胀的千亿美元现金储备。在这封信中，巴菲特提供的指导性信息并不多，但他确实指出，在购买机会方面，“没有什么令人兴奋的东西”。斯米德是Smead Capital Management的创始人兼...

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半日穷
2025-02-25
半日穷
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Management的创始人兼董事长，在周一接受采访时提到，伯克希尔继续增加其现金储备，而且巴菲特已准备好应对股票价值的“剧烈波动”。\n斯米德表示：“阅读字里行间的意思，可以看出除非市场出现剧烈下跌，否则他不会对购买感兴趣。”作为一位四十年来一直密切关注巴菲特和伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的观察者，斯米德认为这里的“剧烈下跌”并非指一般的市场调整。他认为，巴菲特正准备迎接一场类似于2000年互联网泡沫破裂后那样的熊市，当时标普500指数从峰值到谷底下跌了49.1%，或者类似2007-2009年或60年代末至70年代初的熊市。\n在信中，巴菲特注意到评论员们大肆讨论伯克希尔不断增长的现金及现金等价物储备，截至2024财年末已超过3000亿美元。巴菲特坚持认为，伯克希尔总是更倾向于拥有企业——无论是完全控制还是大量持有伟大公司的股份——而非持有现金。\n这种“现金为王”的防守姿态与伯克希尔去年1340亿美元的股票净卖出规模形成呼应。斯米德认为，这印证了当前市场估值已令巴菲特难觅出手良机。\n斯米德认为长时间的艰难时期即将来临，他建议投资者效仿“诺亚方舟”策略，构建能抵御长期熊市冲击的投资组合，尤其警惕“美股七巨头”等成长股和被动指数基金可能引发的踩踏式抛售。\n通胀阴云被视作最大威胁。虽然市场将特朗普胜选类比1980年里根时代的牛市起点，但斯米德指出关键差异：里根时代通胀迅速受控，而如今物价压力持续积聚。他以码头工人与波音机械师签署的复合年增8.5%的长期劳资协议为例，警示工资-物价螺旋上升风险正在形成。\n巴菲特在信中虽未明言通胀警告，但字里行间透露出对“财政挥霍” 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‌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/407431902916664","repostId":2514056030,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2514056030","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1740472003,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2514056030?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-02-25 16:26","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"资深伯克希尔观察家：巴菲特正在等待股票出现“剧烈下跌”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2514056030","media":"金十数据","summary":"资深伯克希尔观察家认为，巴菲特正准备迎接一场类似于2000年互联网泡沫破裂后那样的熊市。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><span>在</span><span>上</span><span>周六发布的年度股东信中，巴菲特并未向投资者亮明底牌。但据长期追踪<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>哈撒韦动向的价值投资老将比尔</span><span>·斯米德</span><span>（</span><span>Bill Smead</span><span>）</span><span>分析，<strong>这位</strong></span><strong>“奥马哈先知”似乎正在等待股市出现重大调整，才会动用其不断膨胀的千亿美元现金储备。</strong></p>\n<p><span>在这封信中，巴菲特提供的指导性信息并不多，但他确实指出，在购买机会方面，</span><span>“没有什么令人兴奋的东西”。斯米德</span><span>是</span><span>Smead Capital Management</span><span>的创始人兼董事长，在周一接受采访时提到，<strong>伯克希尔继续增加其现金储备，而且巴菲特已准备好应对股票价值的“剧烈波动”。</strong></span></p>\n<p><span>斯米德表示：</span><span>“阅读字里行间的意思，<strong>可以看出除非市场出现剧烈下跌，否则他不会对购买感兴趣。</strong>”作为一位四十年来一直密切关注巴菲特和伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的观察者，斯米德认为这里的“剧烈下跌”并非指一般的市场调整。<strong>他认为，巴菲特正准备迎接一场类似于</strong></span><strong>2000</strong><span><strong>年互联网泡沫破裂后那样的熊市</strong>，当时标普</span><span>500</span><span>指数从峰值到谷底下跌了</span><span>49.1%</span><span>，或者类似</span><span>2007-2009</span><span>年或</span><span>60</span><span>年代末至</span><span>70</span><span>年代初的熊市。</span></p>\n<p><span>在信中，巴菲特注意到评论员们大肆讨论伯克希尔不断增长的现金及现金等价物储备，截至</span><span>2024</span><span>财年末已超过</span><span>3000</span><span>亿美元。巴菲特坚持认为，伯克希尔总是更倾向于拥有企业——无论是完全控制还是大量持有伟大公司的股份——而非持有现金。</span></p>\n<p><span>这种</span><span>“</span><span>现金为王</span><span>”</span><span>的防守姿态与伯克希尔去年</span>1340亿美元的股票净卖出规模形成呼应。斯米德认为，这印证了当前市场估值已令巴菲特难觅出手良机。</p>\n<p><span>斯米德</span><span>认为</span><span>长时间的艰难时期即将来临</span><span>，</span><span>他建议投资者效仿</span>“诺亚方舟”策略，构建能抵御长期熊市冲击的投资组合，尤其警惕“美股七巨头”等成长股和被动指数基金可能引发的踩踏式抛售。</p>\n<p><span>通胀阴云被视作最大威胁。虽然市场将特朗普胜选类比</span>1980年里根时代的牛市起点，但斯米德指出关键差异：里根时代通胀迅速受控，而如今物价压力持续积聚。他以码头工人与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>机械师签署的复合年增8.5%的长期劳资协议为例，警示工资-物价螺旋上升风险正在形成。</p>\n<p><span>巴菲特在信中虽未明言通胀警告，但字里行间透露出对</span>“财政挥霍” 侵蚀美元购买力的深切忧虑。他提醒投资者，固定收益债券无法对冲恶性通胀风险，而某些国家已深陷债务货币化的泥潭。<strong>对此斯米德解读道：“巴菲特的真意不在说教，而在身教——积累现金，不要急于买入。”</strong></p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>资深伯克希尔观察家：巴菲特正在等待股票出现“剧烈下跌”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n资深伯克希尔观察家：巴菲特正在等待股票出现“剧烈下跌”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-02-25 16:26 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=164742&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在上周六发布的年度股东信中，巴菲特并未向投资者亮明底牌。但据长期追踪伯克希尔哈撒韦动向的价值投资老将比尔·斯米德（Bill Smead）分析，这位“奥马哈先知”似乎正在等待股市出现重大调整，才会动用其不断膨胀的千亿美元现金储备。\n在这封信中，巴菲特提供的指导性信息并不多，但他确实指出，在购买机会方面，“没有什么令人兴奋的东西”。斯米德是Smead Capital Management的创始人兼...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=164742&type=news&data_type=0\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c722f5ba536c320277e3adfcf918b24","relate_stocks":{"IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE000M9KFDE8.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LARGE CAP VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) 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INC"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=164742&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2514056030","content_text":"在上周六发布的年度股东信中，巴菲特并未向投资者亮明底牌。但据长期追踪伯克希尔哈撒韦动向的价值投资老将比尔·斯米德（Bill Smead）分析，这位“奥马哈先知”似乎正在等待股市出现重大调整，才会动用其不断膨胀的千亿美元现金储备。\n在这封信中，巴菲特提供的指导性信息并不多，但他确实指出，在购买机会方面，“没有什么令人兴奋的东西”。斯米德是Smead Capital Management的创始人兼董事长，在周一接受采访时提到，伯克希尔继续增加其现金储备，而且巴菲特已准备好应对股票价值的“剧烈波动”。\n斯米德表示：“阅读字里行间的意思，可以看出除非市场出现剧烈下跌，否则他不会对购买感兴趣。”作为一位四十年来一直密切关注巴菲特和伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的观察者，斯米德认为这里的“剧烈下跌”并非指一般的市场调整。他认为，巴菲特正准备迎接一场类似于2000年互联网泡沫破裂后那样的熊市，当时标普500指数从峰值到谷底下跌了49.1%，或者类似2007-2009年或60年代末至70年代初的熊市。\n在信中，巴菲特注意到评论员们大肆讨论伯克希尔不断增长的现金及现金等价物储备，截至2024财年末已超过3000亿美元。巴菲特坚持认为，伯克希尔总是更倾向于拥有企业——无论是完全控制还是大量持有伟大公司的股份——而非持有现金。\n这种“现金为王”的防守姿态与伯克希尔去年1340亿美元的股票净卖出规模形成呼应。斯米德认为，这印证了当前市场估值已令巴菲特难觅出手良机。\n斯米德认为长时间的艰难时期即将来临，他建议投资者效仿“诺亚方舟”策略，构建能抵御长期熊市冲击的投资组合，尤其警惕“美股七巨头”等成长股和被动指数基金可能引发的踩踏式抛售。\n通胀阴云被视作最大威胁。虽然市场将特朗普胜选类比1980年里根时代的牛市起点，但斯米德指出关键差异：里根时代通胀迅速受控，而如今物价压力持续积聚。他以码头工人与波音机械师签署的复合年增8.5%的长期劳资协议为例，警示工资-物价螺旋上升风险正在形成。\n巴菲特在信中虽未明言通胀警告，但字里行间透露出对“财政挥霍” 侵蚀美元购买力的深切忧虑。他提醒投资者，固定收益债券无法对冲恶性通胀风险，而某些国家已深陷债务货币化的泥潭。对此斯米德解读道：“巴菲特的真意不在说教，而在身教——积累现金，不要急于买入。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":1,"BRK.A":1}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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