麦格理：人形机器人未来5年CAGR将超70%！市场机遇在哪里？

智通财经网2025-02-26

要点我们认为人形机器人主题将引领未来十年发展。中国供应链在技术、创新和成本效益方面具备显著优势。图 1 展示了人形机器人主题股票年初至今（YTD）表现与沪深 300 指数的对比。我们认为，涉足特斯拉供应链对相关企业影响重大，其中对绿的谐波（LHDS）影响最大，其次是三花智控、恒立液压和双环传动。尽管年初至今相关股票价格显著上涨，但随着实际生产逐步落地，仍存在投资机遇。我们预计人形机器人将成为下一个...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250226085549abdd0994&s=b><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>要点我们认为人形机器人主题将引领未来十年发展。中国供应链在技术、创新和成本效益方面具备显著优势。图 1 展示了人形机器人主题股票年初至今（YTD）表现与沪深 300 指数的对比。我们认为，涉足特斯拉供应链对相关企业影响重大，其中对绿的谐波（LHDS）影响最大，其次是三花智控、恒立液压和双环传动。尽管年初至今相关股票价格显著上涨，但随着实际生产逐步落地，仍存在投资机遇。我们预计人形机器人将成为下一个...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250226085549abdd0994&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0943347566.SGD","symbol_name":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM 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CAGR of humanoid robots will exceed 70% in the next 5 years! Where are the market opportunities?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"601100":0.9,"688017":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLL":0.79,"CAGR":1},"content_text":"要点我们认为人形机器人主题将引领未来十年发展。中国供应链在技术、创新和成本效益方面具备显著优势。图 1 展示了人形机器人主题股票年初至今（YTD）表现与沪深 300 指数的对比。我们认为，涉足特斯拉供应链对相关企业影响重大，其中对绿的谐波（LHDS）影响最大，其次是三花智控、恒立液压和双环传动。尽管年初至今相关股票价格显著上涨，但随着实际生产逐步落地，仍存在投资机遇。我们预计人形机器人将成为下一个市场焦点。埃隆・马斯克预计特斯拉在 2027 - 2028 年可实现 50 - 100 万台的大规模生产，不过我们对此稍显谨慎。我们预计 2031 年和 2035 年全球人形机器人产量将分别达到 110 万台和 630 万台，2026 - 2035 年的复合年增长率（CAGR）为 71%。预计 2026 年人形机器人平均售价（ASP）约为 7.4 万美元，到 2035 年降至约 2.2 万美元。到 2035 年，全球人形机器人市场规模有望达到 1390 亿美元，2026 - 2035 年的 CAGR 为 50%。图 2 列出了中国相关优质股票，按推荐顺序排列。市场参与者众多，包括海外的特斯拉、波士顿动力、敏捷机器人，以及中国国内的宇树科技、傅里叶智能和艾吉机器人等。鉴于特斯拉的完全自动驾驶（FSD）技术，以及其在中国成熟的新能源汽车供应链和大型汽车工厂提供的应用场景，我们预计特斯拉将率先实现大规模生产。图 3 展示了相关股票估值。潜在硬件供应商方面，人形机器人有望成为人工智能系统在现实世界应用的最佳载体。我们覆盖的特斯拉人形机器人供应链潜在受益企业包括三花智控（执行器）、绿的谐波（谐波减速器）、恒立液压（滚珠丝杠、线性执行器）、双环传动（行星减速器）和汇川技术（伺服、电机）。敏感性分析显示，如果特斯拉在 2027 - 2028 年实现 50 - 100 万台的大规模生产，对绿的谐波、三花智控、恒立液压和双环传动的影响最大。评级与估值方面，将估值期限延长至 2026 年使我们上调了许多目标价。我们重申对双环传动、汇川技术和三花智控的 “跑赢大盘” 评级（三花智控目标价从 26.00 元上调至 38.20 元，预期市盈率从 27.4 倍上调至 35.0 倍）；对恒立液压维持 “中性” 评级，目标价从 55.50 元上调至 80.50 元，预期市盈率从 25 倍上调至 30.7 倍；对绿的谐波维持 “跑输大盘” 评级，目标价从 56.40 元上调至 73.40 元，预期市盈率维持 60 倍不变。战术观点认为，鉴于年初至今该板块多数股票已上涨 25 - 50%，短期内股价可能出现回调。然而，持续的行业消息将为相关股票提供长期支撑。投资建议及风险：双环传动（002472 CH；跑赢大盘 / 重点买入推荐；目标价：41.20 元人民币）：新能源汽车需求放缓;齿轮行业竞争加剧;工业机器人需求疲软。浙江三花（002050 CH：跑赢大盘；目标价：38.20 元人民币）：原材料成本上升;人民币升值及其对国际运费的影响。汇川技术（300124H；跑赢大盘；目标价：76.00 元人民币）：工业自动化领域定价竞争加剧;下游需求复苏慢于预期。恒立液压（601100 CH；中性；目标价：80.50 元人民币）：国内挖掘机需求强劲反弹。下行风险：国内挖掘机行业价格竞争导致市场进一步收缩;非标油缸及泵阀业务收入增长慢于预期 。绿的谐波（688017 CH；跑输大盘；目标价：73.40 元人民币）：绿的谐波的谐波减速器在中国大型工业机器人制造商中的渗透率不断提高;下游工业机器人市场需求不断增加。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2514024329","isCrawlerRequest":true}