曾经的“特斯拉信徒”：为什么我认为特斯拉今年会跌超50%？

华尔街见闻2025-02-24

在电动车行业，特斯拉曾被视为创新与颠覆的代名词，马斯克也几乎完全被信任。然而，对于曾经的特斯拉忠实支持者Ross Gerber而言，这种信仰如今已不复存在。作为早期投资者，Gerber Kawasaki Wealth & Investment Management的总裁兼首席执行官Gerber对特斯拉的未来持有深切担忧，并在多次公开场合表达了对公司前景的悲观预期。他在2024年将公司的特斯拉...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741722><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在电动车行业，特斯拉曾被视为创新与颠覆的代名词，马斯克也几乎完全被信任。\n然而，对于曾经的特斯拉忠实支持者Ross Gerber而言，这种信仰如今已不复存在。\n作为早期投资者，Gerber Kawasaki Wealth & Investment Management的总裁兼首席执行官Gerber对特斯拉的未来持有深切担忧，并在多次公开场合表达了对公司前景的悲观预期。他在2024年将公司的特斯拉...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741722\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1852331112.SGD","symbol_name":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741722","article_id":"2513718527","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/b01f27f7-dac0-4508-aa32-a5faaed2b5d7.png"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2513718527","pubTimestamp":1740377185,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"作为早期投资者，Ross Gerber在2024年将特斯拉持股减少了31%。他看空四的大理由包括：特斯拉全自动驾驶技术受阻、马斯克注意力分散、销量增长放缓以及高估值风险。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE 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Management的总裁兼首席执行官Gerber对特斯拉的未来持有深切担忧，并在多次公开场合表达了对公司前景的悲观预期。他在2024年将公司的特斯拉股份减少了31%，截至去年年底，他持有262000股特斯拉股票，价值1.06亿美元。\n2025年，他预测特斯拉股价可能下跌超过50%。在经历了2025年初至今近11%的下跌后，特斯拉似乎正步入Gerber所预见的困境。\n\n22日，Gerber在接受Business Insider 采访时，详细阐述了他看空特斯拉的四大核心理由。包括全自动驾驶技术受阻、马斯克注意力分散、销量增长放缓以及高估值风险等因素。\n一、自动驾驶技术受阻：LIDAR缺席成硬伤\nGerber认为，马斯克在今年6月于奥斯汀推出自动驾驶出租车网络的计划过于激进，几乎不可能实现。他指出，特斯拉的自动驾驶系统依赖摄像头而非LIDAR传感器，这与Alphabet旗下Waymo等竞争对手的技术路线截然不同。Gerber表示：“我们在自动驾驶出租车和自动驾驶领域已经明显落后”，并认为Waymo的方案“更安全”。\n他甚至表示：\n“我现在认为，要拥有足够安全的完全自动驾驶系统，必须使用LIDAR。除非改变硬件，否则他们（特斯拉）将遇到瓶颈。”\n二、马斯克精力分散：AI重心转移，特斯拉受冷落\n身兼特斯拉、SpaceX、xAI等多家公司CEO的马斯克，日程排得满满当当。Gerber认为，这对特斯拉股东而言是个问题，尤其考虑到马斯克近几个月似乎将全部精力都投入到了AI领域。他表示：\n\n“他（马斯克）百分之百的精力都放在AI上，这实际上对特斯拉的损害大于对xAI和其他业务的好处，因为他不再在特斯拉工作了。”\n\nGerber强调，如果马斯克能将全部时间投入到完全自动驾驶技术的研发上，他会对特斯拉更有信心。\n三、销量增长放缓：竞争加剧，品牌形象受损\n尽管投资者对特斯拉的自动驾驶和机器人项目充满期待，但汽车销售仍是其核心业务，而这一业务正面临增长放缓的困境。2024年，特斯拉的电动汽车销量首次出现年度下滑。\nGerber认为，来自其他电动车品牌的竞争，对特斯拉在美国以外的市场构成了实质性威胁。\n此外，马斯克与特朗普的密切关系也给特斯拉品牌带来了负面影响。Gerber解释说：\n\n“这引发了人们的愤怒。我从未见过人们对特斯拉如此愤怒，但这并非针对特斯拉公司本身，而是因为马斯克，这是人们唯一能发泄的方式。”\n\n根据德国汽车工业协会（VDA）此前的数据，特斯拉在德国1月份的新车注册量同比下降60%。另有数据显示，公司在法国和挪威的汽车销量分别暴跌63%和38%。\n四、估值过高：溢价难以为继\n长期以来，特斯拉的估值一直高于其他汽车制造商和大型科技公司。然而，如果特斯拉的汽车销量持续下滑，其溢价可能会大幅缩水。\n根据YCharts的数据，特斯拉的市值高达1.1万亿美元，几乎是丰田的5倍，但其去年利润仅为丰田的20%。其118倍的远期市盈率是“Mag7”中第二昂贵股票英伟达的三倍多，也高于其五年平均水平84倍。\nGerber表示：\n\n“对我来说，问题在于，我持有价值1亿美元的特斯拉股票，市盈率高达125倍，这与任何一家正常的Mag 7股票的市盈率都相差甚远。因此，特斯拉的脆弱性在于，如果今年情况不妙，其股价可能会下跌50%。”\n\n一些华尔街主要机构似乎也认同Gerber的观点。摩根大通对特斯拉最近的财报持悲观态度。尽管投资者最初表现出热情，但该行仍坚持135美元的特斯拉目标股价，这意味着较当前水平有60%的潜在下跌空间。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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