AI驱动阿里云估值重建

21世纪经济报道2025-02-24

日前，阿里公布2025财年第三季度财报，季度收入2801.54亿元，同比增长8%。电商业务增长加快，阿里云季度收入重回双位数增长，AI相关产品收入连续六季度保持三位数增长。这一成绩显然超出了市场此前的预期，使得阿里巴巴的股价在财报发布后迅速攀升。在美股市场上，阿里巴巴的股价在盘前交易中大涨9.58%，开盘后更是持续走高，最高涨幅达到了14.59%。目前收盘价为143.75美元，总市值也随之攀升至...

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杰富瑞、美国银行、瑞士银行等外资机构集体将阿里目标价调升至150-170美元区间。表一：外资机构目标价调整财报显示，阿里云业务本季实现收入317亿元，同比增速13%，比上季的7%继续改善，明显好于市场一致预期的9.7%。据公司披露，AI相关需求创造的收入已经连续6个季度保持3位数的增长，显然会增强市场对后续云增长提速的预期。同时，本季度阿里云调整后EBITA利润达到31.4亿元，高出预期的28.3亿元。这轮股价上涨的核心逻辑，在于市场对阿里云价值的重新定义，带动阿里估值的重塑。2月21日，高盛发布最新报告，将阿里巴巴12个月目标股价从117美元大幅上调37%至160美元，主要基于分类加总法（SOTP）中三大关键参数调整：1、阿里云估值倍数提升。由于高盛对阿里云增速预期的显著提升（将2026和2027财年收入增速从13%/14%上调至23%/25%），高盛将阿里云的目标市销率（PS）从2.8倍上调至3.5倍，对应估值贡献从每股ADS 19美元提升至31美元。2、高盛将淘宝天猫的目标市盈率从8倍上调至9倍，主要是基于本季度客户管理收入（CMR）同比增长9%，超市场预期，阿里国内电商商品交易总额（GMV）市场份额趋于稳定。3、SOTP整体折价率从25%降至15%，因云业务占估值比重提升至19%，叠加菜鸟、国际数字商业等亏损业务扭亏，降低非核心资产风险溢价。表二：高盛基于分类加总法（SOTP）的12个月目标价调整Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research同时，汇丰同样将阿里未来12个月的目标价大幅上调至160美元，按照当日美股收盘价125.79美元来说，上涨空间达27.2%。这一调整主要基于分类加总法（SOTP）和现金流折现模型（DCF）两种估值模型的同步修正。在现金流折现模型（DCF）中，维持9.4%资本成本和3.5%永续增长率的前提下，未来三年自由现金流预测值调高。另一方面，分类加总法（SOTP）中，云业务估值倍数从2.8倍市销率升至3.5倍，其每股贡献值增加11美元，同时非核心业务折价率从25%收窄至15%，进一步释放隐性价值。汇丰在报告中指出，估值上涨的一大核心动力来自于云业务层面的突破。阿里管理层在财报电话会上，指出AI推理需求占新增算力采购的60%-70%，推动收入增速预期上调。表三：汇丰基于交叉验证分类加总法（SOTP）测算表明，云业务可为阿里巴巴的公允价值每股增加20美元花旗维持阿里巴巴\"买入\"评级，将港股目标价上调至166港元，美股目标价调至170美元。报告认为阿里巴巴正处于AI转型的关键拐点，通过加大资本支出布局云计算基础设施，有望把握行业变革机遇。花旗将阿里云的估值倍数从4倍市销率（PS）上调至5倍，对应估值达994亿美元（约合每股42.1美元），占阿里整体估值近25%。这一调整基于生成式AI相关收入连续6个季度保持三位数增长，其中推理需求占比超60%，推动2026财年收入增速预期从15%上调至21.8%。表四：花旗基于分类加总法（SOTP）对阿里重新估值从AI Infra层面来说，阿里云是中国最大的云服务厂商，且围绕AI已全面重构底层硬件、计算、存储、网络、数据库、大数据，打造了一个AI时代的最强AI基建。Canalys数据，2024年第三季度，阿里云占据36%的市场份额。从模型层面来说，昨日财报会上，阿里宣布将于近期发布基于千问Qwen2.5-MAX的深度推理模型。1月底，阿里发布了AI基础大模型千问旗舰版Qwen2.5-Max，在多项权威基准评测中，处于业界领先水平。目前，Qwen的全球衍生模型已突破9万个，全球排名第一。从商业化来说，阿里云开源的Qwen虽不直接收费，但通过百炼平台提供付费API接口，衍生模型开发者将自然沉淀在阿里云生态，更关键的是AI应用带来的关联云服务销售。管理层在电话会上表示：“未来90%的token将在云计算网络上生成和输出，这么巨大的模型所计算的量只有在云计算网络上才会具备最高的效率。通过我们遍布全球的数据中心，才能够以更快速的方式去输送给全球的应用开发者。”“我们将AI视为几十年一遇的行业变革机遇，”阿里管理层在电话会上强调，其AI战略的首要目标是突破模型智能能力边界，追求实现AGI。据管理层估算，若AGI达到完成80%人类能力的标准，相关产业可能重构全球50%的GDP构成，这将使AI产业成为未来全球经济的新支柱。微软Azure在2024年第四季度收入同比增长31%，其中AI贡献了13个百分点的增长，年化收入运行率超过130亿美元，PS倍数约为10.5倍。AWS在同期收入增长19%，运营利润率高达35%，PS倍数约为8倍。而阿里云目前的PS倍数约为4-4.5倍，显著低于Azure和AWS，反映市场对其AI商业化潜力的低估。若未来三年阿里云AI收入持续拉升，按照10X 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