非美股票大涨，“美国例外主义”逆转到什么程度了？

华尔街见闻2025-02-20

近期，非美股票表现强劲，而美国股市的相对优势正在减弱。“美国例外主义”逆转到什么程度了？摩根大通Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou团队19日发布的的最新报告，指出自2023年5月至2024年底，美国资产表现优于全球其他地区，表现为美元走强、美国股市表现优于非美股市、科技股优于非科技股，以及美国国债表现逊于全球国债。但2025年初以来，这一趋势出现逆转，非美股市表现优于美国股市，尤其...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741503><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近期，非美股票表现强劲，而美国股市的相对优势正在减弱。“美国例外主义”逆转到什么程度了？\n摩根大通Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou团队19日发布的的最新报告，指出自2023年5月至2024年底，美国资产表现优于全球其他地区，表现为美元走强、美国股市表现优于非美股市、科技股优于非科技股，以及美国国债表现逊于全球国债。\n但2025年初以来，这一趋势出现逆转，非美股市表现优于美国股市，尤其...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741503\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1244550494.USD","symbol_name":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) 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reversed?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"EASI":1},"content_text":"近期，非美股票表现强劲，而美国股市的相对优势正在减弱。“美国例外主义”逆转到什么程度了？\n摩根大通Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou团队19日发布的的最新报告，指出自2023年5月至2024年底，美国资产表现优于全球其他地区，表现为美元走强、美国股市表现优于非美股市、科技股优于非科技股，以及美国国债表现逊于全球国债。\n但2025年初以来，这一趋势出现逆转，非美股市表现优于美国股市，尤其是欧洲和中国股市。摩根大通指出，大多数资产的逆转幅度约为2023年5月至2024年底走势的10%到20%。中国股的逆转幅度更大。\n尽管部分指标显示美国例外主义主题的逆转可能已经走远，但从价格和定位的角度来看，这种逆转仍在进行中，且程度相对有限。摩根大通认为，对于美元和美国相对于全球其他地区的股票基金流动，这种逆转仍然相对温和。这意味着，尽管市场格局正在发生变化，但美国在全球经济和金融市场中的重要性依然不可忽视。\n非美股市股市受青睐，欧洲经济意外表现优于美国\n资金流动的变化是这种逆转的重要体现。摩根大通的数据显示，欧洲股市的资金流入百分位数已接近2023年的高点，显示出投资者对欧洲股市的兴趣显著增加。相比之下，美国股市的资金流入百分位数有所下降。\n\n自年初以来，美元和美国相对于全球其他地区的股票基金流动的逆转相对温和，而美国科技股相对于非科技股的定位变化不大。\n值得注意的是，研报指出，恒生中国企业指数和欧洲斯托克50指数的动量信号显示出超买迹象，但这种超买状态可能持续数月。\n经济数据的变化也为这种逆转提供了基本面支持。摩根大通的经济活动惊喜指数（EASI）显示，2025年初，欧洲的宏观经济数据表现意外优于美国。这种数据背离表明，欧洲经济的复苏可能比市场预期的更为强劲，而美国经济的增长则面临一定的不确定性。\n\n此外，俄乌冲突可能停火的乐观情绪也推动了欧洲股市的表现，进一步增强了投资者对欧洲市场的信心。\n美国国债市场的困境：SLR排除能否带来转机？\n美国国债市场也面临着类似的困境。过去几年，美国补充杠杆比率（SLR）对国债市场的流动性产生了限制。\n摩根大通指出，如果SLR排除措施能够实施，可能会在一定程度上缓解国债市场的“不便”，但这种影响可能相对有限。因为除了SLR约束外，交易商资产负债表的限制和养老基金对久期的需求等因素，也在持续影响国债市场的表现。\n\n最后，加密货币市场也未能幸免于这种市场情绪的变化。自2024年12月达到3.72万亿美元的峰值后，加密货币市值已下降15%，目前为3.17万亿美元。比特币和以太坊期货接近贴水状态，显示出需求减弱的迹象。这种趋势可能与市场对风险资产的偏好下降有关，也反映了投资者对全球经济不确定性的担忧。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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