中信证券：深剖固态电池工艺与设备，挖掘投资新机遇

格隆汇2025-02-11

本文来自格隆汇专栏：中信证券研究，作者：刘海博李越固态电池面临固固界面接触等技术瓶颈，目前仍处于产业化初级阶段。当下我国主要选择固液混合电池的渐进性发展路线，但需防范激进性全固态技术路线可能带来的颠覆性风险。本篇报告主要沿着“材料-工艺-设备”的底层逻辑路线，系统性分析了固态电池的制造工艺以及相应的设备变化，并通过对固态电池各工序设备价值量的定量测算，分析固态电池设备投资的重点方向。基于定性和...

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李越固态电池面临固固界面接触等技术瓶颈，目前仍处于产业化初级阶段。当下我国主要选择固液混合电池的渐进性发展路线，但需防范激进性全固态技术路线可能带来的颠覆性风险。本篇报告主要沿着“材料-工艺-设备”的底层逻辑路线，系统性分析了固态电池的制造工艺以及相应的设备变化，并通过对固态电池各工序设备价值量的定量测算，分析固态电池设备投资的重点方向。基于定性和定量分析，我们总结出两条投资主线：1）整线设备供应商；2）核心设备供应商。▍固态锂电池：高安全、高能量密度的下一代电池技术。固态锂电池的根本特征在于用固态电解质替代电解液，具有高安全性和高能量密度等突出优势，因此被公认为电池技术发展的主流方向。根据是否含有电解液，固态电池分为固液混合电池和全固态电池；根据固态电解质的不同，主要分为聚合物、氧化物和硫化物三大路线。全固态电池的产业化面临材料/界面/电极/电芯层面的众多挑战，其中固固界面接触问题是主要瓶颈。日韩和欧美国家对固态电池的研发起步较早，主攻全固态电池，而我国在市场驱动下选择固液混合电池作为过渡技术。▍渐进性路线：采用原位固态化技术的固液混合电池。固液混合电池保留着少量电解液，能够有效解决固固界面问题，同时在安全性和能量密度方面亦有改善，具备率先商业化的潜力，根据中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟的统计，2024年上半年已实现累计装车量达2154.7 MWh。固液混合电池可在传统液态电池的基础上通过多种方式引入固态电解质，其中原位固态化技术已成为主流技术，被国内多家企业采用。通过原位固态化技术，有望渐进性地实现全固态电池制造。▍工艺分析：全固态电池制造工艺需适应材料和结构的变化。全固态电池的制造工艺环节主要包括前段的电极极片和固态电解质膜制造、以及中后段的电芯组装与化成。1）电极和电解质膜制造：分为湿法和干法两种工艺路线，湿法工艺在现阶段的量产可行性较高，而干法工艺凭借低能耗、低成本、高能量密度等优势有望逐步成为主流。2）电芯组装与化成：氧化物和硫化物全固态电池需要进行加压处理改善固固界面接触，因此软包叠片有望成为主流工艺，从而衍生出一体化叠片、等静压和双极架构等新的电芯组装工艺，且在化成环节也要求更高压力。▍设备分析：前、中、后段设备均有变化，大规模制造面临挑战。全固态电池制造工艺的变化需要相应设备来配合。1）前段设备：干法设备包括干混设备、纤维化设备、造粒设备和成膜设备，将逐步替代湿法设备，且新增电解质热复合设备。其中辊压设备承担的工序增加（成膜、热复合、负极补锂等），技术要求提升，有望迎来量价齐升。2）中后段设备：注液设备取消，叠片设备取代卷绕机的主导地位，等静压设备和高压化成分容设备成为必选。但是由于单个电芯的加压持续时间较长，难以实现连续化生产，大规模制造面临挑战。进一步定量分析，我们预计单GWh液态/半固态/全固态电池设备投资量分别为1.2亿/1.5亿/2.5亿元，其中半固态和全固态电池的前段设备价值量绝对值和占比均明显提升。▍市场空间：预计2030年国内固态电池设备投资额接近200亿元。固态电池的重点渗透领域包括中高端动力电池、消费电池、eVTOL电池等，中信证券研究部电池与能源管理团队测算预计2030年全球固体电池出货量将达到556GWh，中商产业研究院预计2030年国内固态电池出货量约为251GWh，主要为固液混合电池，全固态电池渗透率可能不足1%。但随着固态电池技术的发展，设备需求有望先行。根据《固态锂电池技术发展白皮书》统计，目前国内固态电池规划产能已达数百GWh，将有力拉动固态电池设备投资。经我们测算，2030年国内固态电池设备投资额约为178.1亿元。▍风险因素：技术发展存在不确定性，市场需求不及预期，上下游产业链协同不足，其他新型电池技术的替代风险，政策不及预期与国际竞争加剧。▍投资策略：固态电池面临固固界面接触等技术瓶颈，目前仍处于产业化初级阶段。当下我国主要选择固液混合电池的渐进性发展路线，但需防范激进性全固态技术路线可能带来的颠覆性风险。本篇报告主要沿着“材料-工艺-设备”的底层逻辑路线，系统性分析了固态电池的制造工艺以及相应的设备变化，并通过对固态电池各工序设备价值量的定量测算，分析固态电池设备投资的重点方向。基于定性和定量分析，我们总结出两条投资主线：1）整线设备供应商；2）核心设备供应商。本文节选自中信证券研究部已于2025年2月10日发布的《机械行业固态电池设备深度报告—深剖固态电池工艺与设备，挖掘投资新机遇》报告，分析师：刘海博 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