特朗普关税影响有多大？高盛：美股短期或下跌5%

智通财经2025-02-03

智通财经获悉，高盛策略师表示，由于特朗普政府的最新一轮关税影响了盈利预测，未来几个月美国股市有可能下跌5%。特朗普宣布对从墨西哥和加拿大进口的商品征收25%的关税，该关税将于周二生效，除非最后一刻达成协议。中国将被征收10%的关税，而特朗普还重申了对欧盟的警告，即关税“肯定会发生”。高盛策略师David Kostin在一份报告中写道：“这些声明令许多投资者感到震惊，他们预计只有在贸易谈判失败的情况...

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Goldman Sachs: U.S. stocks may fall 5% in the short term","themeId":"307c10ed463fbcb610bb71f607209238","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"智通财经获悉，高盛策略师表示，由于特朗普政府的最新一轮关税影响了盈利预测，未来几个月美国股市有可能下跌5%。特朗普宣布对从墨西哥和加拿大进口的商品征收25%的关税，该关税将于周二生效，除非最后一刻达成协议。中国将被征收10%的关税，而特朗普还重申了对欧盟的警告，即关税“肯定会发生”。高盛策略师David Kostin在一份报告中写道：“这些声明令许多投资者感到震惊，他们预计只有在贸易谈判失败的情况下才会征收关税。我们的经济学家认为前景不明朗，但认为对加拿大和墨西哥的关税很可能是暂时的。”Kostin表示，如果持续下去，最新的关税将使他对标普500指数成分股公司的盈利预测下调约2%至3%，这还没有考虑到金融环境进一步收紧或消费者和企业行为变化的影响。他还警告说，由于盈利和股票估值双双受到打击，标普500指数的公允价值可能在短期内下跌约5%。2024年初，Kostin是对美国股市较为谨慎的声音之一，之后他在一年内多次上调年终目标，以赶上标普500指数的反弹。对于2025年底，这位策略师设定了6500点的目标，这意味着比上周五收盘时上涨约8%。尽管标普500指数在1月份上涨了2.7%，但投资者情绪受到了影响，因为他们担心特朗普的政策会导致通胀。科技股也因担心美国可能无法保持人工智能创新的领先地位而受到影响。由于担心最新的关税举措可能导致全面的贸易战，全球股市周一暴跌。所有人都在关注第四季度财报季，以寻找美国企业如何为特朗普的保护主义议程做准备的线索。尽管现在还处于早期阶段，但关税问题已经主导了财报发布后的电话会议。摩根士丹利策略师Michael Wilson是2024年年中之前最著名的看空股市的人士之一。他表示，迄今为止，美国股市对持续征收关税的可能性持乐观态度，但这种观点“可能会受到考验，因为这些关税持续的时间越长”。加拿大皇家银行资本市场策略师Lori Calvasina也警告称，在关税宣布后，由于投资者敞口高、股票估值高，标普500指数下跌5%至10%的可能性加大。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"economic","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.3","shortVersion":"4.42.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2508113431","isCrawlerRequest":true}