中概全线上涨！

Wind万得2025-01-31

1月30日，美股市场在经历了一番剧烈震荡后全线收涨。与此同时，中概股板块集体走强，多只主要指数和ETF纷纷上涨。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨168.61点，涨幅0.38%，收于44,882.13点；标准普尔500指数微升0.53%，报6,071.17点；纳斯达克综合指数也小幅攀升0.25%，收于19,681.75点。Direxion 3倍做多每日中概股ETF (YINN) 大涨 6.82%, ...

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Platforms和特斯拉相继公布了优于预期的表现。Meta在2024年第四季度财报中创下了新纪录，主要得益于人工智能技术在广告业务方面的推动；而特斯拉尽管在营收和盈利上略有失色，但其对2025年的展望依然乐观，并计划推出完全自动驾驶服务。微软则在公布财报后股价下跌6.2%，因新季度营收预期不及市场预期。不过，华尔街对微软的基本面仍保持一定信心，认为公司的云计算和企业服务板块依然具备较强竞争力。与上述几家科技巨头相比，苹果备受市场瞩目。周四盘后，苹果正式公布了其截至12月28日的第一财季业绩，整体营收达到1243亿美元，略高于市场此前1241.2亿美元的平均预估值；每股收益2.40美元，也超过预期的2.35美元。其中，iPhone营收为691.4亿美元，虽低于市场预期的710.3亿美元，但Mac和iPad分别录得89.9亿美元与80.9亿美元，高于分析师预估的79.6亿美元和73.2亿美元。服务业务的表现最为稳健，贡献了263.4亿美元收入，较去年同期增长14%。据报道，Oppenheimer近期将苹果评级从“跑赢大盘”下调至“与大盘一致”，这是苹果1月份以来第五次遭下调评级。Oppenheimer分析师Martin Yang表示， Apple Intelligence与更多生成式人工智能应用场景尚不足以驱动消费者加快换机周期。苹果财报中另一项亮点来自于Mac和iPad销售大幅攀升，分别实现了15%的同比增长。库克将此归功于去年10月发布的新款iMac、Mac Mini和MacBook Pro，以及新款iPad mini的市场热度。而更为稳定的“服务”板块依旧是苹果的盈利“发动机”，包含云服务、Apple TV+、Apple Music和App Store抽成等多项业务，季度收入再度创出新高，达到263.4亿美元。与此同时，苹果也宣布将派发每股0.25美元的股息，并在第一财季斥资300亿美元用于股票回购和派息。// 美联储政策 //宏观数据方面，美国第四季度GDP仅增长2.3%，不及此前分析师预期，显示出经济增速放缓的压力。另一方面，美联储在1月29日的议息会议上维持联邦基金利率目标区间在4.25%至4.50%之间不变，标志着自去年9月开始连续降息以来，首次暂缓调整政策利率。决议公布后，美联储在声明中强调通胀仍保持“相对较高”水平，但目前暂无进一步放松货币政策的迫切需求。市场普遍预期，美联储在通胀率进一步回落之前，会保持观望态度。对于美联储此举，拥有“新债王”之称的DoubleLine Capital创始人杰弗里·冈拉克（Jeffrey Gundlach）评论说，美联储可能在未来数月按兵不动，因为通胀尚未出现大幅下行趋势。他表示：“在通胀明显回落前，美联储似乎不急于采取进一步行动，下一次议息会议大概率也不会降息。”贝莱德投资组合经理Jeffrey Rosenberg也持类似看法，认为美联储已经释放了“偏向谨慎”的信号，而维持现行利率区间也符合当前美国经济韧性和通胀较高的背景。债市方面，由于市场对美国经济强劲复苏和通胀黏性的判断持续发酵，美国国债收益率在去年年底以来出现大幅攀升。再加上特朗普政府的政策动向尚不明朗，投资者对其潜在刺激措施和国际贸易关系方面的担忧，使得债券市场出现一定程度的观望情绪。Thornburg Investment Management投资组合经理Lon Erickson指出，人们对美国政府的政策思路并不十分确定，而较高的通胀预期也让长期债券收益率承压上行。与之相呼应的是，华尔街对后市的看法也呈现显著分歧。著有《黑天鹅》的著名学者纳西姆·塔勒布（Nassim Taleb）近日在迈阿密对冲基金论坛上直言，英伟达周一暴跌17%“只是一个开始”，AI概念股可能还将迎来更剧烈的回调。他认为，市场此前对AI驱动的热潮几近“盲目乐观”，如果现实状况达不到预期，科技股的价格调整或许会比这次下跌的幅度更大，甚至可能出现两到三倍于17%跌幅的进一步回调。然而，高盛策略团队则持相对乐观态度，他们认为近期AI相关概念的急挫不意味着市场将出现持续的深度回调。高盛的Peter 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