英伟达在跌什么

信息平权2024-12-18

1. 供应链先贴一张台湾福邦投顾今天刚出的数字，最新调整后的GB200+GB300下单量，以及更新后的时间表。量就不解释了，大家自行理解。时间表和鸿海最新口径对齐了：GB要到农历新年2月后进入MP大规模量产出货。4个月后GB300小批量，就是我们之前说的，中间给GB200的时间有点短...过去一个多月我们反复提到“存在一堆小问题”，CoWoS-L、发热、铜缆、漏液等等，整体良率的爬升需要更多时间，...

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小杨
2024-12-18
小杨
说得很好！
下周减肥大胃蔡
2024-12-18
下周减肥大胃蔡
学习了

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law叙事变化和推理叙事的加强；3）软件和应用、BTC、Tesla/Waymo，从资金角度都是对手叙事...尤其对于散户来说，选择更多。大部分都消化个七七八八了，除了ASIC叙事和推理叙事，在过去两周互相加强。尤其是Ilya的讲话和Satya的模型“贬值论”，让模型训练叙事向推理偏移，这时候恰逢AVGO博通CEO出来放卫星，ASIC之前就被AWS Tr2炒热的情绪被进一步点燃。继而有人开始质疑英伟达GPU的TCO（总拥有成本）...比如昨天上传的大摩ASIC深度报告，收到最多反馈的就是那张TCO对比图，活活把GPU给“算死了”。细节不展开，重点是这代表了目前市场一种“观点”，就是觉得ASIC还真有戏。今天产业群大佬们讨论最激烈的也是，ASIC到底对于CSP的价值是什么，以及如果未来重点是小模型推理，GB200还有如此大的优势与否。这都是最近非常有代表性的观点。3. 纯粹的垃圾时间就是到年底了，无论散户、ETF还是机构，都在平衡和调仓，看看最近的微软苹果尤其是谷歌。切高换底落袋为安，然后去过圣诞...是很多资金的选择。4. 下一个催化剂1月CES上老黄的讲话期待不要太高，CES本就是消费电子展。2月底业绩也不用期待了，因为只看Q4 buffer不大。然后就是3月GTC，看看Rubin能展开些什么。但个人觉得边际“惊喜”不会大于上一次GTC，那时训练为主、供给侧叙事为主，NVL72的横空出世简直是跨时代的绝杀。现在单纯靠“供给侧更牛逼”可能有点难。那NV更应该期待的是什么呢？能挪动3万亿的NV，只能是一个新的“算力叙事”，一个进一步打开算力想象力的叙事，就是Agent或任何super app。这早晚会发生，时间问题。o1开了个头，OpenAI 12连发的最后可能开第二个头，不知道哪里还会冒出其他东西。老黄曾经说过当全世界每个实体都在7*24小时跑推理的时候，AI就真的成功了。如果这算终极目标，那的确算力还有很长的路可以走，NV也是。ASIC or GPU、软件or硬件，只是这个大叙事下的小叙事。AI已经停不下来了，人类以后也离不开算力了。NV咋办呢？短期压力是有的，就是跌到什么价格抄底的问题，欢迎来加入讨论。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":382761046642792,"gmtCreate":1734482814143,"gmtModify":1734482816124,"author":{"id":"89030561405403","authorId":"89030561405403","name":"小杨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cd5f94b0f608ed744a75ec8504fe854","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"89030561405403","authorIdStr":"89030561405403"},"htmlText":"说得很好！","listText":"说得很好！","text":"说得很好！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382761046642792","repostId":2492331910,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2492331910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1734481109,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2492331910?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-12-18 08:18","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"英伟达在跌什么","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2492331910","media":"信息平权","summary":"分析认为，英伟达GB要到农历新年2月后进入MP大规模量产出货，4个月后GB300小批量，中间给GB200的时间有点短，而且芯片还“存在一堆小问题”。并且，英伟达正面临着ASIC等强有力的竞争对手，近期很多资金还在切高换底落袋为安，准备过圣诞……","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>1. 供应链</strong></p><p>先贴一张台湾福邦投顾今天刚出的数字，<strong>最新调整后的GB200+GB300下单量，以及更新后的时间表。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ab19ffe4aa20366cbe1f70a987facf91\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"383\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d466eeb17f867ef7644c83cebed1369e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"235\"/></p><p>量就不解释了，大家自行理解。时间表和鸿海最新口径对齐了：<strong>GB要到农历新年2月后进入MP大规模量产出货。</strong>4个月后GB300小批量，就是我们之前说的，中间给GB200的时间有点短...</p><p>过去一个多月我们反复提到<strong>“存在一堆小问题</strong>”，CoWoS-L、发热、铜缆、漏液等等，整体良率的爬升需要更多时间，且按照老黄原话“不同客户不同配置下，系统集成也需要时间”。请注意，这是前提原因，因此才会有后面所谓<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>转单、NV建议客户先买B200 8卡HGX</strong>。同时我们也<strong>上传过CFO和IR最近的2次小会</strong>，口径是比较乐观的——“Blackwell在Q1依然有可能超过Hopper”，意味着GB200就算ramp up缓慢，但大部分压力其实都给了ODM（看看鸿海广达的股价吧...）因为按照<strong>Buy&amp;sell模式</strong>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>卖了计算板卡给鸿海就确认收入，而最棘手的机柜集成耗得越久，鸿海替NV扛的<strong>库存周期就越长.</strong>..因此NV<strong>总归会想方设法出货chip交付合格业绩</strong>，但可想而知upside不会太大，何况H那边也有压力...</p><p><strong>2.叙事对手</strong></p><p>相比8月那次delay的最大变化是：<strong>1)出现一个对手叙事ASIC；2）scaling law叙事变化和推理叙事的加强；3）软件和应用、BTC、Tesla/Waymo，从资金角度都是对手叙事...尤其对于散户来说，选择更多</strong>。</p><p>大部分都消化个七七八八了，除了<strong>ASIC叙事和推理叙事，在过去两周互相加强。</strong>尤其是<strong>Ilya的讲话和Satya的模型“贬值论</strong>”，让模型训练叙事向推理偏移，这时候恰逢<strong>AVGO<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>CEO</strong>出来放卫星，ASIC之前就被AWS Tr2炒热的情绪被进一步点燃。继而有人开始质疑英伟达GPU的TCO（总拥有成本）...比如昨天<strong>上传的大摩ASIC深度报告</strong>，收到最多反馈的就是那张TCO对比图，活活把GPU给“算死了”。细节不展开，重点是这代表了目前市场一种“观点”，就是觉得ASIC还真有戏。</p><p>今天产业群大佬们讨论最激烈的也是，ASIC到底对于CSP的价值是什么，以及如果<strong>未来重点是小模型推理，GB200还有如此大的优势与否。</strong>这都是最近非常有代表性的观点。</p><p><strong>3. 纯粹的垃圾时间</strong></p><p>就是到年底了，无论散户、ETF还是机构，都在平衡和调仓，看看最近的微软<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>尤其是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>。<strong>切高换底落袋为安，然后去过圣诞...</strong>是很多资金的选择。</p><p><strong>4. 下一个催化剂</strong></p><p>1月CES上老黄的讲话期待不要太高，CES本就是消费电子展。2月底业绩也不用期待了，因为只看Q4 buffer不大。然后就是3月GTC，看看Rubin能展开些什么。但个人觉得<strong>边际“惊喜”不会大于上一次GTC</strong>，那时训练为主、供给侧叙事为主，NVL72的横空出世简直是跨时代的绝杀。现在单纯靠<strong>“供给侧更牛逼”</strong>可能有点难。<strong>那NV更应该期待的是什么呢？</strong></p><p>能挪动3万亿的NV，只能是一个新的“算力叙事”，一个进一步打开算力想象力的叙事，就是Agent或任何super app。这早晚会发生，时间问题。o1开了个头，OpenAI 12连发的最后可能开第二个头，不知道哪里还会冒出其他东西。老黄曾经说过当全世界每个实体都在7*24小时跑推理的时候，AI就真的成功了。如果这算终极目标，那的确算力还有很长的路可以走，NV也是。ASIC or GPU、软件or硬件，只是这个大叙事下的小叙事。<strong>AI已经停不下来了，人类以后也离不开算力了。</strong></p><p>NV咋办呢？短期压力是有的，就是跌到什么价格抄底的问题，欢迎来加入讨论。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1709533022050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达在跌什么</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达在跌什么\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-18 08:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkyMTU4OTE2OA==&mid=2247489853&idx=1&sn=e1c7b0f94de51aa6caf97451f7cff2a0&chksm=c0a1cf2648b2557989b7534a710573eb8020b09772c87aa271c893a3ab3eb985bf90f27a5613&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=1218OfzRZuGSIcb3KNICkxZl&sharer_shareinfo=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345&sharer_shareinfo_first=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345#rd><strong>信息平权</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>1. 供应链先贴一张台湾福邦投顾今天刚出的数字，最新调整后的GB200+GB300下单量，以及更新后的时间表。量就不解释了，大家自行理解。时间表和鸿海最新口径对齐了：GB要到农历新年2月后进入MP大规模量产出货。4个月后GB300小批量，就是我们之前说的，中间给GB200的时间有点短...过去一个多月我们反复提到“存在一堆小问题”，CoWoS-L、发热、铜缆、漏液等等，整体良率的爬升需要更多时间，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkyMTU4OTE2OA==&mid=2247489853&idx=1&sn=e1c7b0f94de51aa6caf97451f7cff2a0&chksm=c0a1cf2648b2557989b7534a710573eb8020b09772c87aa271c893a3ab3eb985bf90f27a5613&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=1218OfzRZuGSIcb3KNICkxZl&sharer_shareinfo=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345&sharer_shareinfo_first=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345#rd\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bd13d142ea44844b91b221ba6d12ed2","relate_stocks":{"LU1935042488.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (USD) INC","NVDS":"1.5倍做空NVDA ETF-Tradr","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4579":"人工智能","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","NVDU":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-Direxion","LU1066051225.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AC\" (USD) ACC","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) 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TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","NVD2.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkyMTU4OTE2OA==&mid=2247489853&idx=1&sn=e1c7b0f94de51aa6caf97451f7cff2a0&chksm=c0a1cf2648b2557989b7534a710573eb8020b09772c87aa271c893a3ab3eb985bf90f27a5613&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=1218OfzRZuGSIcb3KNICkxZl&sharer_shareinfo=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345&sharer_shareinfo_first=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2492331910","content_text":"1. 供应链先贴一张台湾福邦投顾今天刚出的数字，最新调整后的GB200+GB300下单量，以及更新后的时间表。量就不解释了，大家自行理解。时间表和鸿海最新口径对齐了：GB要到农历新年2月后进入MP大规模量产出货。4个月后GB300小批量，就是我们之前说的，中间给GB200的时间有点短...过去一个多月我们反复提到“存在一堆小问题”，CoWoS-L、发热、铜缆、漏液等等，整体良率的爬升需要更多时间，且按照老黄原话“不同客户不同配置下，系统集成也需要时间”。请注意，这是前提原因，因此才会有后面所谓微软转单、NV建议客户先买B200 8卡HGX。同时我们也上传过CFO和IR最近的2次小会，口径是比较乐观的——“Blackwell在Q1依然有可能超过Hopper”，意味着GB200就算ramp up缓慢，但大部分压力其实都给了ODM（看看鸿海广达的股价吧...）因为按照Buy&sell模式，英伟达卖了计算板卡给鸿海就确认收入，而最棘手的机柜集成耗得越久，鸿海替NV扛的库存周期就越长...因此NV总归会想方设法出货chip交付合格业绩，但可想而知upside不会太大，何况H那边也有压力...2.叙事对手相比8月那次delay的最大变化是：1)出现一个对手叙事ASIC；2）scaling law叙事变化和推理叙事的加强；3）软件和应用、BTC、Tesla/Waymo，从资金角度都是对手叙事...尤其对于散户来说，选择更多。大部分都消化个七七八八了，除了ASIC叙事和推理叙事，在过去两周互相加强。尤其是Ilya的讲话和Satya的模型“贬值论”，让模型训练叙事向推理偏移，这时候恰逢AVGO博通CEO出来放卫星，ASIC之前就被AWS Tr2炒热的情绪被进一步点燃。继而有人开始质疑英伟达GPU的TCO（总拥有成本）...比如昨天上传的大摩ASIC深度报告，收到最多反馈的就是那张TCO对比图，活活把GPU给“算死了”。细节不展开，重点是这代表了目前市场一种“观点”，就是觉得ASIC还真有戏。今天产业群大佬们讨论最激烈的也是，ASIC到底对于CSP的价值是什么，以及如果未来重点是小模型推理，GB200还有如此大的优势与否。这都是最近非常有代表性的观点。3. 纯粹的垃圾时间就是到年底了，无论散户、ETF还是机构，都在平衡和调仓，看看最近的微软苹果尤其是谷歌。切高换底落袋为安，然后去过圣诞...是很多资金的选择。4. 下一个催化剂1月CES上老黄的讲话期待不要太高，CES本就是消费电子展。2月底业绩也不用期待了，因为只看Q4 buffer不大。然后就是3月GTC，看看Rubin能展开些什么。但个人觉得边际“惊喜”不会大于上一次GTC，那时训练为主、供给侧叙事为主，NVL72的横空出世简直是跨时代的绝杀。现在单纯靠“供给侧更牛逼”可能有点难。那NV更应该期待的是什么呢？能挪动3万亿的NV，只能是一个新的“算力叙事”，一个进一步打开算力想象力的叙事，就是Agent或任何super app。这早晚会发生，时间问题。o1开了个头，OpenAI 12连发的最后可能开第二个头，不知道哪里还会冒出其他东西。老黄曾经说过当全世界每个实体都在7*24小时跑推理的时候，AI就真的成功了。如果这算终极目标，那的确算力还有很长的路可以走，NV也是。ASIC or GPU、软件or硬件，只是这个大叙事下的小叙事。AI已经停不下来了，人类以后也离不开算力了。NV咋办呢？短期压力是有的，就是跌到什么价格抄底的问题，欢迎来加入讨论。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDY":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDA":1,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":382761508012056,"gmtCreate":1734482694981,"gmtModify":1734482696841,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"htmlText":"学习了","listText":"学习了","text":"学习了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382761508012056","repostId":2492331910,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2492331910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1734481109,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2492331910?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-12-18 08:18","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"英伟达在跌什么","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2492331910","media":"信息平权","summary":"分析认为，英伟达GB要到农历新年2月后进入MP大规模量产出货，4个月后GB300小批量，中间给GB200的时间有点短，而且芯片还“存在一堆小问题”。并且，英伟达正面临着ASIC等强有力的竞争对手，近期很多资金还在切高换底落袋为安，准备过圣诞……","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>1. 供应链</strong></p><p>先贴一张台湾福邦投顾今天刚出的数字，<strong>最新调整后的GB200+GB300下单量，以及更新后的时间表。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ab19ffe4aa20366cbe1f70a987facf91\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"383\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d466eeb17f867ef7644c83cebed1369e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"235\"/></p><p>量就不解释了，大家自行理解。时间表和鸿海最新口径对齐了：<strong>GB要到农历新年2月后进入MP大规模量产出货。</strong>4个月后GB300小批量，就是我们之前说的，中间给GB200的时间有点短...</p><p>过去一个多月我们反复提到<strong>“存在一堆小问题</strong>”，CoWoS-L、发热、铜缆、漏液等等，整体良率的爬升需要更多时间，且按照老黄原话“不同客户不同配置下，系统集成也需要时间”。请注意，这是前提原因，因此才会有后面所谓<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>转单、NV建议客户先买B200 8卡HGX</strong>。同时我们也<strong>上传过CFO和IR最近的2次小会</strong>，口径是比较乐观的——“Blackwell在Q1依然有可能超过Hopper”，意味着GB200就算ramp up缓慢，但大部分压力其实都给了ODM（看看鸿海广达的股价吧...）因为按照<strong>Buy&amp;sell模式</strong>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>卖了计算板卡给鸿海就确认收入，而最棘手的机柜集成耗得越久，鸿海替NV扛的<strong>库存周期就越长.</strong>..因此NV<strong>总归会想方设法出货chip交付合格业绩</strong>，但可想而知upside不会太大，何况H那边也有压力...</p><p><strong>2.叙事对手</strong></p><p>相比8月那次delay的最大变化是：<strong>1)出现一个对手叙事ASIC；2）scaling law叙事变化和推理叙事的加强；3）软件和应用、BTC、Tesla/Waymo，从资金角度都是对手叙事...尤其对于散户来说，选择更多</strong>。</p><p>大部分都消化个七七八八了，除了<strong>ASIC叙事和推理叙事，在过去两周互相加强。</strong>尤其是<strong>Ilya的讲话和Satya的模型“贬值论</strong>”，让模型训练叙事向推理偏移，这时候恰逢<strong>AVGO<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>CEO</strong>出来放卫星，ASIC之前就被AWS Tr2炒热的情绪被进一步点燃。继而有人开始质疑英伟达GPU的TCO（总拥有成本）...比如昨天<strong>上传的大摩ASIC深度报告</strong>，收到最多反馈的就是那张TCO对比图，活活把GPU给“算死了”。细节不展开，重点是这代表了目前市场一种“观点”，就是觉得ASIC还真有戏。</p><p>今天产业群大佬们讨论最激烈的也是，ASIC到底对于CSP的价值是什么，以及如果<strong>未来重点是小模型推理，GB200还有如此大的优势与否。</strong>这都是最近非常有代表性的观点。</p><p><strong>3. 纯粹的垃圾时间</strong></p><p>就是到年底了，无论散户、ETF还是机构，都在平衡和调仓，看看最近的微软<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>尤其是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>。<strong>切高换底落袋为安，然后去过圣诞...</strong>是很多资金的选择。</p><p><strong>4. 下一个催化剂</strong></p><p>1月CES上老黄的讲话期待不要太高，CES本就是消费电子展。2月底业绩也不用期待了，因为只看Q4 buffer不大。然后就是3月GTC，看看Rubin能展开些什么。但个人觉得<strong>边际“惊喜”不会大于上一次GTC</strong>，那时训练为主、供给侧叙事为主，NVL72的横空出世简直是跨时代的绝杀。现在单纯靠<strong>“供给侧更牛逼”</strong>可能有点难。<strong>那NV更应该期待的是什么呢？</strong></p><p>能挪动3万亿的NV，只能是一个新的“算力叙事”，一个进一步打开算力想象力的叙事，就是Agent或任何super app。这早晚会发生，时间问题。o1开了个头，OpenAI 12连发的最后可能开第二个头，不知道哪里还会冒出其他东西。老黄曾经说过当全世界每个实体都在7*24小时跑推理的时候，AI就真的成功了。如果这算终极目标，那的确算力还有很长的路可以走，NV也是。ASIC or GPU、软件or硬件，只是这个大叙事下的小叙事。<strong>AI已经停不下来了，人类以后也离不开算力了。</strong></p><p>NV咋办呢？短期压力是有的，就是跌到什么价格抄底的问题，欢迎来加入讨论。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1709533022050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达在跌什么</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达在跌什么\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-18 08:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkyMTU4OTE2OA==&mid=2247489853&idx=1&sn=e1c7b0f94de51aa6caf97451f7cff2a0&chksm=c0a1cf2648b2557989b7534a710573eb8020b09772c87aa271c893a3ab3eb985bf90f27a5613&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=1218OfzRZuGSIcb3KNICkxZl&sharer_shareinfo=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345&sharer_shareinfo_first=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345#rd><strong>信息平权</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>1. 供应链先贴一张台湾福邦投顾今天刚出的数字，最新调整后的GB200+GB300下单量，以及更新后的时间表。量就不解释了，大家自行理解。时间表和鸿海最新口径对齐了：GB要到农历新年2月后进入MP大规模量产出货。4个月后GB300小批量，就是我们之前说的，中间给GB200的时间有点短...过去一个多月我们反复提到“存在一堆小问题”，CoWoS-L、发热、铜缆、漏液等等，整体良率的爬升需要更多时间，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkyMTU4OTE2OA==&mid=2247489853&idx=1&sn=e1c7b0f94de51aa6caf97451f7cff2a0&chksm=c0a1cf2648b2557989b7534a710573eb8020b09772c87aa271c893a3ab3eb985bf90f27a5613&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=1218OfzRZuGSIcb3KNICkxZl&sharer_shareinfo=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345&sharer_shareinfo_first=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345#rd\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bd13d142ea44844b91b221ba6d12ed2","relate_stocks":{"LU1935042488.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (USD) INC","NVDS":"1.5倍做空NVDA ETF-Tradr","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4579":"人工智能","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","NVDU":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-Direxion","LU1066051225.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AC\" (USD) ACC","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) 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up缓慢，但大部分压力其实都给了ODM（看看鸿海广达的股价吧...）因为按照Buy&sell模式，英伟达卖了计算板卡给鸿海就确认收入，而最棘手的机柜集成耗得越久，鸿海替NV扛的库存周期就越长...因此NV总归会想方设法出货chip交付合格业绩，但可想而知upside不会太大，何况H那边也有压力...2.叙事对手相比8月那次delay的最大变化是：1)出现一个对手叙事ASIC；2）scaling law叙事变化和推理叙事的加强；3）软件和应用、BTC、Tesla/Waymo，从资金角度都是对手叙事...尤其对于散户来说，选择更多。大部分都消化个七七八八了，除了ASIC叙事和推理叙事，在过去两周互相加强。尤其是Ilya的讲话和Satya的模型“贬值论”，让模型训练叙事向推理偏移，这时候恰逢AVGO博通CEO出来放卫星，ASIC之前就被AWS Tr2炒热的情绪被进一步点燃。继而有人开始质疑英伟达GPU的TCO（总拥有成本）...比如昨天上传的大摩ASIC深度报告，收到最多反馈的就是那张TCO对比图，活活把GPU给“算死了”。细节不展开，重点是这代表了目前市场一种“观点”，就是觉得ASIC还真有戏。今天产业群大佬们讨论最激烈的也是，ASIC到底对于CSP的价值是什么，以及如果未来重点是小模型推理，GB200还有如此大的优势与否。这都是最近非常有代表性的观点。3. 纯粹的垃圾时间就是到年底了，无论散户、ETF还是机构，都在平衡和调仓，看看最近的微软苹果尤其是谷歌。切高换底落袋为安，然后去过圣诞...是很多资金的选择。4. 下一个催化剂1月CES上老黄的讲话期待不要太高，CES本就是消费电子展。2月底业绩也不用期待了，因为只看Q4 buffer不大。然后就是3月GTC，看看Rubin能展开些什么。但个人觉得边际“惊喜”不会大于上一次GTC，那时训练为主、供给侧叙事为主，NVL72的横空出世简直是跨时代的绝杀。现在单纯靠“供给侧更牛逼”可能有点难。那NV更应该期待的是什么呢？能挪动3万亿的NV，只能是一个新的“算力叙事”，一个进一步打开算力想象力的叙事，就是Agent或任何super app。这早晚会发生，时间问题。o1开了个头，OpenAI 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