微软公司：从IAAS到SAAS 业绩超预期的空间有多大？

中金公司2024-11-21

投资建议本篇报告中，我们针对公司在新的业务口径下，对潜在受AI影响较大的AzureAI、M365 Copilot，Windows OEM和搜索在FY25 和FY26 可能产生超预期部分的收入进行不同情景（乐观、基础和悲观）下的营收测算，从而对微软未来的财务空间进行判断。理由基于现有财务模型，我们预计在乐观情况下，FY25 及FY26 公司四款AI相关产品预计可产生约41 亿美元/89 亿美元超预期...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2485910588?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2024-11-21 00:00","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2485910588","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"微软公司：从IAAS到SAAS 业绩超预期的空间有多大？","media":"中金公司","content":"<div>\n<p>投资建议本篇报告中，我们针对公司在新的业务口径下，对潜在受AI影响较大的AzureAI、M365 Copilot，Windows OEM和搜索在FY25 和FY26 可能产生超预期部分的收入进行不同情景（乐观、基础和悲观）下的营收测算，从而对微软未来的财务空间进行判断。理由基于现有财务模型，我们预计在乐观情况下，FY25 及FY26 公司四款AI相关产品预计可产生约41 亿美元/89 亿美元超预期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202411210746239f598db1&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>微软公司：从IAAS到SAAS 业绩超预期的空间有多大？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n微软公司：从IAAS到SAAS 业绩超预期的空间有多大？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-21 00:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202411210746239f598db1&s=b><strong>中金公司</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>投资建议本篇报告中，我们针对公司在新的业务口径下，对潜在受AI影响较大的AzureAI、M365 Copilot，Windows OEM和搜索在FY25 和FY26 可能产生超预期部分的收入进行不同情景（乐观、基础和悲观）下的营收测算，从而对微软未来的财务空间进行判断。理由基于现有财务模型，我们预计在乐观情况下，FY25 及FY26 公司四款AI相关产品预计可产生约41 亿美元/89 亿美元超预期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202411210746239f598db1&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE00BKVL7J92.USD","symbol_name":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202411210746239f598db1&s=b","article_id":"2485910588","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202411210746239f598db1&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2485910588","pubTimestamp":1732118400,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"投资建议本篇报告中，我们针对公司在新的业务口径下，对潜在受AI影响较大的AzureAI、M365 Copilot，Windows OEM和搜索在FY25 和FY26 可能产生超预期部分的收入进行不同情景下的营收测算，从而对微软未来的财务空间进行判断。盈利预测与估值考虑到公司在行业内领先地位，叠加AI布局带来的协同增益，我们持续看好公司不断夯实的核心竞争力。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU2191332357.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF SUSTAINABLE MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (HKDHDG) INC","LU1732800096.USD":"摩根大通环球收益基金A (irc)","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","IE000W1ABFV2.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"R\" (USD) INC","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU2360108059.USD":"BGF CIRCULAR ECONOMY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0345768153.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC MANAGED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0965508806.USD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU1814569148.SGD":"WELLINGTON GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"D\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1084165304.USD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1868836914.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"3\" (USD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1989764748.USD":"东方汇理环球颠覆性机遇A2 Acc","LU0985320562.USD":"NORDEA 1 GLOBAL STARS EQUITY \"BP\" (USD) ACC","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0912757837.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (mth) SGD-H","LU1791710582.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD (SGD/USD hedged)","LU1721428933.USD":"法巴全球经典环境基金RH MD Dis","LU1934455863.HKD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","SAAS":"inContact","LU1815333072.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0965509101.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","MSFT":"微软","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU2092627202.USD":"Blackrock ESG Multi-Asset A8 USD-H","LU2023251221.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1046421795.USD":"富达环球科技A-ACC","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU2404859667.USD":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY FUND \"R\" (USD) ACC","LU2592432038.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1228905540.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL QUALITY DIVIDEND GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC 2","LU1236620834.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE LONG TERM DIVIDEND \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","SGXZ31699556.SGD":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"C\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4538":"云计算","LU1069344957.HKD":"AB SICAV I - AMERICAN GROWTH PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0203202063.USD":"AB SICAV I - ALL MARKET INCOME PORTFOLIO \"A2X\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"Microsoft Corporation: How Much Room Is There to Beat Estimates from IAAS to SAAS?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9,"SAAS":1},"content_text":"投资建议本篇报告中，我们针对公司在新的业务口径下，对潜在受AI影响较大的AzureAI、M365 Copilot，Windows OEM和搜索在FY25 和FY26 可能产生超预期部分的收入进行不同情景（乐观、基础和悲观）下的营收测算，从而对微软未来的财务空间进行判断。理由基于现有财务模型，我们预计在乐观情况下，FY25 及FY26 公司四款AI相关产品预计可产生约41 亿美元/89 亿美元超预期收入。在本篇报告中，我们分别对：1）生产力与商业流程板块中的Microsoft 365 commercial进行情景分析，我们预计该产品在FY25 及FY26 基础、乐观、悲观情景下预计收入体量分别为522.8/586.2 亿美元，531.7/613.5 亿美元和519.0/576.2 亿美元，对应同比增速分别为14.2%/12.1%，16.1%/15.4%和13.4%/11.0%；2）智能云板块中Azure的AI贡献占比进行情景分析，我们预计Azure在FY25 及FY26基础、乐观、悲观情景下预计收入体量分别为750.5/982.4 亿美元，760.9/1007.2 亿美元和743.1/954.8 亿美元， 对应同比增速分别为32.6%/30.9%，34.5%/32.4%和31.3%/28.5%；3）更多个人计算板块中我们分别对Windows OEM及搜索引擎部分的广告收入进行情景分析，我们预计Windows OEM在FY25 及FY26 基础和乐观情景下预计收入体量分别为121.1/126.5 亿美元和122.5/134.9 亿美元，对应同比增速分别为2.6%/4.5%和3.8%/10.1%。我们预计搜索广告在FY25 及FY26 基础和乐观情景下预计收入体量分别为131.3/139.2 亿美元和153.0/175.8 亿美元，对应同比增速分别为6.7%/6.0%和24.3%/14.9%。综上，我们预计在乐观情况下，这四款产品预计在FY25 及FY26 分别共计产生约41 亿美元和89 亿美元的超预期增量收入，对应现有财务模型FY25 及FY26 分别有1.5%和2.8%的营收增量空间。对应到EPS层面，基于现有模型的微软净利润率，微软FY25 及FY26的EPS约为13.6/16.2 美元；乐观假设下微软FY25 及FY26 的EPS约为13.8/16.9 美元；悲观假设下微软FY25 及FY26 的EPS约为13.5/15.8 美元。乐观情况和悲观情况分别对应现有对FY25 和FY26 有1.5%/4.2%的增量提升空间和0.4%/2.5%的下行空间。盈利预测与估值考虑到公司在行业内领先地位，叠加AI布局带来的协同增益，我们持续看好公司不断夯实的核心竞争力。我们维持公司2025/2026 财年营收/净利润基本不变，维持公司跑赢行业评级和目标价490 美元，对应2025/2026 财年36 倍/30 倍市盈率，当前价格对应2025/2026 财年31 倍/25 倍市盈率，具有18%的上行空间。风险模拟预测与实际增量收入存在偏差，AI部署进度不及预期，客户拓展不及预期，全球宏观经济环境不确定性，行业竞争加剧。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.11","shortVersion":"4.35.11","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2485910588","isCrawlerRequest":true}