“中年人的茅台”终于还是输给了“青年新能车”

资事堂2024-10-28

作者 | 佳尔编辑 | 袁畅2004年，当上市刚满三年的茅台，以消费股代表的身份冲入基金重仓“十强”榜单时，它带来的“冲击波”，绝不亚于如今彻底“告别”基金重仓股的“王座”。当年“年轻”的茅台周围活跃着的是重化工业时代的“巨子”们：宝钢、华能、上港、中石化、各家银行....这些个股背后代表的整个出口、基建产业链，是当年的“金花”产业、经济之“骨干”。而年轻的茅台则象征了中国经济的未来——消费。...

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袁畅2004年，当上市刚满三年的茅台，以消费股代表的身份冲入基金重仓“十强”榜单时，它带来的“冲击波”，绝不亚于如今彻底“告别”基金重仓股的“王座”。当年“年轻”的茅台周围活跃着的是重化工业时代的“巨子”们：宝钢、华能、上港、中石化、各家银行....这些个股背后代表的整个出口、基建产业链，是当年的“金花”产业、经济之“骨干”。而年轻的茅台则象征了中国经济的未来——消费。二十年后的2024年三季度，茅台以477亿的基金持股市值和基金重仓股第三名腾讯“鏖战”成一团，远远的被宁德时代拉在了身后时，整个市场的观念已然巨变。以茅台为代表的白酒板块，在许多机构持股组合中，已经成为了稳重的“压舱石”，成为了最佳商业模式的代表，成为了年轻人遥遥相望的奢侈消费。这个时代的“创新接力棒”交给了新能车、AI和光伏。当时过而境迁，投资时代的主题也随同着社会的脉动而改变，基金重仓股排名或许只是这个趋势的一个小小缩影。013.2万股票资产展开布局根据Wind资讯对2024年全部基金3季报的统计，主动权益基金的期末股票仓位相比三个月前有所提高。具体来说，主动权益基金的股票仓位在3季度末超过84.87%，较2季报提高近1.1个百分点。另外，全市场偏股基金的总持股市值逼近了3.2万亿元，其中A股持股市值达到2.84万亿元，均比2024年中有长足进步（见下图）。（主动偏股基金包含即普通股票型、混合型基金，剔除偏债混合型基金和被动指数基金）。02宁德时代“甩开”茅台从持仓市值来看，主动公募基金的第一大重仓股股被宁德时代蝉联，全部基金合计持有宁德时代超过693亿元，大大超过第二名茅台、第三名腾讯。而且，仅从市值估量，基金们在三季度里，“增持”了宁德时代、而“减持”了贵州茅台。由此导致宁德时代的总持股市值大幅“甩开”茅台，后者的基金持有市值不到477亿元，不到宁德时代的七成。再往后看，腾讯控股、立讯精密、美的集团、紫金矿业、五粮液、中际旭创、阳光电源、比亚迪、美团-W、恒瑞医药、新易盛、北方华创、迈瑞医疗、格力电器、泸州老窖、沪电股份、山西汾酒、中国海洋石油也位列主动公募持有市值前20名。其中，阳光电源、比亚迪、格力电器较2季报数据提高了十个以上名次。仔细历数，带有新能源、新能车、新技术（AI、半导体等）的个股已经占到了20强中的10席，如今的基金重仓股早已是“科技”和“创新”占据主流的榜单了。03新能源又被加仓相对2季报持仓总市值数据，在3季度被增持最多的也是宁德时代。其次，是阳光电源。前者是电动车产业链的龙头，后者是光伏行业里的巨子。数据显示，阳光电源在3季度新进入国投瑞银新能源、富国长期成长、富国创新科技、富国创新趋势、国投瑞银产业趋势、易方达中盘成长、易方达科讯、国投瑞银先进制造、海富通改革驱动等个股的重仓股名单，又被华夏能源革新等大幅度增持。此外，主动权益基金也在3季度大幅提高了美的集团、腾讯控股、比亚迪、美团-W、格力电器、中国平安、五粮液、立讯精密等个股的持股市值。04传统能源遭遇减持？于此同时，传统能源的持有情绪开始分歧。在3季度，中国海洋石油虽然还能跻身前20爱股，但是，它也是这个季度公募持股总市值减少最多的个股。一方面，3季度中海油的股价有所调整；另一方面，它也确实遭遇了基金减持。具体来说，富国沪港深业绩驱动、华商甄选回报、富国成长领航、富国均衡优选、嘉实价值精选、嘉实价值长青等基金，在本季度将其“踢出”了重仓股身影。同时，景顺长城价值边际、易方达蓝筹精选、景顺长城沪港深精选等也有大手笔减持。当然，这些动作的背后究竟是被动的市价因素多一些，还是主动的减持因素大一些，外界尚难以估计。05新纳入者有“重磅”3季度，被新纳入重仓股的有重磅个股。首先，由于阿里巴巴纳入港股通，进入很多基金的可投资范围，许多主动公募一下子将其重仓，合计持有市值近134亿元。以张坤管理的易方达蓝筹精选、易方达优质企业三年持有，萧楠管理的易方达高质量严选三年持有、易方达消费精选，李元博管理的富国创新趋势，刘晟管理的中庚价值领航，胡昕炜管理的汇添富价值创造、汇添富消费升级、汇添富消费精选，杨瑨管理的汇添富数字经济引领发展三年等为例，无一不是“第一时间”买入。阿里巴巴近年业绩表现稳定，且回购力度颇大，这点很得机构的“赏识”。如果以主动权益基金3季报合计持有市值计，阿里巴巴大概能排入前25名。百胜中国也是在这个季度进入包括易方达蓝筹精选、东方红启兴三年持有、博时汇悦回报、中欧聚优港股通等多只基金重仓股，合计持有市值超过19亿元。此外，密尔克卫、康华生物、哈药股份、远光软件、平治信息、药石科技、森马服饰、合合信息也在3季度新入主动权益基金重仓股名单。仔细想想，这些名单的背后更体现出创新的“成分”来，包括新技术、新产品、新模式等。这从一个侧面，反映出当下经济的空间和牛股的方向来。本期责任编辑 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