华能国际电力股份(00902)季报点评：煤电盈利修复超预期，1Q24业绩高增

华泰证券04-24

1Q24煤电度电利润总额3.1分，整体归母净利润同比+104.25%1Q24公司中国会计准则下营收/归母净利为653.67/45.96亿元(后续除盈利预测/估值外描述均为A股中国会计准则下数据)，同比+0.15%/+104.25%，其中归母净利润较我们预期的最高值45.76亿元高0.2亿元。1Q24，公司煤电板块实现利润总额28.25亿元，对应度电利润总额3.1分，超出去年单季度盈利最好水平(...

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(00902) quarterly report comment: coal power profit recovery exceeded expectations, 1Q24 performance increased rapidly","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"00902":1},"content_text":"1Q24煤电度电利润总额3.1分，整体归母净利润同比+104.25%1Q24公司中国会计准则下营收/归母净利为653.67/45.96亿元(后续除盈利预测/估值外描述均为A股中国会计准则下数据)，同比+0.15%/+104.25%，其中归母净利润较我们预期的最高值45.76亿元高0.2亿元。1Q24，公司煤电板块实现利润总额28.25亿元，对应度电利润总额3.1分，超出去年单季度盈利最好水平(3Q23煤电度电利润总额2.6分)。下调入炉标煤单价预期，调整公司24-26年归母净利至125/137/157亿元(前值：121/134/157亿元)。预计公司2024年扣除永续债后BPS为4.37元，看好公司新能源业务长期发展和火电业绩持续修复，给予公司1.2x2024EPB，较其历史均值(0.74x)约高2个标准差，目标价5.78港币(前值：5.74港币)。维持“买入”。1Q24煤电上网电量同比+3.05%，煤电/燃机度电利润总额3.1/7.5分1Q24，公司境内完成上网电量1130.36亿千瓦时，同比+5.63%，其中煤电/燃机上网电量分别同比+3.05%/-1.73%至922.67/71.54亿千瓦时；公司境内平均上网电价同比-3.99%至497.97元/MWh，我们认为主要系1)并网平价新能源项目增加拉低平均上网电价；2)供暖季，热电联产机组灵活性调节能力发挥受限，容量电价获取率未达100%；3)煤价中枢下移，煤电电量电价同比或略有下降。但1Q24公司煤电利润总额28.25亿元，接近3Q23的28.43亿元，1Q24煤电度电利润总额为3.1分，高于3Q23的2.6分。得益于天然气价格下行，1Q24公司燃机度电利润总额达7.5分。1Q24并网风电/光伏869.05/736.8MW，风电利润总额同比+25.41%1Q24，公司新增并网风电/光伏装机容量869.05/736.8MW，带动公司风电/光伏上网电量同比增长24.08%/73.73%至100.28/32.22亿千瓦时。公司1Q24实现风电/光伏利润总额24.14/3.7亿元，同比+25.41%/+6.99%，光伏利润总额同比增速远低于上网电量同比增速，我们认为主要系光伏存量项目容量相对较低，新增并网平价项目拉低光伏平均上网电价。1Q24，公司财务费用仍维持下行趋势，同比下降7947万元至20.48亿元；对联营合营企业投资收益同比增长1.5亿元至3.81亿元。风险提示：煤价高于预期；市场化电价/煤电容量电价/利用小时数/风光新项目投产不及预期；计提资产减值风险。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2430963441"}