中国中免(601888)Q1收入下滑毛利改善，机场放量减租贡献增长

招商证券04-24

中国中免发布2024年一季报，公司预计2024年Q1实现收入188亿元/同比下降9.45%，其中营业利润29.1亿元/同比下降7.8%，实现归母净利润23.1亿元/同比增长0.25%，扣非后归母净利23.0亿元/同比增长0.15%。点评：1、高基数下离岛免税回落，机场收入稳步恢复。2024Q1公司实现收入188亿基本符合市场预期，根据海口海关数据测算，其中海南区域收入约为115-120亿，同比下降...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202404241229518b4d3d30&s=b><strong>招商证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>中国中免发布2024年一季报，公司预计2024年Q1实现收入188亿元/同比下降9.45%，其中营业利润29.1亿元/同比下降7.8%，实现归母净利润23.1亿元/同比增长0.25%，扣非后归母净利23.0亿元/同比增长0.15%。点评：1、高基数下离岛免税回落，机场收入稳步恢复。2024Q1公司实现收入188亿基本符合市场预期，根据海口海关数据测算，其中海南区域收入约为115-120亿，同比下降...</p>\n\n<a 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growth","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"601888":1},"content_text":"中国中免发布2024年一季报，公司预计2024年Q1实现收入188亿元/同比下降9.45%，其中营业利润29.1亿元/同比下降7.8%，实现归母净利润23.1亿元/同比增长0.25%，扣非后归母净利23.0亿元/同比增长0.15%。点评：1、高基数下离岛免税回落，机场收入稳步恢复。2024Q1公司实现收入188亿基本符合市场预期，根据海口海关数据测算，其中海南区域收入约为115-120亿，同比下降20%-25%，主要是去年疫情刚放开，游客报复性消费导致海南基数较高。倒算机场渠道实现销售70亿，同比大幅提升30%-35%，受益于线下客流的逐步复苏。2、毛利率环比改善，机场减租改善费用。2024Q1公司主营业务毛利率为33.3%(较业绩预告的32.7%有所提升)，较去年同期增加了4.3个百分点，环比2023Q4增加了1.3个百分点，受益于出入境免税业务的进一步恢复，公司线下业务占比不断回升，商品销售结构持续优化。2024Q1公司的销售费用率为12.8%，同比增长2.9pct，环比下降2.1pct，主要是去年一季度国际客流较少，按协议机场保底租金也少，2023年四季度国际客流回升，机场租金较高；2024年一季度开始北京 上海机场 按照新租金协议，按照线下销售额的25%-30%进行扣点，节约大量租金费用。2024Q1管理费用率为2.5%，同比增长0.4pct；财务费用-1.25亿元，去年同期-3.1亿元，同比增加主要是今年汇兑收益减少。2024Q1公司净利润率为12.3%，同比增加1.2pct，环比增加1.3pct，主要是毛利率改善、节约租金费用以及所得税率下降。3、清明海南离岛免税日均销售0.9亿。今年清明假期3天(4月4日至6日)，海口海关共监管离岛免税销售金额2.71亿元，购物人数4.7万人次，人均消费5767元，由于去年同期清明假期仅有4月5日一天，故数据同比并不可比，但日均销售水平表现平淡。4、投资建议：公司Q1盈利改善，主要是机场减租带来费用优化，以及公司通过供应链平衡各子公司成本利润带来的所得税下降，短期公司股价回调还是海南逐步进入淡季，销售环比走弱。展望后续，海南离岛免税基数逐渐走低，叠加五一旺季三亚客流增长，海南免税销售有望逐步改善；机场端随着国际航班的快速增加，机场国际客流提升将带来线下销售的增长和费用摊薄，机场降租将大幅增厚利润；此外国际客流恢复到一定程度，市内店政策也有望推出，建议持续关注。预计公司2024/2025年归母净利润78.7/92.1亿元，对应PE估值为19x/16x。风险提示：疫情反复，国内外客流持续低迷；宏观经济增速下滑；海南免税市场竞争加剧风险；政策释放不及预期风险。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; 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