李宁(2331.HK)：线上增长超预期同店仍有待恢复

华西证券04-24

事件概述公司公告2024Q1 运营数据：全渠道流水低单位数增长，其中线下/线上分别为低单位数下降/20-30%低段增长，零售/批发分别为中单位数增长/中单位数下降，即加盟商仍处于去库存中。分析判断:同店恢复乏力。高基数给同店恢复带来压力（1）从开店数来看，24Q1 李宁（不含李宁YOUNG）品牌门店数量较年初净减少26 家至6214 家，同比增长0.13%，其中零售/批发较年初净增加1/-27 ...

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HK): Online growth exceeds expectations, same-store still needs to recover","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"82331":0.9,"02331":1,"LNNGY":0.6},"content_text":"事件概述公司公告2024Q1 运营数据：全渠道流水低单位数增长，其中线下/线上分别为低单位数下降/20-30%低段增长，零售/批发分别为中单位数增长/中单位数下降，即加盟商仍处于去库存中。分析判断:同店恢复乏力。高基数给同店恢复带来压力（1）从开店数来看，24Q1 李宁（不含李宁YOUNG）品牌门店数量较年初净减少26 家至6214 家，同比增长0.13%，其中零售/批发较年初净增加1/-27 家至1499/4715 家，门店数同比增长3.38%/-0.86%。24Q1李宁YOUNG 品牌门店数量较年初净减少23 家至1405 家，门店同比下降1.61%。（2）整体同店中单位数下降，其中零售渠道/批发渠道下降低单位数/10-20%中段，直营好于批发仍由于奥莱贡献，整体下滑主要受客流下降影响。电商同比20-30%低段增长。折扣和库存有所改善。我们估计，折扣和库存均有所改善，但折扣距离正常水平仍有差距。投资建议我们分析，（1）我们预计24 年收入增长中单位数：预计主品牌直营和加盟净关店，仅童装和1990 保持净开店，但预计加盟发货有望改善，且预计24 年电商渠道逐渐恢复。产品方面，未来韦德11 发布后有望贡献收入。（2）预计24 年净利率保持低双位数：目前24Q1 折扣有所改善；23 年计提减值损失后，24年有较大利润弹性，长期来看扣非净利率仍有提升空间。（3）长期来看，童装有望成为新的增长点，1990 仍在培育期，根据新浪财经援引投资交流者纪要，中国李宁进入渠道调整阶段、未来主要关注店效提升，公司将聚焦打造主品牌专业运动属性，23 年专业运动占比过半。维持此前盈利预测，预计24/25/26 年营业收入预测为 292/325/364 亿元， 24/25/26 年归母净利预测为35.7/42.3 亿/50.2 亿元， 对应24/25/26 年EPS 预测1.38/1.63/1.94 元，2024 年4 月23 日收盘价17.5 港元对应24/25/26 年PE 为11/10/9 倍（1 港元=0.92 元人民币），维持“买入”评级。风险提示时尚运动流行趋势变化风险、库存积压恶化风险、终端折扣加大风险、电商增速放缓、系统性风险。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2429124587"}

李宁(2331.HK)：线上增长超预期 同店仍有待恢复

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李宁(2331.HK)：线上增长超预期同店仍有待恢复