光大证券：预期24年半导体行业处于缓慢复苏阶段看好AI需求持续强劲

智通财经04-19

智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研究报告称，4月17及18日，ASML和台积电分别发布截至3月31日的24Q1业绩。半导体公司业绩出现分化，ASML业绩同半导体周期紧密相关而表现不佳，台积电则受益于AI需求的结构性拉动而业绩向好。该行表示，整体半导体行业复苏缓慢，AI强劲需求带来结构性分化，预期24年半导体行业处于低迷中缓慢复苏的阶段。看好AI需求持续强劲，建议关注AI算力产业链。光大证券观点如下...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202404191624318b3a25f9&s=b><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研究报告称，4月17及18日，ASML和台积电分别发布截至3月31日的24Q1业绩。半导体公司业绩出现分化，ASML业绩同半导体周期紧密相关而表现不佳，台积电则受益于AI需求的结构性拉动而业绩向好。该行表示，整体半导体行业复苏缓慢，AI强劲需求带来结构性分化，预期24年半导体行业处于低迷中缓慢复苏的阶段。看好AI需求持续强劲，建议关注AI算力产业链。光大证券观点如下...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202404191624318b3a25f9&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0097036916.USD","symbol_name":"贝莱德美国增长A2 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strong","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"03165":0.6,"03145":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研究报告称，4月17及18日，ASML和台积电分别发布截至3月31日的24Q1业绩。半导体公司业绩出现分化，ASML业绩同半导体周期紧密相关而表现不佳，台积电则受益于AI需求的结构性拉动而业绩向好。该行表示，整体半导体行业复苏缓慢，AI强劲需求带来结构性分化，预期24年半导体行业处于低迷中缓慢复苏的阶段。看好AI需求持续强劲，建议关注AI算力产业链。光大证券观点如下：ASML 24Q1营收同比下滑，海外客户光刻机需求放缓。ASML 24Q1营收52.9亿欧元，YoY-22%，QoQ-27%，位于此前公司50-55亿欧元指引区间的中值，低于市场预期的54.7亿欧元。其中系统业务营收40亿欧元，YoY-26%;装机管理业务营收13亿欧元，YoY-6%。系统业务营收下降，主要因非中国区客户对光刻机的拉货节奏放缓，24Q1出货全新光刻机66台，QoQ-42%。24Q1中国区销售额19亿欧元，QoQ-14%，环比下滑系荷兰政府出口管制，但中国区营收占比QoQ+10pct至49%，系其他地区光刻机拉货节奏放缓。24Q1盈利超预期。24Q1毛利润27亿欧元，YoY-21%，QoQ-27%;毛利率51%，QoQ-0.4pct，高于市场预期的48.8%，系光刻机产品组合改善。净利润12.2亿欧元，YoY-37%，QoQ-40%，较市场预期高逾14%，对应EPS 3.11欧元。ASML保守预期24年半导体行业需求，看好25年开启强劲增长。24Q1新增订单36亿欧元，QoQ-61%，逊于市场预期的50亿欧元。24Q2，公司营收指引区间57-62亿欧元，中值较市场预期64.6亿欧元低逾8%;指引Q2毛利率在50%-51%。ASML将2024年定位成“过渡年”，预期半导体行业从低迷中逐步复苏，公司预估24年营收同23年持平，24H2业绩优于24H1;25年半导体行业需求出现强劲增长，进而带动公司业绩表现。台积电24Q1业绩超预期，受益于AI算力的强劲需求。台积电24Q1营收5926亿台币(约183亿美元)，YoY+17%，QoQ-5%，较市场预期高逾1.6%;营收同比增长系23年低基数叠加AI强劲需求，环比下降系智能手机的季节性影响。24Q1期间，3nm/5nm/7nm的营收贡献占比分别为9%/37%/19%，先进制程合计占比65%。24Q1盈利超预期，实现毛利率53.1%，QoQ+0.1 pct，优于市场预期的53%，系智能手机产品组合季节性调整;实现净利润2255亿台币，YoY+9%，QoQ-6%，较市场预期高逾5%，对应EPS 8.7台币。24Q2营收指引超预期。24Q2营收指引区间196-204亿美元，中值对应YoY+28%，QoQ+6%，高于市场预期的191亿美元;指引毛利率51%-53%，基本符合市场预期，毛利率环比下滑系3nm折旧增加、台湾地区地震和电力成本提升。台积电下调24年整体半导体行业增速至10%，AI成重要业绩驱动力。台积电担忧宏观经济和地缘政治的不确定性打压消费者信心和终端市场需求，预计24年半导体行业复苏节奏更加温和渐进，因此下调24年半导体(不含存储)和晶圆代工行业市场规模的同比增速至10%和15%。拆分半导体各细分领域，台积电预计手机市场逐步复苏，PC复苏偏慢，传统CPU服务器需求不温不火，汽车库存持续调整，而AI相关的数据中心需求强劲。AI强劲需求下，台积电24年总营收有望同比增长20%。虽然半导体复苏进展不及预期，台积电凭借其先进制程和先进封装收获AI算力红利，台积电预计24年AI处理器相关营收较23年翻倍，营收贡献有望提升至13%;公司预计未来5年AI相关业务营收将以50%的复合年均增长率高速增长，28年营收贡献有望提升至20%+。投资建议：整体半导体行业复苏缓慢，AI强劲需求带来结构性分化。该行预期24年半导体行业处于低迷中缓慢复苏的阶段。半导体公司业绩出现分化，ASML业绩同半导体周期紧密相关而表现不佳，台积电则受益于AI需求的结构性拉动而业绩向好。该行看好AI需求持续强劲，建议关注AI算力产业链。风险提示：消费电子市场需求复苏不及预期;AI商业化进展不及预期;CoWoS产能扩建进度不及预期;国内外政策风险;美国半导体制裁升级。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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光大证券：预期24年半导体行业处于缓慢复苏阶段 看好AI需求持续强劲

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光大证券：预期24年半导体行业处于缓慢复苏阶段看好AI需求持续强劲