增长前景受限，好市多该如何破局？

美股研究社04-19

作者 | Stuart Allsopp编译 | 华尔街大事件好市多（NASDAQ：COST）目前的市盈率略高于2000年泡沫峰值，市盈率为45倍，市盈率为51倍。考虑到该公司的利润率正处于历史新高，这些利润倍数就更值得注意了。按市销率计算，该股的估值比2000年峰值高出60%。下图显示了标准普尔500指数巨型股（定义为市值超过2000亿美元的股票）的估值倍数。该倍数基于远期市盈率和远期价格与自由...

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华尔街大事件好市多（NASDAQ：COST）目前的市盈率略高于2000年泡沫峰值，市盈率为45倍，市盈率为51倍。考虑到该公司的利润率正处于历史新高，这些利润倍数就更值得注意了。按市销率计算，该股的估值比2000年峰值高出60%。下图显示了标准普尔500指数巨型股（定义为市值超过2000亿美元的股票）的估值倍数。该倍数基于远期市盈率和远期价格与自由...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-04-19/doc-inaskmin7171049.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0417517546.SGD","symbol_name":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-04-19/doc-inaskmin7171049.shtml","article_id":"2428093658","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"sina","url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-04-19/doc-inaskmin7171049.shtml","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}.art_tit_h1{#titleStyle#}a{#lv2TextColor#}.art_time, .art_cite{#sourceStyle#;} .art_cite{margin-left: 3px;}","selectors":".module-article, article","filters":"header, .voice2, .tags, 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华尔街大事件好市多（NASDAQ：COST）目前的市盈率略高于2000年泡沫峰值，市盈率为45倍，市盈率为51倍。考虑到该公司的利润率正处于历史新高，这些利润倍数就更值得注意了。按市销率计算，该股的估值比2000年峰值高出60%。下图显示了标准普尔500指数巨型股（定义为市值超过2000亿美元的股票）的估值倍数。该倍数基于远期市盈率和远期价格与自由现金流比率的平均值，不包括基于股票的薪酬。在此基础上，好市多成为第三昂贵的股票，仅次于特斯拉、礼来。由于行业增长率、利润率和风险状况不同，比较不同行业的公司估值很困难，增长前景较弱，大公司往往会以折扣估值进行交易。如下图所示，一些蓝色的巨型科技股由于其龙头地位目前逆势而上。然而，好市多也牢牢处于该图表中估值过高的部分。事实上，只有特斯拉和亚马逊的历史市盈率和历史名义收益之和较高。人们可能会认为，投资者必须预期强劲的销售和盈利增长才能证明好市多的估值合理，但华尔街分析师预计该公司未来12个月的收入增长仅为7%，盈利增长为9%。如下图所示，好市多的价格极其昂贵，但与同行相比增长速度却明显缓慢。唯一其他预期市盈率较高的股票是特斯拉和礼来公司，预计明年盈利将分别增长33%和45%。吸引投资者兴趣的一项积极动态是利润率的上升，近年来利润率持续上升，达到2.8%的历史新高。然而，利润率的增长似乎是规模经济的结果，随着公司的扩张，相对固定的销售、一般和管理费用占收入的比例有所下降。自2020年以来，EBITDA利润率实际上一直在下降，这意味着净利润增长的大部分归因于非营业费用相对于销售成本的下降。此外，自疫情爆发前以来，毛利率实际上已经大幅下降，因为该公司的扩张是以牺牲利润为代价的。这些因素强烈表明，好市多的净利润率将难以继续上升，甚至可能已经达到顶峰。贴现现金流量分析显示好市多的公允价值不到当前水平的一半。我假设未来10年收入和自由现金流每年增长9%，然后放缓至GDP增长率4%左右。下表显示了根据所需回报率的相应公允价值估计。根据美国股票的长期回报率计算10%的要求回报率，好市多的公允价值将比当前水平低67%。即使要求回报率为8.5%，该股票仍被高估100%。这些预测还假设公司的所有自由现金流都以股息和回购的形式返还给股东。好市多的市盈率现在高于2000年泡沫顶峰，而其市销率也明显更高。市盈率达到50倍的股票往往具有垄断特征和强劲的增长前景，但好市多似乎两者都不具备，这使其成为美国大型股票中的异类。由于毛利率面临激烈竞争带来的下行压力，利润率的上升不太可能持续，即使假设未来几年利润增长超过行业，该股的公允价值也至少比当前水平低50%。\n\n股市回暖，抄底炒股先开户！智能定投、条件单、个股雷达……送给你>>\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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