摩根大通的大跌是个特例，还是信号？

巴伦周刊04-15

摩根大通并不是唯一一家净利息收入报告不理想的银行。有时候，就连摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)的日子都不太好过。这可不太常见。摩根大通是世界上最大的银行，以其“堡垒般的资产负债表”而闻名，几乎没有卖方分析师给予其悲观评级。而且，它还拥有最知名、最健谈的银行老板——杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)。然而，该公司股价在上周五（4月12日）下跌了近6.5% ，创下近四年来最糟糕的...

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Dimon)。 \n然而，该公司股价在上周五（4月12日）下跌了近6.5% ，创下近四年来最糟糕的单日表现。虽然更大图景的数据还不错，摩根大通第一季度收益超过预期，营收增长与华尔街分析师的预期一致，然而，该行报告净利息收入(NII)下降，其890亿美元(增加10亿美元)的业绩指引低于预期。 \n\n\n\n摩根大通并不是唯一一家净利息收入报告不理想的银行。富国银行(Wells Fargo)和花旗集团(Citigroup)的指标也低于一些分析师的预测，但它们的股价跌幅远低于摩根大通。\n此前，摩根大通将提高其净利息收入指引，并从许多经济学家所认为的长期利率上升中获益的市场预期非常高。正如富国银行(Wells Fargo)分析师迈克·梅奥(Mike Mayo)指出，这也是该行在本轮利率周期中首次出现季度环比下降的情况。 \n但其实并没有发生什么天翻地覆的改变。摩根大通的资产负债表仍然强劲，其在美国银行业的主导地位没有改变。“摩根大通是否面临经营压力或者系统性风险？没有。”CFRA Research 股票研究主管肯尼思·利昂(Kenneth Leon)表示。\n财务失败\n美国各大银行的财报季开始于一片哀嚎之中 \n\n\n\n那么为什么摩根大通的股价跌幅要比富国或花旗更大？对于这个问题，没有什么太好的答案，除了通常的情况: 尽管这份报告发布，但该股已经从市场10月份的低点上涨了44% ，轻松超过了标普500指数26% 的涨幅。“我认为这是获利回吐,”里昂表示。 \n也可能是因为戴蒙。他近期谈到了美国经济的优缺点，他提到了持续的通货膨胀、低失业率、不断上涨的房价、低收入消费者的疲软以及信用卡贷款的增长，这些因素被“高收入人群的强劲增长所抵消... ... 如果你进入衰退，他们的状况会相当不错,”戴蒙说。\nMerion Capital Group 首席市场策略师理查德·法尔（Richard Farr）表示，将所有这些因素推断到银行体系和经济的其他部分，应该会让投资者保持谨慎。“摩根大通的评论... ... 只会进一步强化我们对股市位置的看法”，他写道: “随着宏观力量不断恶化，我们仍然在做空消费者和银行业。” \n不过，也不全是坏消息。花旗股价下跌1.7% ，随着公司继续重塑自身形象，其支出低于预期，费用收入增加，轻松超出预期。富国银行股价仅下跌0.4% ，尽管没有明确表示监管机构计划何时解除对该行增长的限制。一个可能的原因是: 银行对不良贷款的冲销下降了，CFRA 将其股票评级从“持有”上调为“买入”。 \n美国第二大银行美国银行(Bank of America)将于4月16日公布业绩。巴克莱(Barclays)分析师贾森·戈德伯格(Jason Goldberg)表示，美国银行交易、投资银行和经纪业务的手续费收入应该会增加。但与其大型银行竞争对手一样，分析师们预计其净利息收入将有所下降。该公司的财报可能能够证实，银行业是否存在更大的问题，或者只是因为今天运气不佳。\n文｜丽贝卡·恩加里诺\n编辑｜喻舟\n版权声明：\n《巴伦周刊》(barronschina)原创文章，未经许可，不得转载。英文版见2024年4月12日报道“JPMorgan Stock Was Down After Earnings. What It Says About Banks and the Economy.”。\n（本文内容仅供参考，不构成任何形式的投资和金融建议；市场有风险，投资须谨慎。）","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2427005968"}