中银香港(02388)︰美联储今年降息仍是大方向 4月及5月是观察期

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智通财经APP获悉，中银香港(02388)个人数字金融产品部财富策略及分析处主管张诗琪表示，市场正注视星期三美国将公布的通胀数据，目前市场预期核心CPI升幅将回落至3.7%，而在指数中占比近3成的住房成本持续回落。预计即使通胀反复，但仍是逐步朝向央行目标水平，因此年内减息仍是大方向。若核心CPI未有如市场预期般回落，相信又会让市场预期减息的时点延后，或为投资市场带来波动。但距离6月议息尚有两组通胀...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1100473.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，中银香港(02388)个人数字金融产品部财富策略及分析处主管张诗琪表示，市场正注视星期三美国将公布的通胀数据，目前市场预期核心CPI升幅将回落至3.7%，而在指数中占比近3成的住房成本持续回落。预计即使通胀反复，但仍是逐步朝向央行目标水平，因此年内减息仍是大方向。若核心CPI未有如市场预期般回落，相信又会让市场预期减息的时点延后，或为投资市场带来波动。但距离6月议息尚有两组通胀...</p>\n\n<a 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period","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"82388":0.6,"02388":1,"SPY":1,"UPRO":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"03143":0.6,"BHKLY":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，中银香港(02388)个人数字金融产品部财富策略及分析处主管张诗琪表示，市场正注视星期三美国将公布的通胀数据，目前市场预期核心CPI升幅将回落至3.7%，而在指数中占比近3成的住房成本持续回落。预计即使通胀反复，但仍是逐步朝向央行目标水平，因此年内减息仍是大方向。若核心CPI未有如市场预期般回落，相信又会让市场预期减息的时点延后，或为投资市场带来波动。但距离6月议息尚有两组通胀数据公布，4月及5月可称得上是美联储的观察期，期间的波动性不容忽视。然而张诗琪认为，在经济温和增长加上通胀逐步回落，当美联储开始减息，预期资产价格将得到支持，故此观察期的波动性能为投资者带来入市机会。只是在难以判断美联储真正减息时点前，投资者在投资组合上，应增加一些能对冲高利率的投资工具，包括短期企业债券以及高息股等收益工具，以减轻等待迟来的减息对资产价格的影响。对于今年美国能否开始减息，市场之所以觉得减息愈来愈远，张诗琪认为主要有两个因素。第一，不同的美联储官员正管理市场对减息开始的预期。近日美联储不同官员重申减息时点取决于遏抑通胀的进展，从其言词中可见，较多官员对未来通胀走势具防范，表示希望见到更多通胀下行的数据才开始减息。甚至有官员表达出如果遏抑通胀的进展停滞不前，特别是如果经济保持强劲，那么今年可能不需要减息。当然最重要的还是美联储主席提及等待看到更清晰的通胀下行迹象后才减息。第二，美国数据显示就业市场仍然存在韧性。美国3月非农新增职位达到30.3万份，创下近一年最高，表现超出预期，至于失业率则小幅下降至3.8%。受到这两个因素影响，利率期货显示市场现时对6月减息机会的预期已下跌至50%附近，而7月减息的机会亦下跌至80%，同时预期全年的减幅小过3月时利率点阵图预测的0.75%。这意味着市场对于美联储今年每次以0.25%减息3次，已经没有百分百的信心。减息好像愈来愈远，但张诗琪认为年内减息仍是大方向，只是时点上需要非常小心。从经济增长层面看，美国不论制造业及服务业指数均处于扩张水平。另外，具前瞻性的美国经济咨询委员会领先指数自2022年以来首次回到正增长，反映市场对经济乐观。若美联储太早减息，不排除会令企业增加投资而令通胀有所反弹。张诗琪表示，投资者可想像，若美联储对通胀下行趋势未有太大把握时便开始减息，一旦通胀真的反弹，美联储甚至需要重新加息以作控制。这个情况相信对投资市场带来的波动性将更大，因此，这为何能解释美联储对开启减息之门那么谨慎。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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