预计美联储降息随后将至？高盛、美国运通两巨头率先“降息”

华尔街见闻04-10

高盛、美国运通两巨头下调“高收益”储蓄账户利率。分析称，明显鸽派趋势突然席卷美国银行业。两巨头降息，也许是因为他们意识到很快其他所有人都会因为一个简单的原因而做同样的事情：美联储将打响宽松周期的发令枪。当前市场对美联储今年降息的预期越来越悲观。上周五美国超预期的非农就业数据公布后，市场预计6月开始降息的可能性越来越小，甚至认为首次降息可能要等到9月。然而，从华尔街两大巨头——高盛和美国运通的操作...

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Goldman Sachs and American Express took the lead in \"cutting interest rates\"","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d15be62e122f841a6bb8906c2f28f176","symbols_score_info":{"AXP":1.1,"GS":1.1},"content_text":"高盛、美国运通两巨头下调“高收益”储蓄账户利率。分析称，明显鸽派趋势突然席卷美国银行业。两巨头降息，也许是因为他们意识到很快其他所有人都会因为一个简单的原因而做同样的事情：美联储将打响宽松周期的发令枪。当前市场对美联储今年降息的预期越来越悲观。上周五美国超预期的非农就业数据公布后，市场预计6月开始降息的可能性越来越小，甚至认为首次降息可能要等到9月。然而，从华尔街两大巨头——高盛和美国运通的操作来看，也许市场的预期悲观过头了。上周三，高盛旗下消费银行Marcus三年多来首次降低了其高收益储蓄账户的利率，将该银行旗舰产品的年利率下调至4.4%，低于3月份时的4.5%。这是自2020年11月高盛将旗下产品的利率从0.6%下调至0.5%以来的首次降低。当被媒体要求解释降息原因时，高盛发言人在一封电子邮件中表示：“我们目前的利率使我们高于大多数同行。我们将继续专注于为客户提供价值，并发展我们的Marcus存款业务，这是公司的首要任务。”对于高盛的上述意外“降息”，分析指出，只有在降低高收益储蓄账户的利率而不会导致存款外流的情况下，才能保持存款业务的增长。这意味着，高盛知道其它同行也将追随美联储的脚步而降息时，这种情况才会发生。这一步骤通常发生在他们确信美联储将降息或紧随美联储决策的时候。无独有偶。本周，另一家金融巨头美国运通也做了同样的事情，从4月9日周二开始，将其高收益储蓄账户的利率从4.35%下调至4.30%。美国运通同样指出，该利率远高于美国全国的平均水平，可以使储户享有更高的收益。 财经金融博客Zerohedge点评称，出于“不明原因”，明显鸽派趋势突然席卷美国银行业。或者也许两巨头的降息并不是出于“未知的原因”，也许是因为他们意识到之所以可以开始降低旗下产品的利率，是因为很快其他所有人都会因为一个简单的原因而做同样的事情：美联储将打响宽松周期的发令枪。媒体分析指出，此举表明金融机构对何时可以降低个人存款利率保持警觉。事实上，游戏中最大的参与者中的两个、而不仅仅一个已经这样做了，这应该足以让市场重新审视对美联储的降息计划预期。需要说明的是，尽管当前市场的降息预期崩了，但高盛、花旗等华尔街大行仍继续预期美联储会在6月首次降息。不过，巨头们的分歧显然也很大。就在本周，摩根大通首席执行官Jamie Dimon警告市场，由于美国政府的支出过高，美国的通胀和利率可能持续高于市场预期，已为美联储最高将利率上调至8%做好了准备。Dimon还预计，美国经济实现软着陆的可能性不高。近期的地缘政治事件正酝酿着自二战以来最大的风险。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2426212750"}