原油或升至每桶近100美元但多机制调节下小摩选择维持其油价预测不变

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智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通的分析师在周三发布的研究报告中写道，俄罗斯深化其石油减产的决定可能会在9月前将全球基准原油价格推升至每桶近100美元，但需求破坏可能在抑制价格前景方面发挥作用。3月3日，欧佩克+的几个成员国延长了每日220万桶的额外自愿减产，以支持石油市场的稳定和平衡。然而，俄罗斯却出人意料地表示，它将在今年第二季度前自愿削减每天47.1万桶的原油产量和出口量。这是在俄罗斯此前于...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1094241.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通的分析师在周三发布的研究报告中写道，俄罗斯深化其石油减产的决定可能会在9月前将全球基准原油价格推升至每桶近100美元，但需求破坏可能在抑制价格前景方面发挥作用。3月3日，欧佩克+的几个成员国延长了每日220万桶的额外自愿减产，以支持石油市场的稳定和平衡。然而，俄罗斯却出人意料地表示，它将在今年第二季度前自愿削减每天47.1万桶的原油产量和出口量。这是在俄罗斯此前于...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1094241.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1261432733.SGD","symbol_name":"Fidelity World 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Kaneva为首的摩根大通分析师写道：“俄罗斯石油战略的转变令人惊讶。表面上看，假设没有政策、供应或需求反应，俄罗斯的行动可能会在4月就将布伦特原油价格推升至90美元，到5月达到90美元中期，到9月接近100美元。”分析师们补充道：“欧佩克+现在更有可能在6月延长其石油产量削减至年底，这或将进一步催化油价的上涨。”FactSet数据显示，布伦特原油今年至今的交易价格上涨了近12%。然而，摩根大通的分析师指出，有多种手段可以相当有效地缓解高价格的影响。短期内最明显的再平衡机制是减少美国战略石油储备(SPR)原油库存。他们指出，油价上涨将使美国政府在11月总统大选前继续承受压力，美国汽油价格可能在5月前攀升至每加仑4美元，摩根大通分析师称这将是2022年夏季以来的最高价。在拜登政府于2022年创纪录地缩减石油储量并努力补充之后，SPR仍然拥有充足的原油来保护美国的国家战略需求，并为价格上涨提供缓冲。他们估计，美国政府拥有释放多达6000万桶原油的政策空间。摩根大通的分析师表示，除了SPR之外，破坏需求也是应对高油价的另一个潜在的有力对策。他们指出，鉴于美元走强和借贷成本高企，油价大幅超过90美元会对全球石油需求造成严重干扰，这反过来又会导致油价下跌。分析师们说，有初步迹象表明，消费者可能已经在减少燃油消耗。美国司机的每周出行情况显示，自1月底以来，3至100英里的出行次数一直在减少，这与美国汽油价格开始上涨的时期相吻合。鉴于多种应对措施可作为高油价的适当再平衡机制，摩根大通选择维持其油价预测不变。该行预测2024年布伦特原油的平均价格为每桶83美元，今年第三季度和第四季度的平均价格分别为84美元和85美元。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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原油或升至每桶近100美元 但多机制调节下小摩选择维持其油价预测不变

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原油或升至每桶近100美元但多机制调节下小摩选择维持其油价预测不变