青岛啤酒(600600)还原年金计提后23Q4符合预期，升级韧性兑现

兴业证券03-28

投资要点事件：青岛啤酒公布2023年年报，2023年实现营收339.37亿元，同比+5.49%，归母净利润42.68亿元，同比+15.02%；其中23Q4实现营收29.58亿元，同比-3.37%，归母净利润-6.40亿元，上年同期为-5.56亿元。主品牌升级韧性兑现，核心市场稳健增长2023全年啤酒业务收入同比+5.39%(销量800.7万吨/同比-0.81%，吨价4172.07元/吨/同比+...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2422183916?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2024-03-28 10:17","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2422183916","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"青岛啤酒(600600)还原年金计提后23Q4符合预期，升级韧性兑现","media":"兴业证券","content":"<div>\n<p>投资要点事件： 青岛啤酒 公布2023年年报，2023年实现营收339.37亿元，同比+5.49%，归母净利润42.68亿元，同比+15.02%；其中23Q4实现营收29.58亿元，同比-3.37%，归母净利润-6.40亿元，上年同期为-5.56亿元。主品牌升级韧性兑现，核心市场稳健增长2023全年啤酒业务收入同比+5.39%(销量800.7万吨/同比-0.81%，吨价4172.07元/吨/同比+...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024032811454887beae8d&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>青岛啤酒(600600)还原年金计提后23Q4符合预期，升级韧性兑现</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n青岛啤酒(600600)还原年金计提后23Q4符合预期，升级韧性兑现\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-28 10:17 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024032811454887beae8d&s=b><strong>兴业证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>投资要点事件： 青岛啤酒 公布2023年年报，2023年实现营收339.37亿元，同比+5.49%，归母净利润42.68亿元，同比+15.02%；其中23Q4实现营收29.58亿元，同比-3.37%，归母净利润-6.40亿元，上年同期为-5.56亿元。主品牌升级韧性兑现，核心市场稳健增长2023全年啤酒业务收入同比+5.39%(销量800.7万吨/同比-0.81%，吨价4172.07元/吨/同比+...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024032811454887beae8d&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK0196","symbol_name":"行业龙头","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024032811454887beae8d&s=b","article_id":"2422183916","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024032811454887beae8d&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2422183916","pubTimestamp":1711592259,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"23Q4受计提企业年金影响净亏损6.40亿元，若还原一次性计提费用影响，23Q4利润节奏仍符合预期，2023全年净利率同比+0.99pct至12.81%。盈利预测与投资建议：还原一次性年金计提后23Q4业绩符合预期，青啤净利率水平从2018年的5.87%提升至2023年的12.81%，基于对中档经典系能持续增长的预判，净利率仍处于上升通道，业绩高确定性。中期维度青啤属于攻守兼备的优质标的，升级韧性、股息率提升是抓手。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"600600":"青岛啤酒","BK0196":"行业龙头","BK0012":"证金概念","BK0215":"饮品","BK0188":"融资融券","BK0028":"国家队","BK0183":"MSCI概念"},"translate_title":"Tsingtao Brewery (600600) restored 23Q4 to meet expectations after the annuity was accrued, and the upgrade resilience was fulfilled","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600600":0.9},"content_text":"投资要点事件： 青岛啤酒 公布2023年年报，2023年实现营收339.37亿元，同比+5.49%，归母净利润42.68亿元，同比+15.02%；其中23Q4实现营收29.58亿元，同比-3.37%，归母净利润-6.40亿元，上年同期为-5.56亿元。主品牌升级韧性兑现，核心市场稳健增长2023全年啤酒业务收入同比+5.39%(销量800.7万吨/同比-0.81%，吨价4172.07元/吨/同比+6.25%)，其中23Q1/23Q2/23Q3/23Q4销量分别同比+10.99%/+2.66%/-11.25%/-10.09%，销量经历前高后低，全年整体来看仍相对稳健。分品牌来看，2023年主品牌/主品牌中高端以上/崂山等区域品牌分别同比+2.70%/+10.50%/-5.09%，主品牌占比提升1.95pct至56.95%，预计全年白啤高增、经典稳增、纯生势能仍偏弱；分区域来看，山东、华北大本营市场优势地位持续强化，大北方连片发展势能延续，年末经销商数量净减少469个至11357个。还原一次性年金计提，23Q4利润符合预期2023全年吨价同比+6.25%/吨成本同比+3.34%，带动毛利率同比提升1.81pct至38.66%，主要系主品牌中高档占比大幅提升所致、成本节奏相对可控。2023全年销售费用率同比+0.82pct至13.87%，管理费用率同比-0.10pct至4.48%，其中23Q4销售费用率同比+9.55pct至41.42%，管理费用率同比+4.19pct至16.73%，四季度费用明显提升主要系：1)22Q4期间费用投放低基数；2)一次性计提企业年金等影响。此外23Q4其他收益相对平稳、资产处置收益有所增加。23Q4受计提企业年金影响净亏损6.40亿元，若还原一次性计提费用影响，23Q4利润节奏仍符合预期，2023全年净利率同比+0.99pct至12.81%。攻守兼备的优质主线，分红率提升已然兑现借鉴海外啤酒巨头的发展路径，我们认为中国啤酒龙头是攻守兼备的优质主线，进攻层面来自升级的韧性及持续性，区域餐饮大众价位是中档放量核心支撑；防御层面来自中国啤酒龙头处于资本开支相对稳健、现金流表现优秀的阶段，未来股息率的明显提升值得期待。最新2023年年度分红率在64%，而此前2022年年度分红率在48%(此外特别分红率为18%，2022年累计分红率为66%)，年度分红率提升已然兑现。盈利预测与投资建议：还原一次性年金计提后23Q4业绩符合预期，青啤净利率水平从2018年的5.87%提升至2023年的12.81%，基于对中档经典系能持续增长的预判，净利率仍处于上升通道，业绩高确定性。中期维度青啤属于攻守兼备的优质标的，升级韧性、股息率提升是抓手。根据最新公告调整盈利预测，预计2024-2026年营收分别为354.58/377.05/399.51亿元，归母净利润分别为50.90/59.00/67.63亿元，EPS分别为3.73/4.32/4.96元，对应2024/3/27收盘价，PE分别为22.4/19.4/16.9X，维持“增持”评级。风险提示：宏观经济不及预期；高端升级不及预期；非基地市场竞争加剧。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2422183916"}