名创优品(09896)盈利能力再创新高，看好海外迈入全面加速期

国元证券(香港)03-27

投资要点名创优品公布2023/12/31季度业绩，盈利能力再创新高，指引乐观：CY23Q4营收同比+54%至38.4亿元(国内+56%，海外+52%)，毛利率同比+3.2pp至43.1%至单季新高，除汇兑外的经调整净利润率达新高(17.4%)，经调整NPM同比+2.5pp至17.2%。经调整归母净利润同比+80%至6.6亿。24年指引为收入同增20-30%(较20-25%的原指引上调)，利润好于...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2422072746?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2024-03-27 09:18","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2422072746","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"名创优品(09896)盈利能力再创新高，看好海外迈入全面加速期","media":"国元证券(香港)","content":"<div>\n<p>投资要点名创优品公布2023/12/31季度业绩，盈利能力再创新高，指引乐观：CY23Q4营收同比+54%至38.4亿元(国内+56%，海外+52%)，毛利率同比+3.2pp至43.1%至单季新高，除汇兑外的经调整净利润率达新高(17.4%)，经调整NPM同比+2.5pp至17.2%。经调整归母净利润同比+80%至6.6亿。24年指引为收入同增20-30%(较20-25%的原指引上调)，利润好于...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024032710004787ba051c&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>名创优品(09896)盈利能力再创新高，看好海外迈入全面加速期</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n名创优品(09896)盈利能力再创新高，看好海外迈入全面加速期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-27 09:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024032710004787ba051c&s=b><strong>国元证券(香港)</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>投资要点名创优品公布2023/12/31季度业绩，盈利能力再创新高，指引乐观：CY23Q4营收同比+54%至38.4亿元(国内+56%，海外+52%)，毛利率同比+3.2pp至43.1%至单季新高，除汇兑外的经调整净利润率达新高(17.4%)，经调整NPM同比+2.5pp至17.2%。经调整归母净利润同比+80%至6.6亿。24年指引为收入同增20-30%(较20-25%的原指引上调)，利润好于...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024032710004787ba051c&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK1249","symbol_name":"综合零售","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024032710004787ba051c&s=b","article_id":"2422072746","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024032710004787ba051c&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2422072746","pubTimestamp":1711502329,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"投资要点名创优品公布2023/12/31季度业绩，盈利能力再创新高，指引乐观：CY23Q4营收同比+54%至38.4亿元，毛利率同比+3.2pp至43.1%至单季新高，除汇兑外的经调整净利润率达新高，经调整NPM同比+2.5pp至17.2%。海外业务全面加速，空间广阔且具备增长确定性，美国直营静待飞轮转动。北美点位已不再是制约因素，人才和组织效能是重点。盈利能力方面，随着国内终端定价毛利率已达此前目标，结构上海外占比/IP产品占比提升会略微带动毛利率表现。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"BK1249":"综合零售","09896":"名创优品","BK1246":"综合货品商店"},"translate_title":"The profitability of Mingchuangpin (09896) has reached a new high, and it is optimistic that overseas will enter a comprehensive acceleration period","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"09896":1},"content_text":"投资要点名创优品公布2023/12/31季度业绩，盈利能力再创新高，指引乐观：CY23Q4营收同比+54%至38.4亿元(国内+56%，海外+52%)，毛利率同比+3.2pp至43.1%至单季新高，除汇兑外的经调整净利润率达新高(17.4%)，经调整NPM同比+2.5pp至17.2%。经调整归母净利润同比+80%至6.6亿。24年指引为收入同增20-30%(较20-25%的原指引上调)，利润好于收入。24年开店目标为国内350-450个，海外550-650个，海外直营/代理各一半。国内：季内营收同增56%，其中门店数+18%/单店+39%，1-2月GMV增13%；海外：季内营收同增52%，其中门店数+18%/单店+31%，1-2月GMV增40%。国内改扩店有充足空间，迈入加速期的海外业务确定性与成长性兼备：展望未来，观点：(1)对国内同店可乐观些，原因是国内改扩店有充足空间。24年1-2月国内同店为同期的95%，市场担忧门店加密和购物中心客流承压影响同店。目前国内约4,000门店，其中有2/3即约2,600个为低于200平的店。考虑到面积及点位优化对店效有显著帮助，门店租约一般为3年，未来3-4年随着加盟商旗下门店租约陆续到期，加盟商有动力改扩店。测算对SSSG有单位数的帮助，预计能弥补门店加密的负面效应。我们预计未来3年国内业务CAGR为10-15%。(2)海外业务全面加速，空间广阔且具备增长确定性，美国直营静待飞轮转动。23年恢复跨国出差后，管理层及员工对海外运作把控力增强。23年底海外门店约2,500个，我们测算中期海外门店空间约7,000(其中直营美国1,000/印度1,000/印尼1,500，代理欧洲1,000/拉美1,000/东亚其他1,500)。北美初步成型，测算得23年美国店效为12-14万美元/月，门店层面利润率双位数。北美点位已不再是制约因素，人才和组织效能是重点。(3)盈利能力方面，随着国内终端定价毛利率已达此前目标(60-65%)，结构上海外占比/IP产品占比提升会略微带动毛利率表现。维持买入评级，给予目标价28.60美元：预计2024/3/31季度营收及Non-IFRS归母净利润分别为36.7/6.0亿元。预计公司24E至26E(新财年以12/31为结算日)营收为171/208/251亿元，同比+24%/+21%/+21%；Non-IFRS归母净利润为28.9/35.2/42.7亿元，同比+24%/+22%/+21%。现价/目标价对应Non-IFRS24E PE分别约16倍/23倍。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2422072746"}