券商调研糖酒会：关注酒企控价，看好酒企估值回升

经济观察网03-21

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端　　炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！　　经济观察网记者郑淯心 3月20日，第110届全国糖酒商品交易会（以下简称“糖酒会”）在成都开幕。相比去年对疫情之后市场复苏、酒企新品发布的关注，“控制价格”“渠道信心”是今年券商调研中的关键词。　　2023年，白酒经销商们头疼的三个问题是...

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3月20日，第110届全国糖酒商品交易会（以下简称“糖酒会”）在成都开幕。相比去年对疫情之后市场复苏、酒企新品发布的关注，“控制价格”“渠道信心”是今年券商调研中的关键词。\n　　2023年，白酒经销商们头疼的三个问题是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hyyj/2024-03-21/doc-inanzvuw7477849.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"600199","symbol_name":"金种子酒","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hyyj/2024-03-21/doc-inanzvuw7477849.shtml","article_id":"2421861033","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"sina","url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hyyj/2024-03-21/doc-inanzvuw7477849.shtml","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}.art_tit_h1{#titleStyle#}a{#lv2TextColor#}.art_time, .art_cite{#sourceStyle#;} .art_cite{margin-left: 3px;}","selectors":".module-article, article","filters":"header, .voice2, .tags, #norm_qrcode_link_auto, .unfold-box, 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3月20日，第110届全国糖酒商品交易会（以下简称“糖酒会”）在成都开幕。相比去年对疫情之后市场复苏、酒企新品发布的关注，“控制价格”“渠道信心”是今年券商调研中的关键词。\n　　2023年，白酒经销商们头疼的三个问题是销量下滑、库存高企、价格倒挂。利润减少的经销商进货动力不足。中国酒业协会报告也显示，与2022年同期相比，2023年1月—5月，36%受访经销商认为自身现金流压力有所增加，48%受访者认为自身库存压力有所增加，51.43%的受访酒行业从业者认为2023年上半年市场遇冷。\n　　情况在2023年下半年也并未好转。今年春节前夕，一位河南经销商告诉记者，动销并不理想，往年同时期库存已经销售了一半，“但今年，仓库满到新拉回来的货都没有地方放”。\n　　在糖酒会现场，上述经销商表示，今年没有选择代理新产品。去年这时，他新代理了两家产品的经销权。但正是其中一个产品的进货价低于市场实际的销售价格，他不愿意亏本销售，货只能在仓库里越堆越多。\n　　经销商的压力也传导给了上游厂商。记者在糖酒会现场遇到几位中型酒企负责人，但他们这次来糖酒会的身份只是参观者，而非参展商。其中一位负责人表示，“没必要花钱办展，招商情况不会理想。”\n　　面对这种“不理想”，多家酒企发布了价格调配及市场投放政策。\n　　方正证券所长助理、食品饮料首席分析师王泽华接受记者采访时表示，近期茅台（600519.SH）、五粮液（000858.SZ）控量提价后，今世缘（603369.SH）开系、郎酒红花郎、汾酒青花、水晶剑等核心单品均发布产品升级或提价政策，头部企业挺价动作更为积极。以五粮液普五为例，当前批价已普遍提升至950元左右，团购价升至970元—980元，较节前低谷回升30元—40元，价盘崩塌的风险基本消除。\n　　华泰证券食品饮料团队在本次糖酒会调研还发现，春节后头部酒企也已基本完成2024年第一季度的回款。\n　　“从各地渠道反馈看，虽然春节后行业逐步进入淡季，但渠道信心及反馈相对较好，终端仍能正常周转，尤其是300元以内的大众价格带的产品需求仍在，老名酒开瓶率较好，库存保持可控。”华创证券食品饮料首席分析师欧阳予（金麒麟分析师）说。\n　　而随着主流单品的批价提升，在光大证券（维权）食品饮料行业首席分析师叶倩瑜看来，白酒板块估值将进一步恢复。过去一年，白酒股股价继续下跌。万得数据显示，2023年白酒上市公司总市值减少10.13%，蒸发近4384亿元。\n　　王泽华认为，经过调整后，酒企的估值分位数处于历史偏低水平，茅台估值消化至26倍左右，五粮液估值在14倍至15倍之间，部分次高端和区域白酒的估值为10倍左右。整个行业向龙头公司加速集中，龙头公司业绩持续增长将带来估值回归。\n　　近期，水井坊（600779.SH）、顺鑫农业（000860.SZ）、舍得酒业（600702.SH）、金种子酒（600199.SH）等多家酒企，密集发布增持或回购计划。华泰证券食品饮料团队近期观察认为，主要白酒企业分红、增持、回购等动作频繁，有望对估值形成支撑。\n　　“酒企面临着资本定价的重构，在头部酒企产品市场价格、业绩表现逐步稳定后，资本将用更长期的自由现金流折现的方式定价。”欧阳予说。\n　　在华创证券副总裁兼研究所所长董广阳（金麒麟分析师）看来，在当前经济与行业周期双重叠加的影响下，酒业发展仍处于放缓阶段，马太（金麒麟分析师）效应将进一步加剧。\n\n股市回暖，抄底炒股先开户！智能定投、条件单、个股雷达……送给你>>\n\n\n新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：何松琳","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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