天风证券：24年春节白酒行业仍存三大超预期点

智通财经网03-21

天风证券发布研究报告称，24年春节期间白酒行业总体表现平稳&内部强分化(符合预期)，预计量同比接近持平，价仍保持弱增长态势(消费升级&降级同时存在，大众酒内部升级动力仍强劲)，“渠道利润稳定”+”动销表现优秀“的高端/大众品牌表现优，”开门红“为其达到全年业绩目标概率再添一砖。白酒行业仍关注三条主线：①具备α，即业绩稳定性：贵州茅台(600519.SH)/山西汾酒(600809.SH)/古井贡酒(...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2421399390?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2024-03-21 10:10","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","id":"2421399390","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"天风证券：24年春节白酒行业仍存三大超预期点","media":"智通财经网","content":"<div>\n<p>天风证券发布研究报告称，24年春节期间白酒行业总体表现平稳&内部强分化(符合预期)，预计量同比接近持平，价仍保持弱增长态势(消费升级&降级同时存在，大众酒内部升级动力仍强劲)，“渠道利润稳定”+”动销表现优秀“的高端/大众品牌表现优，”开门红“为其达到全年业绩目标概率再添一砖。白酒行业仍关注三条主线：①具备α，即业绩稳定性：贵州茅台(600519.SH)/山西汾酒(600809.SH)/古井贡酒(...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/ggscyd/2024-03-21/doc-inanzvuw7508395.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"sina","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>天风证券：24年春节白酒行业仍存三大超预期点</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n天风证券：24年春节白酒行业仍存三大超预期点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-21 10:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/ggscyd/2024-03-21/doc-inanzvuw7508395.shtml><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>天风证券发布研究报告称，24年春节期间白酒行业总体表现平稳&内部强分化(符合预期)，预计量同比接近持平，价仍保持弱增长态势(消费升级&降级同时存在，大众酒内部升级动力仍强劲)，“渠道利润稳定”+”动销表现优秀“的高端/大众品牌表现优，”开门红“为其达到全年业绩目标概率再添一砖。白酒行业仍关注三条主线：①具备α，即业绩稳定性：贵州茅台(600519.SH)/山西汾酒(600809.SH)/古井贡酒(...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/ggscyd/2024-03-21/doc-inanzvuw7508395.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK0276","symbol_name":"资本市场","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/ggscyd/2024-03-21/doc-inanzvuw7508395.shtml","article_id":"2421399390","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"sina","url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/ggscyd/2024-03-21/doc-inanzvuw7508395.shtml","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}.art_tit_h1{#titleStyle#}a{#lv2TextColor#}.art_time, .art_cite{#sourceStyle#;} .art_cite{margin-left: 3px;}","selectors":".module-article, article","filters":"header, .voice2, .tags, #norm_qrcode_link_auto, .unfold-box, .action","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2421399390","pubTimestamp":1710987000,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"sina","name":"sina"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"股市回暖，抄底炒股先开户！智能定投、条件单、个股雷达……","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"sina.com.cn","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"601162":"天风证券","BK0276":"资本市场"},"translate_title":"Tianfeng Securities: There are still three major over-expected points in the liquor industry in the Spring Festival of 24 years","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"601162":1},"content_text":"天风证券发布研究报告称，24年春节期间白酒行业总体表现平稳&内部强分化(符合预期)，预计量同比接近持平，价仍保持弱增长态势(消费升级&降级同时存在，大众酒内部升级动力仍强劲)，“渠道利润稳定”+”动销表现优秀“的高端/大众品牌表现优，”开门红“为其达到全年业绩目标概率再添一砖。白酒行业仍关注三条主线：①具备α，即业绩稳定性：贵州茅台(600519.SH)/山西汾酒(600809.SH)/古井贡酒(000596.SZ)/泸州老窖(000568.SZ)/今世缘(603369.SH)等；②或存潜在边际变化：五粮液(000858.SZ)/洋河股份(002304.SZ)等；③β主线：舍得酒业(600702.SH)/水井坊(600779.SH)/酒鬼酒(000799.SZ)等。天风证券主要观点如下：春节期间消费情况：从交运/餐饮/电影/旅游等数据看，多实现同比双位数增长，为春节白酒动销奠定良好基础。超预期点一：具备α酒企多完成春节回款目标。24年春节回款端分化明显，呈三大特征：① 提前：24年春节相对偏晚，酒企普遍于11-12月启动开门红回款。② 稳健：虽24年春节回款时间点偏早，但是整体回款节奏平稳(头部酒企的完成进度符合预期)。③ 分化：回款进度分化;回款方式分化。超预期点二：实际春节动销或较市场此前悲观预期好。春节动销分化明显，呈两大特征：①量平：24年春节期间500-800元价位带销量预计表现靠后，而高端酒/大众酒销量预计仍正增长，整体动销预计接近去年同期水平。②分化：价位分化明显。价位上看，24年高端酒/大众酒动销较好：高端酒节前提价利于渠道利润补充+价盘稳定，加速动销；大众酒则受益于酒厂针对动销及消费者大幅提升投放费用(扫码红包等)，使得强品牌酒企动销表现优秀。超预期点三：节后批价稳定度略超预期。春节批价分化明显，节后表现稳定，库存保持正常：在经历了1月初批价回落后，节前1-2周批价走势持续向上&部分品牌回款加速，节后批价正常回落，整体价盘表现稳定&库存处于正常区间。思考1之展望24Q1：从回款进度看，基于高端酒/区域酒实际回款达成率多超预期，考虑23Q1板块业绩基数总体正常/偏低+回款节奏/库存健康度差异大+区域间表现分化+场景间表现分化，天风证券预计高端酒&徽酒&汾酒业绩表现良好，而次高端酒23Q1虽然基数总体偏低，但部分酒企仍面临高库存+弱动销+回款压力略大问题。思考2之名酒提价的意义&后续是否会有提价潮：①此前贵州茅台上提出厂价更多在于解决渠道利润分配的不合理问题，而五粮液/剑南春节前提价意义更多在于解决批价倒挂问题/促进回款/提振渠道信心/梳理价盘；②名酒节前提价意义大于节后，而大众酒节后提价意义大于节前，预计部分大众品牌或将于淡季(Q2)进行提价/升级以保证强市场竞争力。风险提示：供过于求；食品安全风险；需求疲软；市场同质化产品竞争加剧。\n\n股市回暖，抄底炒股先开户！智能定投、条件单、个股雷达……送给你>>\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2421399390"}